Eye Test: Bridges to Somewhere
The NBA Draft is fast approaching, and fans are seeking any information about who their favorite teams could and should select. A lot of statistics are thrown around every year to make the case for specific prospects, but numbers without context can be misleading. Watching full game tape, while time-consuming, is still the best way to assess a player’s impact and abilities.
Let’s use this method to evaluate two prospects who rank in the 8–12 range on most big boards. They share a name: Villanova’s Mikal Bridges and Michigan State’s Miles Bridges. In a class heavy on big men, and in a league with a high demand for productive wings, the two Bridges could be some of the most important picks in Thursday’s draft. With such high stakes, the eye test can tell us who should be picked first between these two intriguing players.
Mikal
Mikal Bridges is a 6’7, 200-pound small forward from the champion Wildcats. He averaged 17.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game over his junior 2017–18 season (22 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists per 40 minutes). Bridges, despite a skinny frame, is a striking physical figure because of his 7’2 wingspan and similarly long legs. Everything that he does effectively on both ends of the court starts with the advantage he gleans from his length.
Mikal’s best offensive talent is his shooting ability; his 51.4% field goal percentage, 43.5% three-point percentage and 85.1% free throw percentage border on the 50–40–90 holy grail and, along with his 62.3% effective field goal percentage, illustrate his efficiency. Despite somewhat worrisome mechanics (we’ll come back to this), Mikal is a knock-down sniper off the catch, with the ability to shoot over contesting defenders because of his high release and good lift.
Mikal also shows the body control and spatial awareness necessary to cut or slide into his shot on the move rather than simply spot up. This, combined with his length, could make him a threat running around screens if he can perfect his footwork. And while his shooting mechanics and ball-handling ability put a cap on his ability to shoot off the dribble, he has flashed the ability to pull up off simple one- or two-dribble moves. If he improves his ball-handling, the third clip below with the spin move into the jumper could become the norm.
Mikal projects to be an ideal complementary role player on offense. Along with his shooting ability, he’s proficient at moving off the ball, whether to shoot or go to the rim. If he’s drafted by a team that prioritizes motion and ball movement, Mikal could earn an extra few buckets per game from his cutting and sliding within the parameters of an offense.
Mikal’s body control and length are especially apparent when he is finishing at the rim. He doesn’t have incredible touch, but he can finish over or through defenders with either hand and with power. He has good hands when catching passes while cutting hard to the rim, and he is hard to stop when he gets going downhill off the dribble.
His ability to stride it out to the rim with his long legs makes it hard for his defender to contest his shot, and this length could be put to great use at the rim if he introduces finishing moves such as Euro steps.
Mikal can fit in right away as a reliable ball-moving role player. He’s unselfish, makes the extra pass and has fairly good anticipation and accuracy. He also has some upside as a playmaker; a few times in his tape he has a mismatch in the post, attracts a double team, and kicks it out for an open three. He won’t be a floor general, but he does have the capacity to make more difficult passes on the move and off the dribble.
Mikal is already a reliable secondary offensive threat, but teams will be most interested in his defensive potential. With his length and smooth athleticism, he has the tools to become one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, with the multi-positional versatility that so many franchises covet in today’s switch-happy NBA.
This isn’t just about his physical measurables either; Mikal proved himself to be a consistently good defender at Villanova, as evidenced by his 1.9 steals and 1.5 blocks per 40 minutes. When he sits down in his stance and moves his feet, he has the lateral mobility to defend even quick guards. His height and length make him a shot-blocking threat even when he’s out of position. He shows nice instincts and timing when contesting shots, and he has quick hands when stripping ball-handlers.
Mikal is a fantastic off-ball defender. He has a great understanding of where he needs to be on the court, putting himself in the ideal position to use his length as a weapon. He shows the willingness and timing to slide in front of the rim and disrupt shots inside, as well as the ability to cover ground to close out on shooters.
Mikal’s best off-ball defensive trait is his tendency to get in passing lanes and blow up dribble handoffs. Because he knows how to position himself off the ball and time his attack, Mikal gives himself a head start in jumping passes, a frightful proposition for offenses when combined with his wingspan.
Mikal’s biggest weakness right now is his inability to create offense for himself and others. He’s not a natural shot creator or playmaker; rather, he needs to get his shot within the flow of an offense. His problems in this area stem from his upright, rigid handle. He’s not shifty and struggles to change direction or pull up for jumpers.
In the second clip above, Mikal is unable to get by his man when attacking a closeout. Few players in the NBA can create offense out of nothing, so his inability to do so is not a red flag. But his shooting ability will open up opportunities to attack rotating defenders, and he needs to be able to get to the rim in these situations.
If he’s going to be anything more than a role player, Mikal needs to improve as a pick-and-roll ball handler. He rarely goes left over the screen, is limited to simple downhill drives going right and the ball slows him down.
Another concern is Mikal’s shot form. For the most part, it’s good; he squares up to the basket, gets good lift and has a high release. But at the very top, he has a hitch just before his release.
This can affect his consistency, and it allows an extra beat for his defender to recover and contest the attempt. If he is to become a threat running off screens, Mikal will need a quicker, smoother release.
Bridges sometimes breaks form in his lower body when faced with a hard contest; as can be seen in the below clip against Xavier, his right leg flies forward and to the left, pushing his left leg backward and creating an unstable base for his shot.
Mikal’s shot form issues are expounded by his inability to create offense. In the second clip above, Mikal’s inability to shoot fluidly off the dribble leads to a flailing attempt under pressure. This is another issue with his form; his limbs occasionally splay out in every direction when shooting against a contest. He will need to address this not only to increase his star potential, but to be a consistent role player.
Lastly, Mikal has to improve on ball to become the lockdown defender teams believe him to be. As shown above, Mikal has the ability to guard any player on the perimeter, but he’s not yet consistent. He gets blown by a little too often and sometimes doesn’t move his feet well enough to stay in front of advanced ball-handlers.
Most of his struggles come from stiff movement; his long legs actually become a hindrance, as it’s harder for him to sit down and slide his feet quickly and efficiently. Because of his skinny frame, it’s hard to imagine him putting on the muscle he needs to compete with bigs down low. That puts a cap on his theoretical versatility.
Mikal can get his hands caught in the cookie jar when defending shots at the basket. He doesn’t use his length properly; he reaches towards the defender, picking up cheap fouls, instead of putting his arms straight up in the air. It’s not hard to imagine stars who are adept at drawing fouls — A.K.A James Harden — getting Mikal in foul trouble.
Despite never showing a star mentality in college, there are talent evaluators out there who believe Mikal has a ton of upside and potential based solely on his measureables. His ceiling looks something like this:
Mikal is attractive for his two-way abilities, and it’s never more apparent than on this play. He utilizes his length and athleticism to physically dominate on both ends of the floor, reminiscent of Kawhi Leonard. Even if he never becomes a star, Mikal can affect the game in a number of positive ways because of his physical advantages and understanding of the game.
Miles
Michigan State’s Miles Bridges is a 6’6, 220-pound forward who averaged 17.1 points, 7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game (21.8 points, 8.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists per 40). Just like Mikal, Miles’ game derives largely from his physical attributes, in this case, his athleticism. With his wide, muscular frame, Miles is one of the best athletes in the class. His explosive leaping makes him an alley-oop and tip-dunk threat at all times, and his downhill speed makes him a runaway train barreling towards the basket.
This athleticism opens up a lot of opportunities for Miles on the court. He’s an effective cutter with good timing who sells his fakes to get his defender out of position. His speed, strength and jumping ability make him a fantastic straight-line slasher to the rim, and he occasionally shows the footwork necessary to get open for perimeter jumpers.
You can already see that Miles can throw down, but he’s a great overall finisher at the rim. He always goes up strong and can finish with either hand through or around the defense with good touch.
Miles isn’t limited to finishing off the catch, either. He’s quite capable of breaking down the defense off the dribble and getting to the rim. He needs to work on his handle and vision, but has flashed some wiggle and misdirection with the ball.
Miles is an effective shooter as well, hitting 37.5% from deep on 5.5 attempts per game in his two years in college. It’s reasonable to anticipate shooting success in the pros as well; he shot 85.3% from the free throw line during his sophomore season, has a quick, smooth form with good mechanics and has shown accuracy shooting on the move and from NBA-range. In addition, his percentages were hurt by a tendency to settle for contested pull-up threes, which will be ironed out of his game if he receives proper coaching.
Because of his athleticism, shooting and finishing ability, Miles has shot-creation potential. He projects as more of a role player due to his lack of handle, but the NBA is kind to those who can play in space. Although he didn’t get the opportunity to create much with the floor spread, Miles’ athleticism could allow him to have much more success with the ball in his hands in the NBA.
Finally, Miles has the defensive versatility to fulfill the second aspect of the 3&D role. He can sit down and move his feet with most ball handlers, and despite average length, he uses his speed to cover ground quickly. His leaping ability makes him a block threat both at the rim and on the perimeter, and he times his contests well to disrupt the offensive player.
He’s also a fantastic defensive rebounder. Despite starting alongside two big men and rarely playing the four at Michigan State, Miles averaged 5.7 defensive boards last season with an 18.2% defensive rebounding percentage. His numbers were better the year before (6.8 DReb and a 23.1% defensive rebound percentage as a freshman), when he played more power forward and didn’t have a top-five pick big man for a teammate in Jaren Jackson Jr.
Miles’ weaknesses mostly show themselves with the ball in his hands. He struggles with decision making, dribbling himself into tough positions and throwing risky passes. As previously stated, his shot selection leaves a lot to be desired; too often he bails out the defense by taking jumpers instead of putting pressure on the rim.
Miles needs to work on staying under control with the ball. He’s very wild on the drive at times; this puts him at risk of picking up offensive fouls and missing shots around the basket and it compounds his existing issues with passing accuracy and vision. His lack of handle puts a cap on his effectiveness in isolation situations, limiting him to tough pull-up jumpers.
These issues make Miles predictable when trying to create offense. It’s far too easy to force him into contested jumpers, and his inability to get by his defender can lead to him dribbling around aimlessly and jacking up a shot at the buzzer in late-clock situations.
Miles’ length is problematic in terms of his positional fit at the next level. There’s never been a better time to be a tweener, but Miles’ 6’9.5” wingspan, while not excessively short, limits his ability as a rim protector and post defender. Miles is a great athlete with enough strength to battle down low, but it will be hard for him to defend at the basket at 6’6 without long arms.
Finally, Miles isn’t always mentally engaged. He suffers from Andrew Wiggins Syndrome, going long periods of games making no impact on either end. He spends many possessions in a row drifting on the perimeter on offense, passing up attacking chances with the ball in his hands.
He frequently loses focus on defense, failing to communicate, relaxing off the shooter he’s guarding, or losing sight of his man entirely. He can be just as predictable on defense as on offense, constantly jumping at pump fakes and putting himself out of position.
Miles’ nuclear athleticism gives him room for error, as can be seen in the clip below.
Despite getting caught on the shot fake, Miles recovers to block the jumper, sprints in transition and gives his team a momentum boost with the massive alley-oop. This is what we will ideally see from Miles at the next level: utilizing that athleticism on both ends not only to be successful on the court, but to give his team and home crowd an infusion of energy.
The Choice
Comparing Miles and Mikal makes for an interesting case study because there are so many similarities between them. Each is a versatile wing prospect at a time when that type of player is sorely needed in the NBA. Each has a physical advantage that jump starts most of the good things he does on the court. Each has a reputation as a great teammate who cares about winning, and each has nuance in his game to go along with his physical advantage. And they’re the only possible top ten prospects from college who aren’t freshmen, a supposed negative that makes each a steal waiting to happen.
But the fascinating part of the comparison comes in their differences, which are most apparent when watching tape. And in the case of the two Bridges, their respective physical advantages put Miles a level above. The NBA, with its emphasis on spacing and athleticism, is much more kind than the college game to players who are at their best in space. Those who outperform their draft position often blossom when moving on from the cramped college style and onto a bigger court with better shooters to create space to work.
Take Donovan Mitchell, for example. The Louisville product was a rookie of the year candidate after being selected by the Jazz with the 13th overall pick. He went from averaging 15.6 points per game in his final season with the Cardinals to averaging 20.5 against much better competition. Why? His best skill — his athleticism — has much more impact in the NBA than in the NCAA. Speed and vertical leap can only do so much when contending with multiple defenders in a smaller area. But with room to operate, Mitchell used his explosiveness to create easy shots for himself.
I see similar potential for Miles. He might not be able to carry an offense like Mitchell can, but he has abilities he was never able to showcase as a Spartan. He’s at his best going downhill to the rim, yet Tom Izzo frequently had at least one lane-clogging center in the game. Miles’ best matchup was at the four, using his speed to attack slower defenders off the dribble, yet most of his sophomore minutes came at small forward.
Get Miles on a NBA team that will play him as a small-ball four — preferably with shooting and a versatile big man to help him defensively (the Knicks?) — and he could become a foundational piece as a late-lottery steal. As a younger player who was rarely used optimally in college, Miles has a lot more room for growth than Mikal, who turns 22 in August and spent the last three years in the perfect college system without the pressure of performing as his team’s leading offensive force.
I believe Mikal will become a good NBA player too; he’s too good at all the skills that make an effective 3&D guy to become a liability. But Miles has a similarly high floor due to his role player attributes and has flashed a higher ceiling with his athleticism and go-to scoring potential.
No matter who ends up being the better player, both of the Bridges have a good chance of sticking as above average players at the next level due to the need for wing players with their skill sets. Both are bridges to somewhere rather than bridges to nowhere (pun intended). In a draft with so many boom-or-bust prospects, we could look back at these two as among the best players in the class, simply for the importance of their strengths in the modern NBA.
