The Cardinals Shouldn’t Extend Yadier Molina
Signing Molina is not ideal for a team looking towards the future
The Cardinals are a storied franchise. Legends and memories adorn every wall inside the new Busch Stadium — Stan the Man, Orlando Cepada, Bob Gibson and Dizzy Dean remind players that greatness can be achieved here. Living Hall of Famers and Cardinals alum visit spring training every year to scout the new team and impart wisdom on the new Redbird youth. It’s and experience few other organizations in any sport can emulate.
Eleven World Series championships and 19 pennant wins punctuate a history defined by organizational excellence. They have a culture that others strive to emulate and a success that has been difficult to replicate. An important part of that culture is understanding when it’s time to move on.
Since Yadi took over catching duties full time in 2004, the Cardinals have had the second-most regular season wins, and first in MLB postseason wins. Yadi was an integral part in the 2006 and 2011 championship teams, and was third in MVP voting in 2013 when the Cardinals won the NL pennant. He’s accumulated eight Gold Gloves and a sterling reputation as a defensive catcher. Statisticians are still ironing out the kinks in how defensive value is measured, but Yadi generally grades out well, even as he approaches his 35th birthday.
There are many intangibles he brings that make him a great player for a team to employ. Yadi is a leader in the clubhouse, and an example of how young players should approach the grind of the 162-game season. #4 is somehow both playful and workmanlike in his efforts, and by all reports is one of the most fun players on the team.
I can praise Molina’s past accomplishments ad nausem, but the bottom line is he’s 35. He’s stated that he wants to be one of the top paid catchers in baseball — Buster Posey makes $22.2mil this year. If Molina insists the Cardinals top (or approach) that, John Mozeliak & Co. should certainly balk. A contract of that value for any length of time (I’ve heard three years being an estimated length) will certainly be paying for a chunk of Molina’s decline.
The key to being a great GM is finding players that generate more value than their contract. Last year, Molina was worth 2.4 fWAR and was paid $14.2 million for his efforts. On the free agent market, 1 fWAR is valued at $9mil, meaning Yadi generated a surplus value of ~$7.2 million for the Cardinals. He will make the same this year, and ZiPS projects him to be worth the same fWAR. Molina’s current contract includes a mutual option for the 2018 season valued at the same $14.5 million figure.
As players age, the likelihood of them generating surplus value for their team decreases. If Molina is paid $20 million per year, he needs to average just over 2.2 fWAR per year to break even on the contract. If Mozeliak signs Molina to an extension of that dollar amount and length, he’s doing so for sentimental reasons — it doesn’t make business sense. In addition, the Cardinals have top catching prospect Carson Kelly waiting in the wings to take over for Yadi starting in 2018. Allowing a potential asset to languish on the bench or in Memphis for three more years is a waste, so trading him for unknown return would seem to be the only option.
This rumored extension would cover his age 36–38 seasons. How have other historical greats fared at those ages?
Time is not kind, especially to catchers. They play the most physically demanding position on the field. Even the greats aren’t immune to Father Time, and the Cardinals would be wise to consider the increased risk of injury and diminished value aging imposes on even the most exceptional athletes. Yadi’s leadership, defense and pitch-framing should age well, but it’s difficult to contribute to the team if you’re on the disabled list.
Johnny Bench retired at 35, after spending three seasons at first and third base to prolong his career. Ivan Rodriguez was a shell of himself after 32. Yogi Berra managed a great season at 38, but held on too long. Joe Mauer switched to first base due to concussions and hasn’t ever really recovered.
Good organizations find ways to move on from their stars when it’s time to say goodbye. The Cardinals let Albert Pujols walk following his 2011 campaign and he signed a massive contract with the Angels. He’s been some combination of hurt and ineffective for most of his time in LA, and the Cardinals clearly made the right decision. Jim Edmonds was traded for David Freese when Tony La Russa wouldn’t guarantee him playing time. I think Cardinals fans remember David Freese rather fondly, no?
Just because the Cardinals can afford to pay an aging star to stay doesn’t mean they should. Letting Yadi play his last year or two somewhere else doesn’t make what he has already achieved any less special, and demonstrates organizational discipline consistent with what the front office is always telling their players. Not one player is above the team, or the goal of winning championships. Not even Yadi.
The Cardinals should say goodbye for now, and welcome #4 back to the Cardinals Hall of Fame with open arms after he retires. It’s better to say goodbye a year too early than three years too late.
