Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series: Felipe Rivero
There’s a market for dominant relievers, and Rivero is certainly among the top of the list when it comes to them
26-year-old Felipe Rivero is one of the most dominant relief arms in baseball right now. If you add his Strikeout Percentage (K%) and Ground Ball Percentage (GB%) together, he’s inducing them at an 88.7% clip this season. Not only is Rivero dominant, but he is under team control through 2021. That makes him one of the most appealing trade chips in the game, if the Pirates decide to cash in. They are in a curious position; not contending this year and possibly selling off Andrew McCutchen/Gerrit Cole, but still maintaining a strong foundation to contend in the near future. Because we have written articles about possible McCutchen and Cole trade scenarios, we will continue to do so here with Rivero.
Relievers don’t fit into our typical trade valuation system. They are volatile and are valued more for their peripherals than an all-encompassing statistic like Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The most effective way to assess Rivero’s value is to find a comp, and I think I have an effective one:
Rivero has a little less control, but his peripherals are also a little better than Giles’. He has a stronger Strikeout to Walk Percentage (K-BB%) and has already come close to eclipsing Giles’ 35 goose eggs (a FiveThirtyEight statistic) in July, while hanging right there in Home Runs Allowed per 9 Innings (HR/9) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). It’s fair to say Rivero’s value will be similar to Giles’ back in 2015.
Here’s the Giles trade:
Astros receive:
RHP Ken Giles
Phillies receive:
RHP Vincent Velasquez (backend starter with six years of control)
LHP Brett Oberholtzer (fringe starter with five years of control)
RHP Mark Appel (#31 prospect on Baseball America)
RHP Harold Arauz (throw in)
RHP Thomas Eshelman (throw in)
That trade was so interesting, because the haul for Giles was both hefty and exclusively pitchers. As you can see, it was centered around a backend starter with six years of control, a fringe starter with five years of control, and a top 50 pitching prospect. Now, let’s see if any teams interested in a top reliever have something that matches up!
Tampa Bay Rays
Rumor has it that Tampa Bay was asked for Brent Honeywell or Willy Adames in a potential deal for an elite reliever. While the team and elite reliever are anonymous, it’s very possible that it was Rivero. Of course, Tampa declined to include either of those guys (both in the Baseball America Top 20), but the Mark Appel piece would have to be LHP/1B Brendan McKay (#40). That’s probably enough to turn Tampa Bay away as McKay could climb the rankings quickly, but he isn’t eligible to be traded until after the World Series this year anyways. As for a backend starter, RHP Matt Andriese seems like a solid fit, and RHP Austin Pruitt is a good candidate for “fringe starter.”
Washington Nationals
Despite acquiring Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson this week, I don’t think Washington can be counted out of the sweepstakes for Rivero, whom they traded to Pittsburgh last year in the Mark Melancon deal. My Washington package for Rivero begins with a man who recently underwent Tommy John Surgery — Joe Ross. Ross is considerably better than any backend starter I am going to name on this list, but with his injury, he will be under team control for three playable seasons. As for fringe starters, Washington’s rotation has been really healthy, so RHP Austin Roth hasn’t gotten a chance in the big leagues yet. However, he is the 10th best prospect in their organization and big league ready according to Baseball America, so we will include him here. Additionally, the Giles package calls for a top 100 pitching prospect, so RHP Erick Fedde would be the Mark Appel of this deal. That is an extremely high price to pay for someone the Nats traded for a rental last year.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have a thinned out farm system, but they do have No. 87 prospect LHP Jason Groome. They also have RHP Brian Johnson, a fringe starter controllable through 2022. LHP Henry Owens doesn’t have the same potential that Vincent Velasquez has, but that’s the best Boston can do. They probably can’t come up with a Ken Giles package, despite being connected to David Robertson before his trade to the Yankees.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are known to be in on bullpen help. They have acquired David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle, which probably puts them out of play for Rivero, but have the assets to make a lot of deals, so it’s worth mentioning here. The Vince Velasquez equivalent could be RHP Chad Green, a backend starter under control through 2022. The Brett Oberholtzer equivalent could be RHP Luis Cessa, who has considerably lesser stuff, but is a starter under control through 2022. RHP Chance Adams was No. 56 on Baseball America’s Midseason Top 100, so he would fit as the top pitching prospect.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The saying goes, “A player’s market is only hot if the Dodgers are involved.” You all saw this tweet about relief ace Zach Britton:
So the Dodgers are considering adding a stud reliever. Why not Rivero? Start the package with backend starter Ross Stripling. Stripling was serviceable to the Dodgers in 2016 when the starting rotation dealt with a rash of injuries, and is under control through 2022. As for a fringe starter, the Dodgers could send RHP Brock Stewart. Like Stripling, Stewart has bounced back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen, but he is also controlled through 2022. The top pitching prospect would have to be RHP Yadier Alvarez, who is No. 60 on Baseball America’s Midseason Top 100. RHP Walker Buehler is No. 17 on the list, but the Dodgers aren’t willing to include him in any trades because they see him as a bullpen piece as early as this year and a rotation piece as early as next year.
Where do you think Felipe Rivero is going to land? What are the odds he is traded this month? How do you feel about these prospect packages, and do you have one of your own? Tweet us your answers @ltheunbalancedl and be sure to keep following our Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series!
