NFL Week 5 Picks
He’s baaaaaack. Yes, Tom Brady will be playing his first game of the season for the New England Patriots after serving his four-game suspension. It couldn’t come at a better time for Pats fans, who had to suffer through a shut-out loss to Buffalo at home last week with rookie Jacoby Brissett at the helm. Brady starts his revenge tour in Cleveland, and the rest of the league should be quaking in their boots. However, they have games to focus on today, a fair number of interesting ones as a matter of fact. Let’s get into them.
New England (-10.5) over CLEVELAND, 1:00 ET, 10/9.
I don’t think New England will cover the line. I think that would be too difficult with a rusty quarterback, plus the tackling was awful against the Bills last week. That doesn’t bode well against Isiah Crowell, Terrell Pryor, and Cleveland’s number one ranked rushing attack. But Brady’s return opens up the playbook, meaning Belichick and McDaniels aren’t working with one arm tied behind their back anymore.
New England 27, Cleveland 21
MINNESOTA (-6.5) over Houston, 1:00 ET, 10/9.
Here’s the vibe I’m getting from Minnesota for this year: 14–2, first round bye, incredible defense, heart-breaking loss in the NFC Championship game. They’re really good, but they’re the Vikings. Something’s gonna go wrong. That won’t be the case this week, though, because Houston has a disappointing offense and a J.J. Watt-less defense.
Minnesota 21, Houston 17
Tennessee over MIAMI (-3.5), 1:00 ET, 10/9.
I can just see Marcus Mariota and Demarco Murray slashing through that porous Miami defense. The Dolphins looked irretrievable last Thursday against Cincinnati, and Ryan Tannehill has proven that he can’t be a consistently productive quarterback in this league. The Titans are still within shouting distance of the AFC South lead, so this is a must-win.
Tennessee 23, Miami 21
PITTSBURGH (-9) over NY Jets, 1:00 ET, 10/9.
Okay, I’m out. The Jets aren’t very good. Everything about them has been disappointing, even Matt Forte in the last two games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh got back to business with a dominating effort over Kansas City, the same team that picked Fitzpatrick off six times and beat the Jets 24–3 two weeks ago. Now New York has to go into Pittsburgh? Yikes.
Pittsburgh 31, New York 24
BALTIMORE (-4) over Washington, 1:00 ET, 10/9.
You know, I’m not a huge fan of either of these teams. I haven’t believed in Baltimore from day one, and they proved they can’t beat good teams with their effort against Oakland last week. However, Washington isn’t good. Quite the opposite, actually. They got their Browns bye last week, but this one will be tough for Kirk Cousins to pull out on the road.
Baltimore 24, Washington 21
Philadelphia (-3.5) over DETROIT, 1:00 ET, 10/9.
Philadelphia’s fairly easy schedule has helped them to an undefeated start, but they do have a very impressive blowout of the Steelers under their belts. Carson Wentz is good, and has the chance to be great, but the great ones win this type of game: on the road, coming off a bye, bad but motivated opponent. We’ll see what Wentz does, but whatever he has should be enough to take down the Lions.
Philadelphia 24, Detroit 20
INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) over Chicago, 1:00 ET, 10/9.
I never know what’s going on with either of these teams. One week Andrew Luck can play well enough to lift his team to the win; the next everyone around him completely brings him down. But Chicago just doesn’t really have much talent at all. I’ll go with the Colts because they have home field advantage and the better quarterback (by far).
Indianapolis 23, Chicago 20
DENVER (-4) over Atlanta, 4:05 ET, 10/9.
Denver has officially reached the point where I can’t pick against them until they lose and prove me wrong. They’ve still got a dominating defense and have added a fairly prolific offense to boot. If there’s any defensive backfield that can keep Julio Jones down after his 300-yard performance last week, it’s Denver’s No Fly Zone.
Denver 24, Atlanta 23
LOS ANGELES over Buffalo (-2), 4:25 ET, 10/9.
The Rams succeed when playing similar smash-mouth teams, and that’s exactly what the Bills are. There’s no way Buffalo can keep up the clip they’re playing at now, with big wins over Arizona and New England in consecutive weeks. They’re the Bills, so they have to screw up at some point. Plus, Aaron Donald is going to go crazy because he still remembers when Rex Ryan said Donald couldn’t hold Sheldon Richardson’s jock in 2014. Look for a big performance from Donald today.
Los Angeles 17, Buffalo 14
OAKLAND (-3.5) over San Diego, 4:25 ET, 10/9.
Look, Oakland is good. They aren’t as good as Denver, but they could definitely get an AFC wild card spot. And the Chargers… well, they’re kind of depressing. They’ve been ravaged by injuries that they couldn’t afford to take in the first place. San Diego being on the road makes this slightly more interesting, but I fully expect Derek Carr and Co. to tear the Charger’s defense a new one.
Oakland 31, San Diego 27
Cincinnati (-2) over DALLAS, 4:25 ET, 10/9.
I’m excited for this one because I think both of these teams are good and could play each other competitively. But Dallas really doesn’t have anyone to match up with A.J. Green, and Dez Bryant is still questionable to play with a knee injury. That and the fact that Cincy had a long week to prepare make the difference. The Bengals won’t let Dak Prescott and Ezikiel Elliott run all over them.
Cincinnati 24, Dallas 21
GREEN BAY (-7) over NY Giants, 8:30 ET, 10/9.
Aaron Rodgers came back in a big way against Detroit two weeks ago after some early-season struggles, and then he had his bye. Giving Rodgers two weeks to prepare for a primetime game at Lambeau? And with all the turmoil going on with Odell Beckham Jr.? I’ll gladly take the Pack in this one.
Green Bay 28, New York 21
MONDAY NIGHT
CAROLINA (-4.5) over Tampa Bay, 8:30 ET, 10/10.
Okay, Carolina. Now is the time. You’re 1–3. You haven’t had the easiest schedule, but Tampa has also been battered by their match-ups. Jameis Winston is not performing up to his potential. Doug Martin is out and Charles Sims may be as well. If there were ever a time to get a big win and start your season’s redemption, it’s now. This is a must-win with the Falcons sitting at 3–1.
Carolina 27, Tampa Bay 23
Last Week: 8–5
Season: 36–22
