NFL Week 4 Picks
When you get on a losing streak like I am right now, you have to start looking at things differently. You have to identify what it was that you were missing, and figure that into your equation of picks. The last two weeks I’ve gone 7–8, and while there have been many upsets and unexpected turns, I need to do better. It starts this week. As always, the home team is in all caps and the line and time are given for reference.
(Note: I wrote this Sunday morning when the Jacksonville-Indianapolis game was already underway, so I didn’t include it)
WASHINGTON (-7.5) over Cleveland, 1:00 ET, 10/2.
Washington finally broke out of its funk against the hated Giants last week, even though they did everything they could to hand the game away. Now they get Cleveland, a little confidence booster to get them back to .500.
Washington 21, Cleveland 17
NEW ENGLAND (-5) over Buffalo, 1:00 ET, 10/2.
Jacoby Brissett will start again, and this one worries me. Brissett has a pretty significant thumb injury, and the Bills just ran all over the Cardinals last week. However, two things make me believe the Patriots will be 4–0 when Tom Brady returns next week: 1) Bill Belichick has a long week to prepare for a divisional opponent at home, and 2) the Bills are a one-dimensional offense and Belichick thrives on taking away the opposing team’s best option. If Tyrod Taylor has to win this game with his arm, well, he won’t.
New England 21, Buffalo 20
Carolina (-3) over ATLANTA, 1:00 ET, 10/2.
I still believe in Carolina. No one looks good against the Vikings defense, and I was encouraged by how the Panthers played the Minnesota offense. Atlanta beat New Orleans in a shootout on Monday night, but Carolina won’t let them score that many points.
Carolina 27, Atlanta 20
Oakland over BALTIMORE (-3.5), 1:00 ET, 10/2.
Okay. This ends here. Baltimore is nowhere near as good as their record suggests. They’ve beaten Buffalo, Cleveland, and Jacksonville, all bottom ten teams, and all unconvincingly. Oakland has the playmakers to beat Baltimore for big chunks of yardage, and somehow have the best defense the Ravens have faced.
Oakland 28, Baltimore 24
NY JETS over Seattle (-1.5), 1:00 ET, 10/2.
Seattle’s offensive line is awful, maybe the worst in the league. They struggle against strong front sevens, and that’s the Jets’ strength on defense. Russell Wilson will be running for his life all day. I know Ryan Fitzpatrick threw six interceptions in Kansas City last week, but now he’s back in the friendly confines of the Meadowlands. By the way, don’t underestimate how hard the cross country trip is for Seattle. They’re gonna feel like they’re playing this game at 10 o’clock in the morning.
New York 17, Seattle 14
Detroit (-3) over CHICAGO, 1:00 ET, 10/2.
This feels to me like one Detroit might drop. After all, they have to keep us on our toes after a competitive loss in Lambeau last week. Marvin Jones has been absolutely killing it as Matthew Stafford’s number one option, and he can carve up that Bears secondary. Plus, Chicago just looked so helpless on Sunday night in Dallas.
Detroit 24, Chicago 20
HOUSTON (-4) over Tennessee, 1:00 ET, 10/2.
I was tempted to go with Tennessee in this one, because of the toll the Texans have to face of losing J.J. Watt and that depressing defeat at the hands of the Patriots. However, the Titans are really not very good. Like, at all. With a long week to prepare and the home crowd behind them, I think Houston pulls this one out.
Houston 20, Tennessee 17
Denver (-3) over TAMPA BAY, 4:05 ET, 10/2.
This is going to be one of those classic Denver games from last year. They’re going to struggle with a young, dynamic team, get thoroughly outplayed but hang around, and the defense is going to make a big play in the final five minutes. I can see it now: tie game, 3 minutes left, Jameis Winston starting a drive to win, Chris Harris Jr. pick, easy field goal, game over.
Denver 20, Tampa Bay 17
Dallas (-1) over SAN FRANCISCO, 4:25 ET, 10/2.
The 49ers did well to hang around with Carolina and Seattle in consecutive weeks, but there’s a big difference between hanging around and actually winning in this league. Dak Prescott is the future of the Cowboys, whether he deserves it or not, and I think the Dallas run attack will be enough to pull this one out.
Dallas 21, San Fransisco 20
New Orleans over SAN DIEGO (-4), 4:25 ET, 10/2.
This plays into my rule: the Chargers are worse at home than they are on the road. The Saints aren’t exactly killers on the road, but they’re also not as bad as their 0–3 record suggests. Not quite, anyway. I’m looking for Drew Brees to have a huge game against that porous Chargers defense.
New Orleans 30, San Diego 27
ARIZONA (-9.5) over Los Angeles, 4:25 ET, 10/2.
Fair play to the Rams; they lead the NFC West through three weeks. Who saw that coming, especially after that opening night shut-out at the hands of the 49ers? But now we’re back to reality. The Cardinals desperately need a win, and the Rams… well, they’re just not good.
By the way, how crazy was this interception by Patrick Peterson?
I swear that guy could be a top-ten receiver if he wanted to.
Arizona 31, Los Angeles 17
PITTSBURGH (-3.5) over Kansas City, 8:30 ET, 10/2.
I don’t completely believe Carson Wentz is a fluke anymore, but that whupping he handed the Steelers certainly was. Pittsburgh is still really good, and they get Le’Veon Bell back against Kansas City. The Chiefs are a completely different team on the road, as evidenced by their performance against the Jets. Unfortunately, they aren’t in Kansas City anymore.
Pittsburgh 28, Kansas City 24
MONDAY NIGHT
MINNESOTA (-4.5) over NY Giants, 8:30 ET, 10/3.
Minnesota is legit.That defense has shades of Denver’s from last year. They just swarm the line, swarm your quarterback, swarm your running back. They’re relentless, and they have a good history against Eli Manning. The Giants have what it takes to give Sam Bradford a tough time, but as shown last week, sometimes it doesn’t matter when you have that type of defense.
Minnesota 23, New York 21
Last Week: 7–8
Season: 28–17
