NFL Week 13 Picks
Denver (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Denver just suffered a heart-breaking loss to the rival Chiefs last Sunday night, and while that game was exceedingly physical, I think they’ll use it as motivation for this week. They won’t play around with the Jaguars. I don’t even think it will end up mattering that Trevor Siemian is out. Expect Von Miller to be on Blake Bortles early and often.
Denver 17, Jacksonville 10
ATLANTA (-5.5) over Kansas City
I see the same issue for Kansas City after that brutal game against Denver, only the Chiefs won. That means they won’t have the same motivation that the Broncos have, so I fear a flat performance from KC on the road. It’s very possible that we see Julio Jones have a field day against a tired defense.
Atlanta 27, Kansas City 20
GREEN BAY (-6) over Houston
It remains to be seen whether the Packers can actually make a run at the playoffs. Sometimes they look good, sometimes they look awful. I think we’ve established that Aaron Rodgers is not the problem, however, and he should be enough to get Green Bay past a Houston team crippled by the play of Brock Osweiler.
Green Bay 24, Houston 20
Philadelphia (+1.5) over Cincinnati
Philadelphia’s defense didn’t look good against the previously inept Packers on Monday night, but I still think they’re good enough to suffocate a Bengals offense without A.J. Green or Giovani Bernard. On the other side of the ball, I think the Eagles can make enough plays in the running game against Cincy’s 28th-ranked rush defense.
Philadelphia 21, Cincinnati 17
NEW ORLEANS (-6) over Detroit
This should be a barn-burner. Two offenses that can be exceptional and two defenses that can look awful. Games such as these often come down to who can get one more defensive play than the other team. Since that’s the case, I like the Saints, who are at home and have the quarterback who’s less prone to making mistakes
New Orleans 33, Detroit 31
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Los Angeles
Rob Gronkowski is out for the season, and that’s a huge blow to the Pats. But they’re used to playing without him by now; he’s missed so many games in his career that I’m certain Belichick always has a strategy for dealing with his absence. These games, against mediocre-bad teams, are the ones the Patriots win, as evidenced by the result giants the Jets last week.
New England 24, Los Angeles 21
BALTIMORE (-3.5) over Miami
Baltimore has the league’s top rushing defense. It wasn’t enough to unseat the Cowboys a few weeks ago, but it was close. That’s why I think they’re the team best equipped to stop the Jay Ajayi train from leading the Dolphins to a seventh straight win. They can also get after Ryan Tannehill and make him look more like the guy he was before Ajayi took the pressure off him.
Baltimore 20, Miami 17
San Francisco (-2) over Chicago
San Fran has actually shown signs of life, which is more than I can say for the Bears. The 49ers gave the Patriots a scare two weeks ago, playing them to a 13–10 defect at the half, and then lost to the Dolphins by one score last week. I’m pretty sure even fans of these teams have little interest in watching this one.
San Francisco 24, Chicago 21
OAKLAND (-3) over Buffalo
Derek Carr’s return from what appeared to be a ghastly finger injury last week may end up being the defining image of his possible MVP-campaign. The kid knows how to win and win in fashion, which is classic Raiders quarterback. He says the finger shouldn’t be an issue this week, but even if it was, I still might pick Oakland.
Oakland 28, Buffalo 24
Washington (+2.5) over ARIZONA
Washington has a really effective offense, in which Kirk Cousins spreads the ball around to each of his dangerous receivers. The defense has also been solid, led by Josh Norman. They gave a Cowboys a run for their money on Thanksgiving, and have now had a long week to prepare for a struggling Arizona team.
Washington 28, Arizona 23
PITTSBURGH (-6) over NY Giants
This one should be close, but I like Pittsburgh. Despite the Giants’ top-flight defense, I still don’t see them being able to handle Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. The Steelers are a game back of Miami and Denver for the final wild card spot, so they need a win. I think they’ll be the hungrier team.
Pittsburgh 30, New York 27
Tampa Bay (+3.5) over SAN DIEGO
Same goes for Tampa Bay. They’re in the playoff hunt right now after winning three straight, and have more to play for than the Chargers, who are firmly on the outside looking in at the postseason. If Tampa Bay can keep Joey Bosa off of Jameis Winston, and if Winston can avoid mistakes, Tampa should get the win here.
Tampa Bay 24, San Diego 23
SEATTLE (-7.5) over Carolina
I’m fairly certain that the Seahawks’ performance against Tampa Bay last week was an aberration, but it was bad enough to make me wonder about them. When Seattle’s offense doesn’t have it, they are really bad. However, the defense alone should win them this one in a bit of a rivalry game with Cam Newton and Carolina. I think Seattle’s defense will play incredibly inspired and lead them to victory.
Seattle 23, Carolina 17
MONDAY NIGHT
Indianapolis (-1.5) over NY JETS
There’s just not much to say about this one. Yet another prime time stinker for the NFL. The Colts have the best player so I’ll go with them, but I’m not exactly excited about it.
Last Week: 10–3
Season: 100–60–1
