NFL Wild Card Picks
The first round of the NFL Playoffs are here, and a weekend that usually gives us joy and glimpses of teams who could make a run at the Super Bowl has gifted us with… three backup quarterbacks and five offenses that ranked in the bottom half of the league in points per game? That doesn’t equate to entertaining football viewing.
However, if you’re a football nerd, it can still be a great weekend. Here is a list of the things about this weekend that football junkies should love, in no particular order:
- Seeing if Khalil Mack and Oakland’s battering offensive line can carry the Raiders to victory. When Derek Carr broke his leg, so shattered any hopes Oakland had of making or winning the Super Bowl. However, they’re perfectly capable of beating the comically flawed Texans, once again led by Brock Osweiler, with great performances from Mack, a premier pass rusher, and a strong offensive line that has opened holes for Latavius Murray all year. Left tackle Donald Penn is out, however, so the rest of the line will have to pick up the slack.
- Can Pittsburgh’s offense kick it into high gear? With the trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown, as well as a number of talented young receivers, many people came into this year expecting the Steelers to sport a historically lethal offense. Instead, the unit has simply been good enough to help eke the team into the postseason. If Pittsburgh wants any chance of winning the AFC, they need to play up to their potential on that side of the ball.
- How will Russell Wilson pull out yet another miraculous playoff victory, and where will it rank in the lore of Lions heartbreak? Wilson has had impressive early-career playoff success, and it has often come in unexpected ways, from his four interception performance against Green Bay in the 2014 NFC Championship Game to last year’s lucky escape in Minnesota assisted by Blair Walsh’s shanked field goal. Detroit already has its share of sadness after dropping their last three and losing their lead in the NFC North, and it only seems fitting that they would lose in the playoffs in depressing fashion yet again.
See? There are interesting aspects to watch in between the displays of quarterback ineptitude. Now on to the picks.
HOUSTON (-4) over Oakland
Again, I don’t have high hopes for this game’s entertainment value. It would be hard to in a contest pitting a quarterback with no experience who’s probably bad, and one who we know is bad from experience. Expect this game to be low-scoring.
The Carr injury is a huge blow to an Oakland team that had Super Bowl aspirations. Carr, along with star wideouts Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, made the Raiders the league’s most entertaining offense, capable of putting up points in a hurry and coming back from a number of late-game deficits. Now without Carr, the Raiders’ offense will have to rely on Murray to gain yardage, control the clock, and take the pressure off of Connor Cook.
The Raiders’ defense will have to step up as well. All season long, this below-average unit was bailed out by an offense that simply outscored other teams. There is good news for this unit, however. First, Mack is capable of being a Von Miller-level one man wrecking crew that carries and uplifts the rest of the defense. Second, Osweiler is little capable of making the big throws necessary to destroy Oakland’s weak secondary.
Osweiler has been historically bad this season, at least for a free agent signing who was given as much money as he was. The only way this Texans offense can get in the end zone is on long, methodical drives, and Osweiler doesn’t have the skill necessary to keep making the right decisions all the way up the field. We’ll have to see if he can step his game up here, a process that starts with getting DeAndre Hopkins the ball.
The Texans have the league’s top-ranked defense, and that will be the unit that wins them this game. Even without J.J. Watt, they have been great on that side of the ball this season, led by Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus as pass rushers. Even if their performance was inflated by an easy schedule, being in the AFC South, the Texans’ defense is legit, and won’t let Cook beat them.
Houston 17, Oakland 14
SEATTLE (-8) over Detroit
This isn’t the same Seattle team we’re used to seeing, and it starts with the defense. It’s still good, but without Earl Thomas, they’re missing their leader and best player in a stacked defensive backfield. Michael Bennett will have to be an All-World pass rusher if the Seahwaks have any chance of winning the NFC.
The troubles continue on offense, stemming from the offensive line. They can’t get any push to open up the run, and they can’t stand their ground to keep Wilson clean. Being the escape artist that he is, Wilson still manages to make plays with his legs, but without speedy receiver Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks have lost their big play ability. Injuries at running back don’t help the issues in the running game.
The Lions floundered in their three straight losses to end the year, showing that their record up until that point may have been due to luck in close games. Still, Matthew Stafford has shown that he plays well with the game on the line, an important trait in the playoffs, and he had a great season. The Lions still have a non-existent running game, but the offensive transition towards shorter passes made Stafford more efficient and limited his mistakes. Unfortunately, Stafford’s finger injury has hindered his performance in recent weeks.
The Lions’ defense had been playing really well, until they gave up 42 and 31 points to the Cowboys and Packers respectively the last two weeks. Granted, that’s only two weeks against two of the best offenses in the league, but you want your team to have a positive trend going into the postseason. The Seahwaks should be able to throw on the Lions’ secondary.
Seahawks 23, Detroit 20
PITTSBURGH (-10.5) over Miami
These two teams played in Week 6, with Miami notching a dominant 30–15 win, kickstarting the team’s playoff run. Jay Ajayi had an incredible 204 rushing yards, which I don’t think he’ll replicate, but it does show that they can run on Pittsburgh’s flimsy rush defense. This Miami offense features yet another backup quarterback in Matt Moore, who is adequate but not prolific enough to match up with Pittsburgh’s offensive talent.
Miami’s defense has been good this year, led up front by Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake. Similar to the Lions, however, they’re not going into the postseason playing their best after giving up 35 points to the Patriots at home in Week 17. I don’t love this unit’s chances against Le’Veon Bell, as the Dolphins ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed.
The Steelers will almost definitely rely on Bell, who became the first player to average 100 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards per game, because of Miami’s weakness against the run. Miami did a great job on Brown, holding him to 39 yards n four catches, and they’ll need to continue that. Roethlisberger needs to be more consistent if he’s going to carry this team to the Super Bowl.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been decidedly average, against both the run and the pass. Despite their horrid performance against Ajayi, their pass defense, 19th, ranked worse than their run defense, 13th. This could mean good things for them because I doubt Matt Moore is going to waltz into Heinz Field and make the plays necessary to win a playoff game. This one could be a shootout, and in that scenario I’m taking the Pro Bowl quarterback, not the backup.
Pittsburgh 30, Miami 26
NY Giants (+5) over GREEN BAY
After starting 4–6 and facing questions about his performance, Aaron Rodgers delivered on his prediction that the Packers could run the table. Rodgers has been fantastic, throwing 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the last six games. Ty Montgomery answered Green Bay’s running back questions, giving them some big play ability from that position. This unit is playing great right now, averaging almost 31 points in the last six games.
Green Bay’s run has also coincided with a defensive improvement. Earlier in the year, after an abysmal performance against Washington, the team’s pass defense was roasted by the media, and rightfully so. They rank dead last in receiving yards allowed. However, they rank eighth against the rush, so the team can hold its own.
The Giants’ offense has been less than spectacular. Eli Manning has not been good despite high hopes for him and his talented receivers coming into the year. However, all it takes is one slant to Odell Beckham Jr. and he can break it for a touchdown. We’ll see if Manning and Beckham can take advantage of that Green Bay secondary, but it’s doubtful they’ll get anything going in the running game. New York ranked 29th in rushing yards, which is too bad because you need to be able to run the ball in cold weather games.
The Giants simply have one of the league’s best overall defenses. They rank fourth against the run and seventh in yards allowed per pass attempt. Since they’re so strong against the run due to natural talent up front, they can load up against the pass to limit Rodgers’ big play opportunities. The dirty little secret of the Packers’ run is that they played a bunch of lackluster teams: the Eagles, Texans, Seahawks (without Earl Thomas), Bears, Vikings, and Lions. The Giants, meanwhile, have proven themselves against the best beating the Cowboys twice. I like the Giants.
New York 24, Green Bay 23
Last Week: 5–1
Season: 140–82–1
