Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series: Justin Verlander
Verlander is an aging franchise player on a franchise going nowhere. Can Detroit avoid the Ruben Amaro-Phillies fiasco?
The Detroit Tigers began their long awaited rebuild this month when they traded outfielder J.D. Martinez to the Arizona Diamondbacks for prospects. Mike Ilitch, who owned the Tigers from 1992 until his death in February of this year, was loathe to allow the Tigers front office to rebuild — despite an aging roster — because he was aware of his advanced age; he wanted the Tigers to win a World Series championship before his passing. That mission for the front office, doubling down on an aging roster by adding even more highly paid veterans, has left the Tigers in a difficult place to begin their rebuild. Their assets are almost all over the age of 30, and they all carry significant salary commitments. One such example is longtime ace Justin Verlander, who has played his entire career in a Tigers uniform.
In Verlander, the Tigers have a pitcher who produced 5.2 Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) last season and is under contract through 2019. This would be a great draw in terms of prospect capital, but Verlander is 34 years old, comes with a $56 million price tag, and is struggling due to a 4.14 Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9). Many will look at Verlander’s age and say he has finally begun his decline; many said the same things about him before his resurgence in 2016. This article by August Fagerstrom covered the adjustments Verlander made to combat the decline in his fastball velocity. Possessing a fastball with an extremely high spin rate, Verlander optimized it by throwing it exclusively up in the zone. In 2017, it’s been pretty much the same case:
The 2017 graphic on the right shows that Verlander is locating it even higher than last year, and this may be the problem for him. A lot of his deep counts and walks have been due to batters laying off that fastball. In 2016, batters swung at his fastballs outside the strike zone 34.7% of the time, while that number has declined to 28.4% this year. The walks and deep counts affect how long Verlander stays in the game too: in 2016, he averaged 6.67 innings per start (an out away from the 7th each time out), but is just shy of 6 innings per start (5.9) this year.
Fagerstrom also highlighted Verlander’s slider, which he praised as becoming a plus pitch for the first time in Verlander’s career. The problem for Verlander is that the line drive rate against his slider has increased from 19.3% in 2016 to 24.7% this year. Accordingly, the Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) against it has gone from an extremely low .210 to an extremely high .321, while the Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against it has gone from a paltry 41 to 123. Verlander is throwing it just as hard and locating it in the same spot, so it seems like hitters have simply picked up on the pitch after struggling to adjust. It also seems like he’s pressing his luck with his fastball location and paying the price.
Unfortunately for Verlander, his curveball is also an issue. After inducing a 34.5% swing rate on curves outside the strike zone in 2016, that number has dropped to 28.5% this year (which is part of the reason he is getting into deep counts). He is getting fewer strikes on the pitch, with a decline from 63.8% to 58.5% this year, so that is part of the problem for him as well. Looking at Verlander’s statistics through each month, his struggles have been pretty consistent; in other words, there isn’t much to look for in recent improvements or positive regression. For what it’s worth, ZiPS Projections believe that Verlander will improve his walk rates for the rest of the season; that’s because ZiPS considers Verlander’s previous body of work and believes that will play into positive regression for him. Personally, if there’s any improvements Verlander has made throughout the year, I haven’t seen them:
Extrapolating data from a sample size of 124 innings pitched is a dangerous game, but one I am going to play today. I don’t believe projection systems are perfect for a player with a career path as unique as Justin Verlander. Instead of using ZiPS as my baseline projections in a value chart, I’m going to calculate Verlander’s rest of season value using his consistent 2017 averages of 5.9 innings per start and the Tigers’ 60 remaining games (of which Verlander will start 12) to get 70 ⅔ innings. Verlander has produced 1.9 fWAR over 124 innings so far, and over 70 ⅔ more innings, he would produce 1 fWAR through the rest of the season (for a season total of 2.9). That is my valuation on Verlander for this chart to assess his trade value:
That is a lot of negative value. The Tigers are going to have to eat at least $22 million if they want to get any value for Verlander, but reports have said they are only willing to eat this season’s remaining portion. That same report quotes rival executives as saying that the Tigers will need to bump that number up to $25M — $30M if they hope to see a good prospect return for Verlander, so that gives me confidence about our value chart here. Anybody can eat the contract and acquire him for peanuts, so we’ll be working under the assumption Detroit wants to get a top 100 guy back for Verlander. Let’s take a look at all of the teams connected to him in recent months:
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have been connected to Verlander, Sonny Gray, and Yu Darvish this summer, especially with Clayton Kershaw hitting the disabled list. My bet is that they go hard after a rental like Darvish, especially because their arms are mostly under control after this season. Verlander would be an interesting get, but Detroit would have to eat an insane amount (about $45 million) to poach a top 100 such as RHP Yadier Alvarez or 2B Willie Calhoun from them.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox just lost David Price to a mysterious injury. Rick Porcello is struggling. Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t been able to consistently put it together yet. They could stand to pick up an experienced starter like Verlander. Again, under the assumption that Detroit eats an obscene portion of the contract, the best Detroit can probably do is 3B Michael Chavis. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Sox reevaluate their position in August, decide they need a starter, and make a deal for Verlander for the stretch run.
Milwaukee Brewers
Is it too early for the Brewers to buy? They hedged on acquiring Jose Quintana, seeing him go to the rival Cubs. They also aren’t giving the Yankees much of a fight for Sonny Gray, either. Would they be willing to part with RHP Luis Ortiz or LHP Josh Hader in a deal for Verlander if Detroit eats a lot of the contract? It’s not likely, but if they are still in it in August, maybe that’s when they choose to pick up the phone.
Washington Nationals
Do the Nationals want another starting pitcher with Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross hurt? Absolutely. Are they motivated enough to move a significant piece for one? Probably not as much as they are for a relief ace. Erick Fedde is now in the big league rotation, and it’s difficult to imagine them sending Juan Soto away in a deal that doesn’t net a Zach Britton or someone like him.
Houston Astros
The Astros are on the clock! They could swoop in on the Athletics-Yankees Mexican standoff and acquire Sonny Gray soon. They have improved their rotation already this week with the return of Dallas Keuchel. However, Verlander would bring a veteran presence to Houston for a couple years. Their farm system is deep, but mostly filled with prospects too elite for even a salary relieved Verlander. The only possibility I see for a top 100 going to Detroit here is RHP Forrest Whitley, again if Detroit eats most or all of the contract.
Where do you think Justin Verlander is going to land? What are the odds he is traded before September? How do you feel about these prospect packages, and do you have one of your own? Tweet us your answers @ltheunbalancedl and be sure to keep following our Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series!
