NFL Week 14 Picks
Denver (+1.5) over TENNESSEE
In what world should Tennessee be favored over Denver? I realize that Tennessee has put up big points in recent weeks, but Denver is still one of the league’s premier defenses. And with Trevor Siemian back at quarterback, I see no reason why Tennessee’s defense would be able to win the game themselves.
Denver 23, Tennessee 17
Washington (-2.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Washington is just a half-game back of Tampa Bay for the final wild card spot in the NFC. They have a sterling offense when they’re running on all cylinders, and a defense that can hold it down if needed. Really, this pick is about my lack of trust in the Eagles. After a great start, Philly is now 5–7 and out of the playoff hunt. They just haven’t been playing well recently, so I have to go with Washington.
Washington 27, Philadelphia 24
Minnesota (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Minnesota still has a shot at the playoffs. Their last four games come against teams with a combined 17–31 record this year. It starts this week on the road in Jacksonville, a game they need to have. I’m looking for that Vikings defense to step up, hound Blake Bortles all day, force a lot of turnovers, and lead Minnesota to a win.
Minnesota 20, Jacksonville 14
San Diego (+1) over CAROLINA
Neither of these teams have much to play for; they’re both out of the playoff race. San Diego has, on the whole, looked better than Carolina this season. Philip Rivers should be able to shred this weak Carolina secondary. Everything will open up for San Diego’s offense because Luke Kuechly is out at middle linebacker, meaning easier running lanes for Melvin Gordon and less stress for Rivers in always identifying what Kuechly is doing.
San Diego 28, Carolina 23
Cincinnati (-5.5) over CLEVELAND
What is there to say? Cincinnati is a shell of what they’ve been in previous years, but they’re not bad enough to lose to the Browns. Look for Tyler Eifert to have a big game at tight end with WR A.J. Green out as the offense’s big play guy.
Cincinnati 23, Cleveland 17
Pittsburgh (-3) over BUFFALO
Pittsburgh is another team making a playoff push, only trailing Baltimore for the AFC North lead by tiebreaker. Buffalo is technically still in it, but it will be harder for them being two full games back of Denver for the final AFC wild card spot. If Pittsburgh can play like they did last week in destroying the Giants, this game should be a routine win.
Pittsburgh 27, Buffalo 23
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) over Houston
Indianapolis is fresh off destroying the Jets 41–10 on Monday night, which is a good sign, even if it was the Jets. Meanwhile, it seems that Brock Osweiler has made it his mission to take the soul of Deandre Hopkins and the rest of the Texans’ offense, throw it into the ground, and stomp on it repeatedly. Even though the Texans seem to have the Colts’ number, Indy is playing better right now.
Indianapolis 24, Houston 20
MIAMI (+2) over Arizona
Sure, Arizona had an impressive win over Washington last week. That doesn’t change the fact that they’re 5–6–1, and that there are four teams ahead of them for the final wild card slot in the NFC. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are right there, a game back of Denver. If there was ever a time for Jay Ajayi to carry them to victory, it’s this week.
Miami 24, Arizona 23
DETROIT (-7.5) over Chicago
Detroit is playing such good football right now that some are considering Matthew Stafford as a potential MVP candidate. That’s ridiculous, but it shows how the Lions have been clicking lately. They’ve won seven of their last eight behind a surprisingly efficient offense and a defense that hasn’t given up more than 19 points since Week 7. They shouldn’t have any problem with the lowly Bears.
Detroit 28, Chicago 17
SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over NY Jets
Lord save anyone who decides to watch this game. It’s sure to be ugly between teams that lost by a combined 51 points last week. The sad part is, the teams who obliterated these two aren’t even that good! I guess I’ll go with San Francisco because they’re at home, but I’m not happy about it.
San Francisco 20, New York 17
Seattle (-3) over GREEN BAY
Two match-ups swing this game in Seattle’s favor: first is the defense’s ability to stop the short pass by keeping the ball in front of them and making tackles. The short throws are what Aaron Rodgers has thrived on, but he’s going to need to throw it deep to properly take advantage of Earl Thomas’ absence. Second, Green Bay is second-worst in the league at covering tight ends, while Seattle’s Jimmy Graham has returned to being the among the best at that position this year.
Seattle 24, Green Bay 21
Atlanta (-6) over LOS ANGELES
Atlanta is flat-out better than Los Angeles. The Rams are good at making games ugly, but not actually winning them. Even if they can keep it close and low-scoring, I think Atlanta’s explosive offense will be able to make the big plays necessary to win in the end. But if Atlanta does lose, we can finally write them off as legitimate contenders.
Atlanta 24, Los Angeles 17
Dallas (-4) over NY GIANTS
Dallas is the NFL’s dominant team right now. It’s just hard to see them losing, even to the one team they’ve fallen to this year. The Cowboys team from that Week 1 loss to the Giants is completely different from the one we’ve seen the rest of the season. They’re more confident and explosive now. Meanwhile, the Giants didn’t give anyone a reason to trust them in a 14-point effort against the Steelers a week ago.
Dallas 27, New York 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Baltimore (+6.5) over NEW ENGLAND
With Rob Gronkowski out for the season, New England needs LaGarrette Blount to be a force if they’re going to have a top-five offense. Unfortunately, Baltimore has the league’s best run defense. And we all know that the Ravens aren’t scared of going into Foxborough. With the lack of big offensive production and defensive stability the Patriots have shown, I just don’t like their chances.
Baltimore 24, New England 23
Last Week: 9–5
Season: 109–65–1
