Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series: Sonny Gray
With Jose Quintana off the market, Sonny Gray is poised to be the next pitching domino to fall as the trade deadline approaches
We began our Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series last Thursday with a post on then Chicago White Sox ace Jose Quintana. Quintana, who was traded crosstown to the Chicago Cubs, is the first major domino to fall in this July trade market. Soon, others will follow, and we will cover them all. With one of the top pitchers now off the board, all eyes turn to the next ace likely to be dealt — Oakland’s Sonny Gray.
Sonny Gray has been one of the better pitchers in baseball since he became a full-time big leaguer in 2013. Of course, with the Athletics in the cellar and Gray getting closer and closer to free agency, it’s natural that they want to cash in on an attractive asset. Gray is in the midst of his first arbitration season, so he is in line for two more years of control before hitting the open market following 2019.
A young, cost-controlled ace is always going to demand a premium, but Gray has complicated matters for Oakland. In 2016, Gray inexplicably struggled all year, dealing with two trips to the disabled list sandwiched with a home run problem. Fortunately, Gray seems to have righted the ship in 2017, as you can see here:
Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a statistic that attempts to improve on Earned Run Average (ERA) by creating independence from the defense. It focuses on things directly in Gray’s control; strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and fly balls allowed. As you can see, Gray posted very strong xFIP numbers in 2014 and 2015, had a rough 2016, and has been as strong as ever in 2017. There is a larger year to year differential for Gray if we examine his ERA; this is because he was most likely hurt by a bad defense behind him, as well as an inordinate number of fly balls going over the wall. Whatever the case, we can expect Gray to be a 3.50 xFIP man going forward.
Additionally, his Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio is stronger than ever after taking a hit in 2016; it’s possible injuries on his pitching arm affected his ability to locate pitches. However, the most interesting statistic in this chart is his Hard Hit Rate. You can see nearly identical 25% marks before 2016 for Gray, a big rise to 34% in 2016, but something of a middle ground in 2017. This would typically be something of concern as we evaluate Gray, but I created this rolling average chart using Exit Velocity from Baseball Savant:
Clearly, Gray is doing just fine. He was holding steady at around 89 MPH before his 2016, suffered a big uptick to 90.5 MPH in 2016, but has been operating at a career best since. Additionally, Gray has continued to post stellar ground ball rates; the man is a valuable pitcher in any park, any league.
Since coming off the DL in May, Gray has accumulated 1.5 Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) in only 78.2 innings (13 starts). At the rate he is pitching (six innings a start, 15 more starts to make), Gray will probably pitch another 90 innings this season. At the rate of quality we feel he is pitching, Gray will probably reach a season total of 3 fWAR on the season (or 1.5 fWAR in the remainder of the season). If we use this reasonable fWAR projection, the projected cost per WAR, and his projected salary before hitting free agency, we can determine how much value Gray has as a trade chip:
Note: I used Chris Tillman as an imperfect model for arbitration figures. They have similar counting stats, but a few differences led to Gray making 84% of Tillman’s first arbitration figure, so I used 84% of Tillman’s second and third arbitration figures as my estimates for Gray’s salaries.
By using an aggressive WAR and cost per WAR projection, along with a modest salary projection, we get an optimistic value estimate on Gray. $50 million is a high price for any team to pay in prospects, and the Quintana trade already takes one suitor off the market. As you may already know, I use prospect valuations provided by the Point of Pittsburgh based on their position and placement on the Baseball America Top 100 list. The full explanation can be found here. Here are the possible landing spots for Sonny Gray:
Los Angeles Dodgers
The same pitching caveats I applied to a Jose Quintana trade apply here. Dodgers pitching is collectively second in fWAR this season, but the only starter with a consistent track record going back to 2015 is Clayton Kershaw. That doesn’t change the fact that Andrew Friedman is loathe to deal outfielder Alex Verdugo ($38.2 million) or RHP Walker Buehler ($39 million), so a deal for Gray is difficult to make without conceding on either of those two. Additionally, Los Angeles would probably have to include one of RHP Yadier Alvarez ($16.5 million) or second baseman Willie Calhoun ($22.4 million), which is enough for them to bow out of the Gray sweepstakes.
Houston Astros
One team heavily in connection with Oakland regarding Gray has been the Houston Astros. Houston has been linked to Gray and Jose Quintana in the past six months, obviously declining to splurge on Quintana. Gray, however, would cost less for Houston. The obvious targets for Oakland would be outfielder Kyle Tucker ($62 million) or RHP Francis Martes ($29.8 million). Either of them as the centerpiece in a Gray deal would line up, but it’s difficult to imagine Houston parting with either. One alternative is a package of RHP Franklin Perez ($29.8 million) and one of outfielder Derek Fisher ($20.6 million) or RHP Forrest Whitley ($16.5 million). That package would also line up with Gray’s value, but it’s not clear if any of those guys is a big enough fish for Oakland’s tastes.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have never been connected to Gray in the past, and they are most likely to add a bat or two at the deadline. However, their rotation is very young, despite its undeniable long-term upside. Acquiring a pitcher like Gray would go a long way down the stretch and in the postseason, especially considering his strong ground ball tendencies. A straight up swap of Gray for shortstop Brendan Rodgers ($73.5 million) isn’t likely from the Rockies’ end, and Colorado’s other tradable prospects, RHP Riley Pint ($15.6 million) and corner infielder Ryan McMahon ($20.6 million) are probably not enough to entice Oakland. However, here is an idea that would be a big splash; Colorado gives up their uber prospect Brendan Rodgers, but Oakland sends Gray and first base rental Yonder Alonso. This is pure speculation, and Alonso will be covered in this Trade Deadline Series, but I feel it’s a possibility for both clubs to look into.
Minnesota Twins
This is the second of three unorthodox potential homes for Gray. Minnesota has surprised many this year and find themselves in Wild Card contention. They are also interested in adding talent to help make that Wild Card push in the form of young, cost-controlled starters like Gray. The farm in Minnesota is not very deep, but they do have shortstop Nick Gordon ($62 million), who would be an incredible centerpiece for Gray. It’s a high price to pay for Minnesota, but they don’t have much else in the cupboard, and now that Cleveland has gotten going, they will not be looking back.
Milwaukee Brewers
The leaders of the National League Central are in no rush to respond to their division rival’s acquisition of Jose Quintana, but they would be very wise to add to their team. They have been linked to both Quintana and Gray, and it’s clear that they could use some help in the rotation. A deal for Gray could work with pitchers Brandon Woodruff ($29.8 million) and Luis Ortiz ($16.5 million). It’s also possible Milwaukee goes for broke and offers outfielder Lewis Brinson ($62 million) in something of a one-for-one swap, but that doesn’t fit Brewers GM David Stearns’ modus operandi. Cashing in assets for Gray would be bold, but now is as good a time as ever to strike in the NL Central.
New York Yankees
At first glance, seeing New York never truly making a play for Quintana would lead one to believe that they aren’t ready to cash in their prospect chips for a pitcher just yet. However, the price for Gray isn’t as costly as it was for Quintana, and New York doesn’t have to compete with a headliner like Eloy Jimenez here either. Additionally, Oakland’s Yonder Alonso is a first base rental that the Yankees could desperately use, so a package deal could be in play here as well. Reports are also coming in that Michael Pineda will be undergoing Tommy John Surgery, so he is lost for the year; the Yankees need more pitching. The Yankees could draw on their impressive depth to create a package starring outfielder Blake Rutherford ($38.2 million) as the centerpiece, supplemented by any one of outfielder Estevan Florial ($22.4 million), RHP Chance Adams ($16.5 million), or LHP Justus Sheffield ($16.5 million). I also believe shortstop Jorge Mateo, recently a consensus top 50 prospect, has recouped enough value in 2017 to be included as a satisfactory secondary piece. This match is perfect for both Oakland and New York, and a trade of Gray to the Yankees is what I’ll put my money on this month.
Chicago Cubs
Think Theo is satisfied? Think again:
The farm system itself is barren for the Cubs, but they have plenty of young major league assets to deal. Kyle Schwarber, who was allegedly offered for Michael Fulmer, is a possibility here, though I personally believe his value to the Cubs as a left fielder exceeds that of Gray’s to the Cubs. Albert Almora Jr. is most likely going to stay with the Cubs due to their lack of depth in center field, but he’s still a possibility. Ian Happ should absolutely be off-limits in Gray talks, but Javy Baez could be dangled in front of Billy Beane.
Where do you think Sonny Gray is going to land? What are the odds he is traded this month? How do you feel about these prospect packages, and do you have one of your own? Tweet us your answers @ltheunbalancedl and be sure to keep following our Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series!
