Why the Lakers Should take De’Aaron Fox over Lonzo Ball
The Lakers can’t really afford to mess this pick up because they don’t have a first rounder next year.
The Boston Celtics are a lock to select Markelle Fultz once the 2017 NBA Draft begins on June 22nd. They could trade the pick, but unless Anthony Davis becomes available Fultz will be a Celtic.
This leaves the Lakers, holding the second pick in the draft, with the next selection that people will try and project. The popular opinion around the league is that LA will take UCLA guard Lonzo Ball. Pat Riley is the most recent executive to hint at the fact that Ball will be a Laker next season.
However, the Lakers are trying not to tip their hand too much since they don’t have the first pick in the draft. If they show too much interest in Ball, the Celtics could leverage them into trading up to the top spot to take a player that they would get anyway. Due to that possibility, rumors swirled on how the Lakers liked Kentucky guard De’Aaron Fox over Ball.
While that rumor is mostly noise, I think that the Lakers would be better off passing on Ball and taking Fox with the second pick in the draft. They can’t afford to mess up their pick this year, and Fox may be the best fit for their current core of young players.
The one thing that teams should always do when drafting players is to just pick the best available prospect and figure out the fit later. As long as you fill your team with talent you’ll give yourself the best chance to win. With Ball and Fox, they’re close enough in that aspect where LA must consider fit when making their pick.
Playmaking
The Lakers are a team that has a relatively talented group of young players. D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, and Julius Randle are the current core for LA. Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr., and Ivica Zubac are more like role players, so keep the first three I mentioned in mind.
What do Russell, Ingram, and Randle all have in common? They’re scorers. Russell was supposed to be the point guard of the future for the Lakers, but we’ve all learned that he’s much better suited to play as the shooting guard off the ball. While both Fox and Ball are ball dominant guards, Fox is the better option to be the primary playmaker on the Lakers.
There’s a lot to be said about Ball’s passing ability. He led the country in assists at UCLA with 7.6 a game. Per 100 possessions, Ball’s assist numbers jump to 11.7 assists. Fox averaged 4.6 assists per game, and 8.3 per 100 possessions. While the numbers suggest that Ball is the better playmaker, the eye test points the advantage in Fox’s direction.
NBA point guards are constantly put in the pick and roll. While Ball is a great playmaker in transition, Fox is the better pick and roll point guard. He is deadly going to the basket and is able to find his teammate rolling to the hoop without getting bodied on his way through the lane. Ball is too predictable in pick and roll because his shooting mechanics only allow his to be a scoring threat going left. If he’s going right, he’s passing. Being predictable in the NBA is a death sentence.
Don’t get caught up in the hype with Ball being this next level passer. Fox will be able to do plenty in situations that actually make a difference on the outcome of important games.
Scoring and Defense
The Lakers were the worst defensive team in the NBA this past season with a 110.6 defensive rating. This has a lot to do with personnel. Russell, Ingram, and Randle are not good defenders. Neither Fox or Ball are players that will completely change that narrative for the Lakers, but drafting Ball would add another player to LA’s core that is incapable of getting stops.
Ball is a good athlete, but he lacks the physical tools necessary to be an effective defender. Opposing players can blow past him off the dribble, and overwhelm him with strength going towards the basket. Fox is a much better defender now, and has way more potential on that side of the floor due to his elite athleticism.
In terms of scoring, it’s not even close. Fox doesn’t even have a reliable jump shot yet, and he’s more effective scoring than Ball. Fox averaged 30.4 points per 100 possessions at Kentucky, while Ball averaged 22.4. Ball’s lack of quickness and strength keep him from being a threat going to the basket, and his shooting mechanics prevent him from scoring from anywhere besides deep three point land.
Fox isn’t a good shooter, while the numbers suggest that Ball is. I think that when you look at both of their shooting stroke’s, Fox has the better chance at developing a consistent shot. Ball’s shot is hideous and unorthodox, while Fox’s looks pretty good if he simply moves the ball out in front more. Ball will have to change everything about his shot for it to become consistent.
Usually you can look at free throw numbers to determine if a player’s shooting stroke has potential. Ball shot 67% from the line at UCLA while Fox shot 74%, all while attempting more free throws.
So in terms of defense and scoring, two pretty important aspects in the game of basketball, Fox is simply better at both. The Lakers would improve defensively instead of taking another step back, and they would have player that can score off the dribble alongside Russell.
Potential
The Lakers aren’t even ready to make the playoffs in the western conference let alone win a championship. Ball is the player that will be able to come in and produce more right away, but Fox has the higher ceiling long term. This is because of his elite speed and athleticism.
Sure, Ball can make plays in transition and sell tickets for a few years, but what happens when the league figures him out? What happens when there’s nothing else he can do besides run a fast break because he doesn’t have the physical tools to improve against top level competition?
Fox has similar upside to that of John Wall. Wall was a relatively raw point guard that had unlimited upside thanks to his elite speed and athleticism. Fox is the same, in that if he puts everything together, he can be a dynamic point guard for a winning basketball team.
Fox is clearly the better NBA prospect over Ball, and the Lakers would be foolish to take Ball with the second pick in the draft. Fox is better in pick and roll, he’s a better scorer, defender, and has the higher ceiling. I’m a Celtics fan, so I hope the Lakers make the mistake of taking Ball, but that’s simply because it’d be such a stupid move on the part of Magic Johnson.
