Now more than ever in the NBA, it’s Title or Tank
After one of the busiest trade deadlines in NBA history, one thing has become clearer now more than ever: Go all in, one way or another.
I’m not a huge fan of deciding winners or losers immediately following the trade deadline, because, in truth, only time will tell who really wins these deals. There’s not much substance to the idea of boldly proclaiming the Bucks are “Winners” after trading for Nikola Mirotic. It was a smart move on its face, but if they fail to reach the Eastern Conference Finals, then the exchange will be generally inconsequential.
What does interest to me, however, are the big picture implications of the choices teams made at the deadline. No longer are we in the days of “standing pat” at the trade deadline. Only one team can do that right now — the Warriors (and, apparently, the Hornets).
For everyone else, you have to choose between the only logical options available to you: Build, or Rebuild.
Step one to making that choice is answering a simple, but virtually impossible question: Do you have a player who can carry you to the Finals? If so, do everything possible to empower them and build around them NOW. Don’t have a star player? Sell off everything non-essential and rebuild to get one NOW — either through the draft (Sixers), trade (Raptors), or free agency (Lakers).
The age of player empowerment has shortened the timelines with which teams have to work. More specifically, this movement created by LeBron and accentuated by KD, Kyrie, Kawhi, and AD has put teams in a place where they have to convince their player that his current team is a worthy choice to call home beyond his second contract. More than that, they have to maximize the value they have from said player while they still can.
Now, low-key throw in the fact that there’s a dynasty brewing in the Bay Area, and now you are pouring Moon Shine on an already roaring fire. What complicates things further is the belief around the League that this dynasty is close to over with KD possibly leaving in the summer. Teams aren’t waiting for 2023 anymore, they’re angling for contention now.
The Rockets are the best example of this mindset. They found a true star in James Harden via trade, and they have been going for broke ever since. Now, we’re seeing Milwaukee, Toronto, Dallas, OKC, and Philadelphia follow suit, in one form or another.
Like the methodology or not, these teams are actually doing the right thing by going for it, because there legitimately is no other option. There is no guarantee that Simmons and Embiid stay in Philly, or that Giannis decides Wisconsin is home of the best smoothies in North America, or that Luka feels like everything is big enough for him in Texas. This new era is not about super teams, waiting on the Warriors’ dynasty to end, or hoarding assets (looking at you, Boston)… It’s about maximizing your window, NOW, and hoping you can do so again in the future.
Not every team understands this new reality, but some teams have come to grips with the fact that there truly is no other option. It’s not a matter of “what should we do?” It’s a matter of what you have to do. Toronto could be a train wreck next year if Kawhi leaves, but they also could have maintained aggressive mediocrity well into the 2020s had they never traded for him. And while they have him, even if only for a few more months, they have to squeeze every last drop out of his presence.
As for the Knicks and Clippers? They understood that they each had players who were good, but not great. What was each team’s quickest way to “great”? Make themselves available for greatness by opening up cap space and consequently tanking for a high draft pick.
The Knicks could very well look like fools if a healthy Porzingis takes the league by storm next season with Luka, which could happen on the heals of New York striking out in free agency and landing the 5th pick in the draft instead of the 1st. But the alternative is too overwhelmingly enticing to pass up. And what would they do otherwise? Hope KP stays healthy? Scratch out enough space for one max slot and then ship away two picks to get off of Hardaway Jr’s contract? In this new league, when you don’t believe you have the guy, you have to sell everything else off for as many bites at the superstar “apple” as possible.
And this new power dynamic is what fascinates me about this league. There used to be a time when Philly would roll with what they have and hold onto their assets and trade pieces for a rainy day, but that time has passed. AD’s trade request — in the wake of Kawhi, KD, and Kyrie’s never-ending drama — is a move that effectively forfeits his rights to a “Supermax Contract Extension”, and it clearly became a wakeup call to GMs around the league who employ players with similar potential.
In other words, teams no longer have 10–15 years to plan around Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, and Tim Duncan, and that’s why some teams are already adapting to this new, more fluid environment. Restricted free agency is no longer the weapon it once was for GMs, and max contracts are so MAX-y that $20 million feels more like a rounding error than a major differentiator.
And while we may end up seeing a lot of “boom turned bust” scenarios this summer (for example, KD, AD, JB, AD, and Kyrie all changing teams), I firmly believe the teams who were active at the trade deadline are doing the right things, even if it means creating an uncertain future — just as long as no one goes “full Nets”.
For NBA franchises, AD’s attempted power move should be the requisite notification that it’s time to choose a path forward. If you have a star, use him, if you don’t, find one. If you want to succeed in the new NBA, there is no other option.
