Five PIPING HOT Predictions for the NFL Season
Football season is finally here. That means it’s prime season for predictions that’ll look stupid in a month’s time. I don’t think all of these will come true, but if I were an NFL talk show radio host in dire need of takes to fire up my audience, these are five I’d feel okay about releasing into the takeosphere.
1. The Steelers will be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Okay, maybe this one isn’t so contrarian. Let me ease into this “hot take” thing, alright? Not exactly my M.O.
The AFC should feature far more conference-wide parity than the NFC this year, and is up for the taking — even for a Steelers squad with a porous pass defense, usually a no-no for contenders in today’s pass-heavy game. While one of the Packers, Cardinals, Panthers and Seahawks will almost surely reel off a soul-crushing 14–2 campaign, 12 wins could be enough to clinch the AFC’s top seed for the second straight year — especially with New England missing Tom Brady to start the season (we’ll get to the Patriots in a bit).
Frankly, I trust Pittsburgh’s defensive coaches to continue improving that unit more than I trust Cincinnati’s staff to carry over the success from last year. It’s not too difficult to imagine Pittsburgh sweeping the stagnant AFC North. The Bengals lost key contributors Reggie Nelson, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Andre Smith during the offseason. Andy Dalton was a nice surprise last year, but the Red Rocket could sputter this year given the offense’s attrition. The “Is Joe Flacco elite?” meme has just about run its course, and Dalton is the obvious candidate to usurp his rival’s place on PFTCommenter’s famed Flaccometer.
Steel City also gets to play the NFC East, surely the most favorable inter-conference slate they could have drawn. As long as Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown stay healthy, Big Ben and Co. should be able to withstand the season-long suspension of Martavis Bryant to top the AFC with 12 wins.
2. The Jets will win the AFC East.
The Patriots have been crowned AFC East champions for 12 of the last 13 years. The one exception was in 2008, when Tom Brady tore his ACL in the season opener. Brady is only expected to miss four games this year, due to the Deflategate suspension, but I think that’ll be enough for the Jets to sneak past the Pats on a tiebreaker in the AFC East.
Many have written off New York because of its brutal early-season schedule. But the Jets’ bruising defensive line should make a few grown men cry and spark an upset or two over favorites with weak offensive fronts — ahem, Cincinnati and Seattle — and things will ease up considerably after a Week 6 matchup against Arizona.
If the Jets can knock off the Patriots at home in Week 12 coming off a bye — just like they did in Week 16 last year — there’s potential for an eight-game winning streak following their difficult slate through the first six weeks.
I think both the Jets and Patriots go 11–5, with Todd Bowles’ crew picking up New York’s first division title since 2002 via the common games tiebreaker.
3. The Lions will be the only new NFC playoff team.
The Vikings appear to be the likeliest NFC playoff team from last season to fall out of the postseason picture following Teddy Bridgewater’s knee injury. You only have to peep this picture of Vikings GM Rick Spielman — taken at the press conference announcing Bridgewater’s injury — to fully understand the grim situation in Minnesota. That’s the face of a man who’s realizing he must mortgage his franchise’s future to trade for Sam Bradford.
Another NFC North team will capitalize on Minnesota’s misfortune: Jim Bob Cooter’s Motor City crew (yes, I’m attributing possession of the Lions to Cooter over human mannequin Dave Caldwell).
After Cooter took over as Detroit’s offensive coordinator during the middle of last season, Matthew Stafford looked like a whole new quarterback, stringing together the best eight-game stretch by passer rating (110.1) in franchise history. And that was despite Calvin Johnson’s per-game output decreasing by more than 10 yards after Cooter’s predecessor was fired.
The Lions won’t miss Megatron as much as you’d expect, especially since new starting wideout Marvin Jones should be a stellar fit alongside Golden Tate in Cooter’s quick-hit passing scheme. Ameer Abdullah, who averaged 4.6 yards per carry after Cooter started calling the shots, will provide the running threat needed to balance out the offense.
Detroit’s young offensive line should take a step forward in 2016, and the defense will welcome back DeAndre Levy from a hip injury that almost completely curtailed his 2015 campaign.
All of the above, plus an exceedingly weak schedule that features the AFC South and NFC East, will help Detroit return to the playoffs after a one-year hiccup. I wouldn’t bet they’ll win a game once they get there, but hey, it’s progress.
4. The Chiefs will earn a first-round playoff bye.
Last year, Kansas City won its final 10 regular season games to force itself into the playoffs. Another late-season surge — highlighted by a sweep over the defending Super Bowl champs — will snap Denver’s five-year reign atop the AFC West.
The Broncos represent the only team with a winning record in 2015 on Kansas City’s schedule after Week 10, and the Chiefs showed last season they can win in the Mile High City. With Justin Houston possibly returning for the stretch run, the Chiefs should be favored to win their last seven games and clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
5. Super Bowl LI will be a rematch of a season opener.
Nope, I’m not talking about Thursday’s reprisal of Super Bowl 50 between Denver and Carolina. And I’m definitely not referring to the Tortured Fan Base Bowl featuring Cleveland and Philadelphia, which could end up acting as the tiebreaker for the first overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Instead, I’m referring to a Week 1 matchup that’s lost a bit of its luster due to a everyone’s favorite NFL scandal. Fortunately, we’ll be able to watch Tom Brady lead the New England Patriots into battle against the Arizona Cardinals next February in Houston.
Yes, I’m aware that I predicted the Pats to lose their stranglehold on the AFC East. But there simply aren’t any scary juggernauts in the AFC whom we can depend on to beat the Brady-Belichick partnership come January.
However, the Cardinals have the offensive firepower and defensive chops to make that dynamic duo sweat. You should be rooting for this outcome: a Cardinals-Patriots Super Bowl would present us with too many storylines to keep track of.
Can New England cement itself as the best dynasty in NFL history with a fifth championship? How will that stunning Chandler Jones-Jonathan Cooper offseason trade affect things? Which veteran will conjure up the most meaningful playoff magic — Brady or Larry Fitzgerald? Can Tyrann Mathieu shut down Julian Edelman in a battle of undersized skill players? Can the Kangol Hat conquer The Hoodie?
We’ll get the answer to a few of those questions on Sunday, when the Cardinals host the Patriots in the season’s first edition of Sunday Night Football. But it’d be a lot more satisfying if we could confirm those results with Tom Brady under center for New England in February.
