Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series: Jose Quintana
Finding value in the White Sox-Cubs Quintana trade
One of the most highly sought-after trade candidates in baseball is White Sox lefty Jose Quintana. Quintana, who has produced the sixth most Wins Above Replacement among starting pitchers since 2013, is heading to the Cubs for OF Eloy Jimenez, RHP Dylan Cease, and INFs Matt Rose and Bryant Flete. After dealing Chris Sale to Boston for a king’s ransom centered around Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech, Chicago General Manager Rick Hahn made it clear that he would not be trading away his other ace for a discount.
Quintana is so valuable for many reasons. Aside from his status as one of the top pitchers in the game and being left-handed, he is also signed to one of the most attractive contracts in baseball. He is under contract through 2020 for a little more than $30 million — a value that he is worth in a year’s worth of work. At the same time, there is some stigma that Quintana is not a true ace; he has struggled in 2017 and has generally flown under the radar throughout his career. Quintana’s 5.60 ERA in the first two months of the season raised skepticism over how valuable he really is.
Quintana’s struggles at the outset of this season are mostly tied to giving up too many homers, which is unlike him. FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards wrote an excellent piece outlining the fact that Quintana probably hasn’t lost any of his ability to suppress home runs, and I agree. We can take a quick look at his Home Runs Allowed per 9 Innings (HR/9) and see that he has been back to normal over the last month and a half:
Clearly, there are better ways to analyze whether Jose Quintana has a home run problem or not, but this will serve our purposes today. Looking at Quintana’s HR/9 this season in a rolling average chart also suggests that he is completely fine:
There are three big clunkers in there that weigh down his overall performance, but I’ll definitely bet on him staying at or around his career norms from here on out. Even with these hiccups in 2017, Quintana has been worth 2 WAR so far, which is literally the pace he has been working at since becoming one of the top pitchers in the game. Again, I don’t think there is any discount to be had, so this is my value projection chart for Quintana using projected WAR, projected cost per WAR, and his salary to determine surplus:
$84.75 million is nothing to sneeze at, so it will take a lot to pry Quintana. There have been many rumors involving interested parties for Quintana, as well as other obvious fits; I will cover them all here. As you may know, I use prospect valuations provided by the Point of Pittsburgh based on their position and placement on the Baseball America Top 100 list. The full explanation can be found here. These were other Quintana’s possible suitors. Let’s see if the White Sox got the best possible deal:
Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates tried to acquire Quintana in the offseason, although the state of their team is different just seven months later. Pittsburgh is hard to read; they have young, cost-controlled talents, but seem likely to deal away their best position player and pitcher at some point soon. It’s impossible to determine what direction Neal Huntington is taking his team from here on out, but a Quintana package could feature outfielder Austin Meadows ($62 million) and shortstop Kevin Newman ($20.6 million). Two of their top prospects would be a tough pill to swallow, but it keeps young players like Tyler Glasnow, Mitch Keller, and Josh Bell in the organization; in other words, an in-between move for an in-between team.
Milwaukee Brewers:
One of the most entertaining parts of 2017 is seeing the Brewers seriously contend for the postseason, and now they are showing up in Jose Quintana rumors. Their rotation has taken hits due to injury, so acquiring a long term piece like Quintana would give them footing in 2017 and beyond. With one of the deepest farm systems in the game, the Brew Crew could make a monster offer centered around uber prospect Lewis Brinson ($62 million) and at least any one of pitchers Brandon Woodruff ($29.8 million), Josh Hader ($16.5 million), or Luis Ortiz ($16.5 million). That would be a very bold move by David Stearns, but could also pay huge dividends for his Cinderella team.
Texas Rangers:
Texas has also made their rounds on the Jose Quintana rumor circuit. The rumors have since been shot down, and Texas is now in a position similar to Pittsburgh (they too have a pitcher who will be featured in this trade deadline series). Texas also does not have the typical capital to swing a Quintana trade, with their best prospect being outfielder Leody Taveras ($38.2 million). They do have interesting young major league assets, such as Jurickson Profar, but it’s hard to tell whether Chicago would want to make a player with his injury history a headliner in a Quintana deal. A trade to Texas is not likely.
Houston Astros:
I should clarify — a trade to the Texas Rangers is not likely. The Houston Astros, on the other hand, seem to be one of the prime candidates to acquire Quintana as they march toward the postseason. For reference, here’s the package Chicago asked for last offseason from Houston for Quintana. While the Astros have resisted including both Kyle Tucker ($62 million) and Francis Martes ($29.8 million) in a Quintana deal, that is going to be what it takes to get him. If they aren’t willing to include Martes under any circumstances, RHP Franklin Perez ($29.8 million) or outfielder Derek Fisher ($22.4 million) as the secondary piece to Tucker could be enough to sway Rick Hahn. This is the team to watch in the Quintana sweepstakes.
Washington Nationals:
The Nationals have a pretty deep rotation, but they are mentioned in Quintana rumors here, so it’s due diligence discussing the possibility. They do have a big fish that Chicago would be looking for in outfielder Victor Robles ($73.5 million), but from there it would probably cost more. Dealing away Robles and more prospects such as RHP Erick Fedde ($16.5 million) or outfielder Juan Soto ($20.6 million) is probably too much for Washington to bear, considering their other needs. It’s possible, but it’s not likely.
New York Yankees:
Another contending team in need of starting pitching that has been connected to Quintana in the past. Yankees GM Brian Cashman is openly cautious about making trades for a big fish, so it’s hard to see him trading away the blue chips that Rick Hahn wants in a Quintana deal. Shortstop Gleyber Torres ($73.5 million) is probably untouchable, given his proximity to the majors and recent injury, and outfielder Clint Frazier ($38.2 million) is already getting playing time in the big leagues. From there, the best prospect available is outfielder Blake Rutherford ($38.2 million), but he is far away from the majors and not the big fish that Chicago would ideally acquire. The Yankees farm is deep enough to trade for anybody, but it’s not top heavy enough to realistically match up with Rick Hahn.
Los Angeles Dodgers
We haven’t seen the Dodgers show up in Quintana rumors, but I’m including them here because it is a fit. While Dodgers pitching ranks second in fWAR this season, the only starter with a consistent track record over a two year period on their team is Clayton Kershaw. I don’t think it’s likely Los Angeles makes a play for Quintana, but they could make an attractive offer with either RHP Walker Buehler ($39 million) or outfielder Alex Verdugo ($38.2 million) as the centerpieces and other good prospects, such as RHP Yadier Alvarez ($16.5 million) or second baseman Willie Calhoun ($22.4 million) rounding out the deal.
Chicago Cubs
Did anybody think this was going to happen? So many great options so far and a stigma that North-Siders don’t deal with South-Siders led me to believe that a deal wasn’t on the table, and yet here we are. The Cubs need pitching for the long haul, and they had the resources to acquire it. Outfielder Eloy Jimenez ($73.5 million) will be the headliner in the Quintana trade that actually materialized, and the package also features RHP Dylan Cease ($15.6 million).
For those of you adding up at home, those Cubs values add up to $89.1 million — a figure very close to the $84.75 million price tag we put on Quintana in this exercise. It’s a perfect trade that follows our valuations, and gives us a sense of validity as we continue this trade deadline series. Don’t worry — the next pieces will come out before the trade candidates are actually traded.
What are your thoughts about this trade? How do you feel about the other possible prospect packages, and do you have one of your own? Tweet us your answers @ItheunbalancedI and be sure to keep following our Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series!
