NFL Week 2 Picks

The NFL season opened with a bang last week. The Broncos pounded Cam Newton into a pulp and still only won because Graham Gano missed a field goal. The Patriots took down the Cardinals in Arizona without Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski. Washington was outed as a contender and Dallas lost another opener in heart-breaking fashion. It was just like old times.

Now Week 2 is here, with its own match-ups and storylines. Remember, the home team is in all caps.

CAROLINA (-13.5) over San Fransisco, 1:00 ET, 9/18.

Congratulations to the 49ers for dominating a crappy Rams team on the always goofy second game of the Monday night opener double-header. But the Panthers are coming, and they have to be pissed after that loss to the Broncos. It doesn’t even matter if Cam Newton is concussed; Carolina would win this game with me playing quarterback.

Carolina 35, San Fransisco 10

NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) over Miami, 1:00 ET, 9/18.

I would be worried about this game because Jimmy Garoppolo just spent the last week hearing about how great he is, how he’s the heir apparent to Tom Brady. Division opponents are rarely easy games, and the Dolphins have the front seven to take advantage of that shaky New England offensive line. However, Belichick owns divisional opponents at home, especially Miami, and I loved what I saw on both sides of the ball from the Patriots Sunday night. Maybe I would pick Miami at home, but going to Foxborough is going to be tough for Ryan Tannehill and Co.

New England 21, Miami 17

Baltimore (-6) over CLEVELAND, 1:00 ET, 9/18.

I don’t like Baltimore much. They beat the Bills 13–7, then watched that crappy team give up 37 points to the Jets on Thursday. I just think they’re putting too much responsibility on old players. But they’re definitely better than the Browns. I mean, how sad are they? I’m sorry, but Robert Griffin III should have known that Cleveland was not the place to resurrect his career. Now he’s out, which is a small problem compared to the lack of overall talent on the roster.

Baltimore 27, Cleveland 17

PITTSBURGH (-3.5) over Cincinnati, 1:00 ET, 9/18.

Pittsburgh did what they always do last week: rely on the Ben Roethlisberger/Antonio Brown connection and their supernatural ability to get production from random receivers. Meanwhile, the Bengals won a hard-fought victory in New York over the Jets, led by a huge performance from AJ Green. Green may be able to keep Cincy in this single-handedly against those weak Pittsburgh defensive backs, but the Steelers are too explosive.

Pittsburgh 30, Cincinatti 28

DETROIT (-6) over Tennessee, 1:00 ET, 9/18.

The 11-point margin against the Vikings doesn’t really do the Titans justice. They dominated the first half and Minnesota got a fluky defensive touchdown. I think this one will be very close, but I liked how Stafford played against the Colts last week, and I think the home field advantage will be enough for Detroit to eke out a win.

Detroit 23, Tennessee 21

Kansas City over HOUSTON (-2), 1:00 ET, 9/18.

The Chiefs did what good teams do when they fall behind an inferior opponent: they came back very quickly and won. Meanwhile the Texans struggled with the Bears for a few quarters, ultimately pulling away on the strength of Lamar Miller’s 106 yards. These teams are of similar quality. Both are in the second or third tier of teams. They’ll probably make the playoffs, but they’re not legitimate contenders. This comes down to the fact that I trust Alex Smith over Brock Osweiler. Plain and simple.

Kansas City 28, Houston 27

Dallas over WASHINGTON (-3), 1:00 ET, 9/18.

Washington didn’t impress on Monday, to say the least. They let Antonio Brown torch them, which means Dez Bryant could go off. Also, Washington has been susceptible to the run, a possible sign of success for Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott. Dallas’ defense was surprisingly solid against the Giants, so I’m not quaking in my boots about all the six yard passes Kirk Cousins is going to throw.

Dallas 23, Washington 21

New Orleans over NY GIANTS (-4), 1:00 ET, 9/18.

The Saints seem to have another season of offensive shootouts and a 7–9 record coming. Brees threw for 423 yards and four touchdowns against Oakland, and Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead are New Orleans’ new generation of receivers. This could be a barn-burner, which can come down to which team makes one more mistake. I’ll take Brees over Eli Manning in that department.

New Orleans 33, New York 30

ARIZONA (-7) over Tampa Bay, 4:05 ET, 9/18.

I think this might be the game of the week. I really like Tampa Bay and their offensive trio of Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, and Doug Martin. They took it to Atlanta on the road last week, and I liked pretty much everything I saw from them. However, Arizona is looking to bounce back from that sloppy disappointment against New England, and I think they’ll bring their A-game. That defense won’t let Jameis do whatever he wants like Atlanta did, and the Cardinals just have so many weapons. I can’t see them starting 0–2.

Arizona 27, Tampa Bay 24

Seattle (-6.5) over LOS ANGELES, 4:05 ET, 9/18.

A hobbled Russell Wilson? An early season game against an opponent who has a weird amount of success against Seattle? This would seem to have all the makings of one of those September losses for the Seahawks. However, what I saw from the Rams last week was so mind-numbingly futile, I can’t possibly pick them over a Super Bowl contender. I just can’t.

Seattle 24, Los Angeles 10

DENVER (-6.5) over Indianapolis, 4:25 ET, 9/18.

Indianapolis lost to Detroit at home last week. Why would they be able to win in one of the toughest opposing arenas in the NFL? Denver’s powerful pass rush is going to destroy the Colts’ offensive line and keep Andrew Luck on the ground all day. And if the opener is any indication, the Broncos may have a better offense than they did last year. C.J. Anderson was fantastic, and Trevor Siemian did his job as game manager.

Denver 23, Indianapolis 14

Jacksonville over SAN DIEGO (-3), 4:25 ET, 9/18.

Being at home may actually be a bad thing for the Chargers. That crowd is half full, and 30% of the people who show up are rooting for the other team. It’s depressing, and not just because Keenan Allen is now out for the year. Jacksonville took Green Bay down to the final possession, which is a good sign for a young team. I wouldn’t bet on it, but the Jaguars just have more playmakers than San Diego does.

Jacksonville 27, San Diego 24

OAKLAND (-4.5) over Atlanta, 4:25 ET, 9/18.

Oakland proved that the hype was legitimate with a thrilling Week 1 win against the Saints in the Superdome. I love the playmaking of Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, the defense is much improved, and I was impressed at the gutsiness of coach Jack Del Rio to go for two in the final minute that won the Raiders the game. Meanwhile, Atlanta got blindsided by the Buccaneers, and it seems at this point like Julio Jones is the only thing the Falcons have going for them.

Oakland 28, Atlanta 21

Green Bay (-2.5) over MINNESOTA, 8:30 ET, 9/18.

The Vikings scrounged out a gritty win against the Titans on their top-five defense, but they won’t get away with that this week. The Minnesota defense is perfectly capable of limiting Aaron Rodgers and Co., because they’re that good. But they need to get something out of their offense to have a chance in this one. Adrian Peterson ran for 31 yards on 19 carries last week, and Shaun Hill is still Shaun Hill. Rodgers won’t make the same mistakes Marcus Mariota made. I don’t like Minny’s chances.

Green Bay 24, Minnesota 14

MONDAY NIGHT

CHICAGO (-3) over Philadelphia, 8:35 ET, 9/19.

Chicago held its own against a pretty good Texans team last week, but Houston proved to be a little too much. Meanwhile, Philly had fun beating up on the poor Browns at home. Against a real NFL team, albeit a very mediocre one, I think Carson Wentz shows his inexperience in his first game under the lights.

Chicago 20, Philadelphia 17

Last Week: 14–1

Photo credit: Matt Kartozian, USA Today