NFL Divisional Round Picks
It’s time for the divisional round, where we have a few exciting games between good, well-matched teams… and then there’s the lopsided Patriots-Texans match-up. Still, each team earned its way here, whether by winning a game last week or playing well enough in the regular season to earn a bye, and each team has its strengths and weaknesses. The match-ups of these strengths and weaknesses will determine the outcomes, and there are some interesting ones this weekend, starting with…
ATLANTA (-4) over Seattle
Everyone wants to pick the Seahawks based on toughness and a history of playoff success, but those things don’t make up for legitimate weaknesses. Seattle’s deficiencies start on the offensive side of the ball, with an offensive line that doesn’t give Russell Wilson any time to work with. The offense isn’t very efficient, and now without Tyler Lockett, they’ve lost their big play ability. Thomas Rawls had a big day running the ball against the Lions last week, but that was just one example of Seattle’s good performance against a bad team generating undeserved hype. The fact of the matter is that Seattle isn’t nearly as fearsome on either side of the ball as they have been in the past, due to injuries and general fatigue from year after year of playoff runs. They’ve gone a bit stale.
Atlanta, meanwhile, is an exciting, dynamic team. They had the league’s best offense as Matt Ryan’s passing game and Devont’a Freeman’s run game freed each other up to attack defenses. Julio Jones is a beast who is bigger, stronger, and faster than everyone who tries to defend him. Atlanta has playmakers across the board, from back-up RB Tevin Coleman to the secondary receivers, and Ryan has been playing at an MVP-level. The defense has its issues to be sure, but they do have a star in Vic Beasley. The pass-rusher has blossomed in his second year out of Clemson, and has been an absolute terror to opposing quarterbacks, racking up a league-leading 15.5 sacks. I look for him to be the difference in this one, making enough plays, probably late in the game, to clinch Atlanta a win. Seattle won’t give up without a fight, but we saw during these two teams’ Week 6 match-up in Seattle that Atlanta isn’t scared of the Seahawks. Atlanta would have won that game if not for a missed pass interference call, and now at home, against a weakened Seahawks team, I can’t go against them.
Atlanta 28, Seattle 24
NEW ENGLAND (-16) over Houston
That line is crazy. Houston is one of the biggest playoff underdogs in years, and there’s good reason why. After his second late-season benching in as many years, Brock Osweiler was forced back on the field when his replacement, Tom Savage, suffered a concussion. Osweiler has been horrible this season, and his ineptitude has kept the Texans from producing anything substantial offensively. They made up for it with a good defense and the good luck of playing in the AFC South. Their luck continued when they faced a Raiders team without Derek Carr in the Wild Card game, and the defense flexed their collective muscles against third-string rookie Connor Cook. Jadeveon Clowney has emerged as a young star, a threat in the pass and run games, and the Texans have one of the league’s best cornerback units. Still, it’s hard not to discredit what they did in crushing a dejected team with an overmatched quarterback.
Meanwhile, they’re going up against the team that has given them the most trouble the last few years. Trips to Foxborough have rarely ended well for the Texans, and that shouldn’t change this year. Tom Brady is playing as well as ever, but New England’s offense has more balance than it has in years, behind the running back duo of LaGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. The Patriots have the league’s best scoring defense, but much of that is likely due to a lack of quality quarterbacks on the schedule. Still, it’s hard to see New England winning by less than a 10-point margin, much less losing at all.
New England 28, Houston 14
DALLAS (-4) over Green Bay
Green Bay is coming into this game hot, having won their last seven games, including rolling over the Giants 38–13. That was an impressive win against a good team with a great defense in cold weather. It’s fair to assume that the offense will put up even more points against a worse defense in a dome. I certainly wouldn’t put it past Aaron Rodgers, who is playing the best football of any quarterback in the league right now, and officially outed himself as a magician with a third big-game Hail Mary in the last year a week ago. Green Bay’s surge has coincided with improved defensive play, but that unit is still slightly above average at best.
Dallas, meanwhile, is being underestimated by everyone in a home playoff game. This team only lost to two other squads all year; the Giants, now out of the playoffs, and the Eagles, who won in Week 17 with Mark Sanchez playing most of the game as Dallas’ quarterback. The Cowboys already took down the Packers 30–16 in Week 6, and have a formula for beating Rodgers; use their dominant running game to keep Rodgers off of the field. Behind that offensive line, Ezekiel Elliott has been a beast, and he and Dak Prescott really took it to the Packers in that Week 6 match-up. Dallas’ defense is decidedly average, but Rodgers will be missing his favorite target in Jordy Nelson, out with broken ribs. I think that will be the key in what should be a fantastic game. Without Nelson in there, the Cowboys defense should be able to hold up well enough to give their offense a chance to control the pace.
Dallas 33, Green Bay 31
Pittsburgh (+1) over KANSAS CITY
These two teams played back in Week 4, with Pittsburgh notching a 41–13 win at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh is playing more like that team recently than the version of itself that lost four straight games. Le’Veon Bell has been a force on the ground, Antonio Brown is still electric, and despite his inconsistencies, Ben Roethlisberger is still a terrifying quarterback to face in big games. He will need to cut down on the dangerous throws if Pittsburgh is to be a legitimate title contender. The defense, which spent most of the season being mediocre, was tough against Miami a week ago, but now they’re facing a much better team.
Kansas City has made a living off of turnovers, leading the league in takeaways. This has covered up an otherwise middling defense, but it’s a legitimate strength in a home playoff game with the crowd roaring. Justin Houston, when healthy, is a great pass-rusher, and the defensive backfield is anchored by safety Eric Berry and cornerback Marcus Peters. Kansas City’s offense is still not great, but no unit led by Alex Smith is going to be all that incredible. The difference could be Tyreek Hill, an incredible athlete capable of making huge plays on offense and in special teams. Ultimately, I think Pittsburgh’s playmakers will be too much, with Brown catching a game-winning touchdown, setting up another postseason clash with the Patriots.
Pittsburgh 27, Kansas City 24
Last Week: 3–1
Season: 143–83–1
