NFL Week 7 Picks
So the NFL’s ratings are way down this season. Like, dangerously so. Can we attribute this to a temporary and non-threatening reason, like the presidential election taking viewers? Or is there a more serious connection? Is this the beginning of the downturn the NFL was predicted to have following the rise of the concussion issue? Is the quality of play down? I don’t have the answers. But I’ll try to have them for this week’s picks. In the meantime, the NFL better figure out the problem and address it quickly, or they’ll have a major issue. The home team is in all caps.
NY Giants (-2.5) over Los Angeles, 9:30 AM ET, 10/23.
Odell Beckham Jr. has broken out of his early-season woes, which means he could be out to destroy the league. The Giants have definitely been a disappointment so far, but their inevitable run to a Super Bowl to beat a seemingly unstoppable Patriots team is always on the table, and could begin in London this week.
New York 21, Los Angeles 17
TENNESSEE (-3) over Indianapolis, 1:00 ET, 10/23.
With J.J. Watt out and Brock Osweiler playing like an overgrown 12-year-old, Tennessee still has a chance in the AFC South, especially with how easy its schedule is. If they’re going to threaten at all, they need to win games like this: at home against a very bad Indy team. Andrew Luck may be able to save the Colts, but I’m going to go with the Titans.
Tennessee 24, Indianapolis 21
CINCINNATI (-10) over Cleveland, 1:00 ET, 10/23.
I’m still looking for that first Cleveland win, but I don’t think it’s coming this week. The Bengals are pissed because they’re 2–4 and lost a very winnable game against the Patriots by 18 last week. They’ll come out with a fire the Browns can’t match.
Cincinnati 31, Cleveland 17
Oakland over JACKSONVILLE (-1.5), 1:00 ET, 10/23.
Oakland is just a better team than Jacksonville is. Plain and simple. The Raiders are still waiting for their defense to have a game where they live up to their potential from the off-season. There’s no better opposing quarterback to face when your defense is dealing with dysfunction than Blake Bortles.
Oakland 28, Jacksonville 27
KANSAS CITY (-6) over New Orleans, 1:00 ET, 10/23.
Kansas City is a completely different team at home. The defense flies around, swarming ball-carriers and ball-hawking passes. The offense is a little shiftier at home, breaking tackles this way and that. I just don’t think the Saints have what it takes.
Kansas City 28, New Orleans 24
Minnesota (-3) over PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 ET, 10/23.
Minnesota has the best defense in the league and is the benefactor of Sam Bradford’s mid-career revelation. You don’t think he’s going to be motivated going into his old stadium to face his former team?
Carson Wentz has proven that he could be a franchise quarterback down the line. But right now, he’s just a rookie going up against a great defense. I like the Vikings.
Minnesota 24, Philadelphia 20
Baltimore over NY JETS (-1.5), 1:00 ET, 10/23.
I don’t really understand why the Jets are favored here. Sure, they’re at home and facing an uninspiring, 3–3 Ravens team. But they’re turning to Geno Smith to save them from their woes. Geno Smith is terrible! Why are people expecting him to be any better than Ryan Fitzpatrick?
Baltimore 20, New York 17
Buffalo (-2.5) over MIAMI, 1:00 ET, 10/23.
I think people are overreacting to Miami’s crushing of the Steelers last week. Buffalo isn’t going to let Jay Ajayi run all over them like Pittsburgh did. Plus, the Bills have a pretty devastating run attack of their own, one which I think carries them to a victory over the Dolphins.
Buffalo 27, Miami 23
Washington over DETROIT (-1.5), 1:00 ET, 10/23.
Washington scored a pretty impressive win over the Eagles last week, and it seems like they’re gaining confidence as a team. The defense is much improved over earlier weeks, and Kirk Cousins only needs a little mental boost to play above-average football. Matthew Stafford hasn’t thrown away a game with interceptions yet this season, so you know it’s coming at some point.
Washington 24, Detroit 23
Tampa Bay over SAN FRANCISCO (-1), 4:05 ET, 10/23.
The Buccaneers just have the playmakers to win the game with a big play at the end if it’s close. San Francisco is scrappy, but they just aren’t very talented. Colin Kaepernick was flat-out bad in his return to the starting role last week, so I see no reason why the 49ers should be able to outscore the Bucs.
Tampa Bay 27, San Francisco 20
ATLANTA (-6) over San Diego, 4:05 ET, 10/23.
Look out for a close, high-scoring game here. The Falcons have a great offense and have shown what they’re made of with a win in Denver and a close loss in Seattle the last two weeks. But that defense is scary, especially against Philip Rivers. This game could show whether the Falcons are truly worthy of being labeled as Super Bowl contenders.
Atlanta 35, San Diego 31
New England (-7) over PITTSBURGH, 4:25 ET, 10/23.
I would pick Pittsburgh if Ben Roethlisberger was playing. But he’s not, and the Patriots dominate back-up quarterbacks. They’ve also had a lot of success against the Steelers during Bill Belichick’s tenure, which tells me he just has their number. With Tom Brady back and the offense in high gear, I like the Patriots.
New England 33, Pittsburgh 24
Seattle over ARIZONA (-1), 8:30 ET, 10/23.
Yeah, the Cardnals have won two straight since starting 1–3. But those victories came against the 49ers and Jets, two of the league’s bottom-tier teams. Not exactly impressive. Meanwhile, Seattle has picked up its play after a slow start thanks to its dominant defense, which has carried a hobbled Russell Wilson to a 4–1 record. That defense is going to punch Carson Palmer in the mouth and turn the ball over early and often.
Seattle 27, Arizona 21
MONDAY NIGHT
DENVER (-8) over Houston, 8:30 ET, 10/24.
It’s Brock Osweiler’s homecoming. He needs to come through with a big performance to prove his worth, not only to the team that let him walk, but to the team that paid him $72 million over four years to play quarterback. So far, he hasn’t given anyone reason to think that was a good idea, and I don’t see it happening this week either. Denver had a long week to prepare and must be hungry after a disappointing loss to the Chargers last Thursday.
Denver 24, Houston 14
Last Week: 7–7
Season: 50–35
