NFL Championship Sunday Picks
Championship Sunday has arrived, and with it come two of the best match-ups of this NFL season. For much of the early portion of the year, there were many complaints that the games were boring, with a low level of performance from all but a few teams. Even some of the last two weeks’ playoff games have been pointless affairs where a good team completely outclassed a mediocre one. Even though all four of these teams have huge flaws, however, they should make for very entertaining games. Let’s get into it.
Note: This is not a gambling article. I’m simply picking the games, with the lines given for reference as to who is favored. Also, the home team is in ALL-CAPS.
Green Bay (+5.5) over ATLANTA
There’s a lot to say for Atlanta’s case in this game: Matt Ryan is playing about as well as the deity Aaron Rodgers right now… MVP-caliber quarterback who has to hear all week about the other quarterback who’s coming into HIS house… better weapons, including the folk hero Julio Jones… The Falcons have much more balance in the two-headed running back attack of Devont’a Freeman and Tevin Coleman… A better defense with the best defensive player in this game in Vic Beasley… A better and more even regular season performance… Many Packers players injured or ailing, including Rodgers’ most trusted receiver, Jordy Nelson… The emotion of playing the last game in the Georgia Dome… The rare case of a “Nobody Believes in Us” team at home…
So obviously there are plenty of reasons to pick the Falcons. I’m confident that they will make this a great game and that it will go down to the wire. I just can’t pick against Aaron Rodgers. I can’t. He’s been too good. This performance he’s put on the last eight weeks — putting up huge stats and coming through in every single big moment and lugging a team with less talent than the one they’re facing to wins — reminds me of the 2010 championship season. He seems untouchable. He puts every pass on the money, including the deep ones, doesn’t make mistakes, throws his receivers open, and makes plays with his legs to throw and run the ball. He’s simply the most physically talented quarterback the earth has ever seen, as well as being right there with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in terms of thinking the game, and he’s playing some of the best football of his career. He’s destroying the narrative that he doesn’t perform well in the postseason, part of an artificially-created chip on his shoulder. He’s the most frightening football player, maybe ever, and certainly among the remaining teams. Let me tell you, no Patriots or Steelers fan wants the Packers to win on Sunday. None.
Rodgers is so good that he not only makes up for his team’s deficiencies, he elevates everyone around him, including those on the other side of the ball. Earlier in the year, when Rodgers wasn’t playing his best, it was easier to see the Packers’ flaws, mainly including their abhorrent secondary and non-threatening running game. But when Rodgers is on fire, like he has been, the players involved in those units are playing with house money. The secondary can be more aggressive because they know that if they get burned, they have the best quarterback in the game heading out on the field to get the points back. And when the defense has to key in on Rodgers, the running game opens up for Ty Montgomery. This is key because Montgomery is really a big play back. He’s not going to grind you up inside and break tackles, which is what he would have to deal with if his quarterback wasn’t a demigod. Instead, he can be contented to attack a defense whose focus is elsewhere and gain his yardage on a few big plays.
The Packers have a good run defense, at least when they’re not playing the Cowboys. Against any other offensive line, the Packers aren’t pushed around so easily, and I don’t think the Falcons have that type of dominating front. If the Packers can at least limit Freeman and Coleman, they will force Matt Ryan to match Rodgers almost throw-for-throw. Let me be clear: Ryan has been incredible this season, and I’m very frightened at the possibility of the Patriots playing him in the Super Bowl (if the Pats win Sunday, which we’ll get to). But he does have a reputation of not playing his best in the postseason. I’m not saying it’s deserved, but it could be something weighing on his mind. If it ends up coming down to Ryan vs. Rodgers, I’m taking Rodgers.
Green Bay 38, Atlanta 35
NEW ENGLAND (-6) over Pittsburgh
Oh boy. I’m very uneasy about this one. The Patriots are coming off an 18-point win that was completely unimpressive in most ways. Brady was taking a ton of pressure from Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus, and it threw him off his game. He was noticeably uncomfortable, completing just 47% of his throws, and he was constantly complaining to the refs about the hits he was taking. Pittsburgh has improved tremendously at generating pressure as the season has progressed, and they’re perfectly capable of getting to Brady using complicated blitzes and stunts up front. If Brady is anything less than his normal, brilliant self, the Patriots could have a hard time winning this game.
The reason for that is because the Steelers boast the scariest set of position players in the league. It’s very possible that they have both the best running back and wide receiver in the league, in Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, respectively. Those two are capable of dominating a game based on sheer talent alone, if you aren’t at your best. They also have a number of talented secondary receivers, including Eli Rogers. Of course, they have Ben Roethlisberger, still among the best quarterbacks in the game. Big Ben has not been at his best recently, though; he seems to throw three passes every game that could be picked off, leading to a rise in interception numbers recently. The Patriots will have to take advantage of those opportunities if they want to win.
One of the reasons I hesitantly pick the Patriots is because Belichick has a record of creating game plans that limit opposing star running backs, as well as a record of taking away a team’s best offensive weapon. I seriously doubt the Patriots can stop Bell, but if they can limit his impact, Brady and the offense will have a chance to win the game. The difference here, however, is that the Steelers have another unstoppable weapon at receiver that has to be accounted for. Defending this Steelers team will be the ultimate test of Belichick’s preparatory prowess.
A few other aspects in the Patriots’ favor: the greatest quarterback ever against a defensive backfield that has a lot of rookies and not a lot of production… Dion Lewis emerging as a game-breaker in Rob Gronkowski’s absence… a better defense… the ideal situation of coming off a playoff win but not performing up to your standards (if you think Belichick didn’t run the Patriots through the gauntlet in practice this week you’re crazy)… Steelers players suffering from the flu… the game is in Foxborough, always a tough place to play… a better offensive balance for the Patriots this year as LaGarrette Blount and Lewis have crafted a strong running game…
So, when you add up all these factors, I feel like I have to go with the Pats, although I’m very uncertain. To me, this game is a coin flip. The outcome could change depending on any number of things, from the performance of Brady/Roethlisberger to fumbles in the cold weather, and they aren’t easy things to predict. All we can do is sit back, and enjoy what should be two awesome games.
New England 33, Pittsburgh 31
Last Week: 3–1
Season: 146–84–1
