Der Junge Falke | The Young Hawk
The Sistine Series: Atlanta Hawks
The moment the Hawks traded Jeff Teague they handed the keys over to Dennis Schroeder. It was a move that most saw as inevitable but not necessarily logical. Because by all traditional and advanced statistics Teague rates out as the better player, other than the very objective “Cool Points” given out by Hawks Superfan Rembert Brown. And in some ways, that is what the Hawks are betting on. They are betting on Dennis Schroeder’s “cool”-ness to help elevate him from meh to good to maybe great. And it isn’t as crazy at it sounds.
Dennis Schroeder is the heir apparent of German basketball. He burst onto the scene as the “German Rondo” due to his long wingspan and outward confidence. This confidence manifested itself in some entertaining ways, from his loud Dell-Curry-inspired (not really) hair style to his Flex GanG skate crew/clothing line/hashtag/lifestyle. And once in Atlanta, he was reframed, due in large part to the close Spurs ties the Hawks have, as the new Tony Parker. It was true, he was an athletic, quick, scoring, European ball handling guard but he was nowhere near ready for the Tony Parker comparison. In fact, somewhat ironically, the player he may be the most similar to is his old tutor, Jeff Teague. But the Hawks need more than that. They need “German Rondo-Parker” not “German Jeff Teague”, and here’s how he can get there.
Three-Point Shooting
When he was drafted there were little to no expectations about his deep ball, hence the Rondo comparisons. And while he has been a huge step up from Rondo, and in terms of volume Parker too, he isn’t nearly efficient enough for it to be an issue for an opposing defense. Something that Teague had worked to turn himself into.
If Schroeder can match Teague’s 100+ makes from above the break at a 39% clip the Hawks offense won’t skip a beat. Even if he returns to his sophomore numbers at a cumulative 35% he could be passable, but anything below that and the 3 pointer just isn’t a big enough threat. The Hawks ran up 60+ wins with a team that seemingly always featured 5 shooters on the floor. Now, with the effective Horford for Howard and Teague for Schroeder, it is possible they have axed two shooters out of the starting lineup. Schroeder needs to make sure that he can keep the defense honest to help his pick and roll play and to generate better looks for others.
Step 1: Match Teague’s deep shooting.
Rim Finishing
In his time coming off the bench, Schroeder has been known as a speed merchant, his straight-line speed coupled with his aggression has left many wowed at some of his finishes around the bucket. But the numbers show huge room for improvement.
Tony Parker is an elite finisher, Schroeder isn't (yet?). But going further into the stats shows an even more egregious separation.
These are the restricted area percentages with a defender within five feet. Parker is almost immune to defenders while Schroeder drops below 50% into what is effectively ice-cold. This was one of Teague’s issues too, Schroeder needs to find a way to finish around bigs. Because for every impressive dunk, there are more missed or blocked layups. The other interesting thing to point out is that Schroeder has a much higher volume of shots. This may show the young German’s inexperience and indiscretion at choosing when to challenge and when to find a teammate. And this could be something that Dwight Howard could help a lot with.
Last year Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond teamed up in one of the best pick and roll attacks in the league. They scored a lot of buckets on Reggie Jackson missed layups, because when the big rotates over to alter Jackson’s shot, the lane is wide open for Drummond. I imagine that Atlanta will look to replicate that with Dennis and Dwight. And it could be an important hedge to Schroeder taking a huge leap forward.
Step 2: Take TP’s layup crash course or develop good chemistry with Dwight.
Distributing
Leading into the final step, running the offense. The Hawks offense has worked much like San Antonio’s where there is no real high assist guy. And both Teague and Schroeder’s per 36 numbers for assists are quite pedestrian and nearly identical. But the role change from bench to starter might be the biggest change in terms of getting others involved. When Schroeder entered the game as a substitute he did so with pace, aggression, and a need to score the basketball. Now from the opening tip he needs to find ways to manage the game, to change speeds and to spread the load on the offensive end. It will be interesting to see if Dwight Howard ruins the Hawksi-ness of the Hawks or if Coach Bud finds some new wrinkle for him. More traditional high pick and roll would be welcome and possibly some Schroeder to Millsap to Howard quick passing sets flowing from that. By any means, I do think that Schroeder does need to improve his overall assist numbers if he wants to graduate beyond the Teague comparison. He doesn’t need to totally enter the Rondo-zone of assist chasing at the expense of actual basketball. The Hawks need to fashion a new offense around this new core and Schroeder needs to be the master of it.
Step 3: Become the offense.
When the Hawks bet on Schroeder and shipped Teague out of town, it is hard to say they were doing it based on past performance. But the tools are there for Schroeder to take a big next step. He has the confidence to take threes, he just needs more consistency. He has the speed and aggression to challenge shot-blockers at the rim, he just needs more dexterity and discretion. And he needs to take ownership of this new Hawks offense. If he’s able to build the scaffold, I can’t wait to see the masterpiece he can create.
