NFL Week One Picks
The NFL season has finally started. With the Broncos’ Thursday night win over the Panthers, our national fix for professional football was thankfully addressed. Now let’s look forward to the rest of Week 1. For my picks, I put the gambling line for reference so the reader knows who’s favored and by how much. I’m picking the games, not telling you who to gamble on. The time of the game is also given and the home team is in all-caps.
Green Bay (-5.5) over JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 ET, 9/11.
Think about this: everything went wrong for the Packers last year, and they still won a playoff game (and came close to stealing another). With wide receiver Jordy Nelson back in the fold as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target, Rodgers might go on a destruction tour of the entire league.
Jacksonville got a lot of buzz this off-season because of the young trio of quarterback Blake Bortles and receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. I just think they’re one more year away from making the jump into the postseason.
Green Bay 31, Jacksonville 24
KANSAS CITY (-6.5) over San Diego, 1:00 ET, 9/11.
Oakland is the trendy pick to take the AFC West crown, but I think the Chiefs will win the division this year. They have a great and balanced defense, a consistent running game, and quarterback Alex Smith continues to improve. He has good weapons in tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin to help him out.
Meanwhile, the main story of San Diego’s off-season was their inability to sign third overall pick Joey Bosa, a stalemate which came to an end last week. It didn’t help the Chargers’ already lackluster team reputation, and may still be a distraction this week despite Bosa being out. They may still have Philip Rivers and receiver Keenan Allen, but that won’t be enough to take down Kansas City.
Kansas City 30, San Diego 17
Tampa Bay over ATLANTA (-2.5), 1:00 ET, 9/11.
Tampa Bay is similar to Jacksonville in that I believe in the talent, but I think they’re a year or two away. They still don’t have a consistent defense, and Jameis Winston is still going through growing pains of learning the quarterback position at the professional level. But Tampa has a dynamic trio of their own in Winston, RB Doug Martin, and WR Mike Evans, and the difference between them and Jacksonville is that the Bucs don’t have to play Green Bay. The Falcons have some talent of their own in RB Devont’a Freeman and demigod WR Julio Jones, but they shoot themselves in the foot all the time. I’m going with the upset.
Tampa Bay 28, Atlanta 27
Oakland over NEW ORLEANS (-1.5), 1:00 ET, 9/11
I like Oakland to take an AFC wild card spot this season. New Orleans doesn’t stand a chance against Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, and the new acquisitions Oakland made on defense should be enough to hold off Drew Brees. Brees is still going strong at 37 years old, and his ability alone tells me that this will be a very high scoring game. It’s all going to come down to which defense can get one big stop, and Oakland is simply better on that side of the ball.
Oakland 41, New Orleans 38
HOUSTON (-6) over Chicago, 1:00 ET, 9/11.
Jay Cutler really isn’t as bad as everyone thinks. He had a career high 92.3 quarterback rating last season and had his second best INT%. But the Bears just aren’t very talented, and Cutler doesn’t have the ability to overcome that against a superior team. This should be a nice, easy tune-up for QB Brock Osweiler and RB Lamar Miller, new additions to the Texans’ offense. I think those two, along with star wideout Deandre Hopkins, can rip the Bears’ uninspiring defense for big chunks of yardage. And let’s not forget that J.J. Watt is there to haunt Cutler’s nightmares.
Houston 27, Chicago 17
BALTIMORE (-3) over Buffalo, 1:00 ET, 9/11.
I have absolutely no desire to watch this game. Both of these teams are boring and/or depressing. The Bills would be good, but they lost so many defensive playmakers and don’t have the offensive firepower to make up for it.
The Ravens have so many old geezers that it’s no wonder they were walloped by injuries last year. In this league, you can’t rely on thirty-somethings to stay healthy and play well for you. However, the Bills already have a bunch of players missing, so I have to take the Ravens at home.
Baltimore 24, Buffalo 21
Minnesota (-2.5) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET, 9/11.
The Vikings have named Shaun Hill as their starting QB for this game over the newly acquired Sam Bradford. Perhaps this is the right choice, even though the Ringer’s Kevin Clark wrote this yesterday: “Shaun Hill, who is 36, was bad before he also got old.” Not exactly what you want from your starting quarterback. Still, I think Adrian Peterson and the Vikings’ stifling defense can carry them to a win over the young Titans. Marcus Mariota may be promising, but he’ll have a tough time against this Vikings defense.
Minnesota 14, Tennessee 10
Cincinnati (-2.5) over NEW YORK (J), 1:00 ET, 9/11.
I was very tempted to go with the Jets here. They’re a good team with a frightening front seven and dynamic receivers, and they should benefit from the all-around skill of new RB Matt Forte. But it’s hard to go against the Bengals in September. They still have a really good defense, a good quarterback, a consistent running back committee, and the monster that is A.J. Green. I’ll wait to start picking against the Bengals until the playoffs roll around.
Cincinnati 28, New York 24
PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) over Cleveland, 1:00 ET, 9/11.
Believe it or not, I actually wanted to pick Cleveland here. This strikes me as one of those crazy Week 1 games where a team that doesn’t do anything the rest of the season and shouldn’t win this game prevails. But as you go through Cleveland’s roster, you notice they’re just completely devoid of talent. Philly isn’t great either and are starting rookie QB Carson Wentz, who suffered a hairline fracture in his ribs and missed much of the preseason, but they’re still better than the Browns.
Philadelphia 24, Cleveland 17
SEATTLE (-10.5) over Miami, 4:05 ET, 9/11.
Seattle is loaded, Russell Wilson is my MVP pick, and the defense is still crazy talented. What does Miami have? A rookie offensive lineman who posted a video of himself smoking through a mask right before the draft, a quarterback who needed to be protected from the practice squad, and one reliable playmaker on defense. And Seattle is at home.
Seattle 35, Miami 14
New York (G) over DALLAS (PK), 4:25 ET, 9/11.
Rookie QB Dak Prescott was certainly impressive for Dallas in the preseason, completing 78% of his passes on 9.08 yards per attempt and 7 total touchdowns with no interceptions. But it’s far easier to look good in the preseason, against second- and third-string personnel, than it is when the lights are on you for the real deal. Dallas is the more talented team, but it’s just really hard to win games with a rookie quarterback. New York appears poised to take the NFC East, and honestly, who on Dallas is covering Odell Beckham Jr.?
New York 24, Dallas 20
Detroit over INDIANAPOLIS (-3), 4:25 ET, 9/11.
Andrew Luck may be back and healthy, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Colts had the 25th-ranked defense last season. I need to see Luck play like he did two seasons ago before I can get excited about Indy. I’m not the biggest fan of Matthew Stafford, and the loss of Calvin Johnson is a huge blow to Detroit’s offense. But they still have weapons in Golden Tate and Marvin Jones and went 5–2 to finish last season. Over the last nine games, the ones under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, the Lions ranked 9th in offensive DVOA. The improvement came because Cooter’s system relied on short, efficient throws that protected Stafford from making bad decisions. If the offense can keep that up, the Lions will open the season with a road win.
Detroit 28, Indianapolis 24
ARIZONA (-7) over New England, 8:30 ET, 9/11.
I honestly thought the Patriots had a chance in this game until Friday when the Patriots announced TE Rob Gronkowski will not be playing, along with offensive linemen Nate Solder and Jonathan Cooper. Against a defense that is already one of the best in the NFL, losing those three is a huge blow to QB Jimmy Garoppolo in his first start. I just don’t think the Patriots can compete with the Cardinals talent without the services of Tom Brady and Gronk. The Patriots’ defense is good and talented, but they can’t dominate the game in the way they would need to to win, especially not against all the weapons QB Carson Palmer has at his disposal. Look for Arizona DE Chandler Jones, a former Patriot, to play particularly inspired after New England traded him in March.
Arizona 31, New England 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Pittsburgh (-3) over WASHINGTON, 7:10 ET, 9/12.
Even without WR Martavis Bryant and RB Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers are a dangerous offense. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are the league’s deadliest one-two punch and DeAngelo Williams plays as much like a starting running back as a back-up can. I like Washington more than others, but the Steelers might be bound for the Super Bowl. I don’t think Kirk Cousins can match Big Ben throw for throw.
Pittsburgh 31, Washington 27.
SAN FRANSISCO (-2.5) over Los Angeles, 10:20 ET, 9/12.
The Rams haven’t had a great off-season. The move to Los Angeles from St. Louis was marred by the incredible amount of assets they traded to draft Jared Goff number one overall, and Goff’s subsequent horrid pre-season performance didn’t help. This feels like another one of those weird Week 1 games that doesn’t go how it’s supposed to, like the 49ers’ win over Minnesota in the same Monday night game last season. I think the 49ers win this game, then win about two more for the rest of the season.
San Fransisco 16, Los Angeles 13.
