Super Bowl LI Pick
This year’s Super Bowl is a match-up of two really good, smart teams that don’t beat themselves and take advantage of the opposition’s mistakes. Needless to say, it’s not an easy game to pick. Both sides have so much talent and use it in the perfect ways. That means that the game will come down to who can overpower what the other team wants to do, whether through talent or game-planning. There’s plenty of both on each side, and it should make for a fantastic Super Bowl. Apart from Patriots and Falcons fans, all anyone can hope for is a good game, because these playoffs haven’t provided many of those.
The New England Patriots are very familiar with highly-contested Super Bowls. In six appearances in the big game under coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, the point differential has never been higher than 4. New England has won four of those, cementing themselves as one of the greatest dynasties this league has ever seen. It’s hard to think of a game where one side had more at stake in terms of legacy; no other dynasty had five championships under one regime, no quarterback has five championships, and they could join the 49ers and Cowboys as teams with five Super Bowl titles, second-most all time.
As much experience as the Patriots have, the Falcons are that unfamiliar with this big of a stage. This is only the team’s second Super Bowl appearance in franchise history, with the other coming in 1998 when none of the team’s current players were even in the NFL. However, that just means this game will matter more to the success-thirsty Falcons fans.
A few other non-football related points that don’t have any significance on how this game will play out but are fun to talk about: The resurgence of the city of Atlanta with Donald Glover’s excellent show named after the city… The desperation of Atlanta fans vs. the entitlement of Boston fans… The vengeance potential of Tom Brady taking the Lombardi Trophy from Roger Goodell… As if Brady needed any more motivation, Matt Ryan just won the MVP… A whole nation rooting for the Falcons even though people from Atlanta hardly root for their teams… The white jersey streak… Brady and Belichick cementing GOAT status with a win, etc.
Which leads us to the pick:
Atlanta (+3) over New England
I don’t doubt that Tom Brady and the Patriots’ will have an impressive performance in this game. Although the Falcons had an above-average pass defense in the regular season (11th in DVOA against the pass), they acquired that rank by playing a lot of soft zone, which Brady eats up. The Falcons had more success with their aggressive man-blitz defense against the Packers last week, but Brady is lethal against the blitz and inexperienced corners such as those of the Falcons. The Falcons were also dead last in DVOA against the run, so don’t be surprised if LaGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis figure heavily into the Patriots’ game plan. Brady’s offense should put up big numbers in this game.
But as I said, the Falcons have steadily improved on defense, culminating in a fantastic performance against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week. The Falcons have a small, quick defense, which hinders their effectiveness against the run, but gives them the ability to limit the opposition’s passing game and make big plays. That speed should help them against New England’s small, quick receivers and receiving backs who thrive on creating space and breaking tackles. Atlanta has the best defensive player in this game, Vic Beasley Jr., the NFL’s sack leader. If he can get pressure on Brady without the Falcons having to blitz, that will be huge for Atlanta.
The game will be won on the other side of the ball. New England has an impressive defense for the parts it’s composed of; not many stars, but a lot of very solid players who do their job and follow the game plan. They rode that and a schedule of below-average quarterbacks to earn the league’s best scoring defense, allowing only 15.6 PPG during the regular season. There isn’t really a big hole on this defense. They don’t generate a ton of pressure, but the defensive line is great at plugging running lanes and is opportunistic and clutch in getting to the passer. The linebackers are always in the right spots. The secondary will double cover Julio Jones with a corner and a high safety. This defense will give up some yardage, but keep the ball in front of itand tackle incredibly well. Bill Belichick knows how to game plan for explosive offenses with many dynamic weapons, and this should be the Falcons’ biggest test yet.
Fortunately, the Falcons are well-prepared and well-equipped to attack any defensive personnel and scheme. It’s hard to think of a team in recent years that had more weapons, and used them better, than this team. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has crafted a scheme that creates space for his many playmakers, and the success they’ve had on that side of the ball earned the Falcons the seventh most points in a regular season ever, and Shanahan a probable head coaching job with the 49ers. Matt Ryan revitalized his career this year with superior play, blending efficiency and big production in the most dangerous way possible on his way to an MVP award. His receivers are dynamic, athletic, and fill every role; Julio Jones is the Norse god with an unstoppable combination of size and speed, Taylor Gabriel is a small, quick receiver who thrives in space, and Mohamed Sanu seems to always make a play when they need him. You won’t win against a Belichick team if you turn the ball over, and the Falcons tied with the Patriots for fewest giveaways this season.
What really sets this Falcons offense apart is the running backs. Belichick’s teams usually do well against running backs, but this Falcons backfield is a whole different animal. It starts with Devont’a Freeman, who carries the load in the running game, but can also be an effective receiver. Tevin Coleman is a truly frightening athlete, able to run inside and outside the tackles, but he may also be the best receiving back in the league. The production these two have had out of the backfield sets up Atlanta’s play-action, which is where they get so many of those big plays downfield.
In a game of two great offenses, this game will come down to which side can be more explosive, which team can outscore the other. In that case, I have to go with the Falcons. They can mold their game plan to whatever the defense throws at them, because they have talent at every position. Yes, the Patriots have a good defense, but they don’t have the talent at every level to account for all of Atlanta’s weapons at once. The Patriots have a talented and efficient offense themselves, but the key will be the absence of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski has always been the centerpiece of New England’s offense, the big-play presence who opens things up for everyone else on that offense. Without him in there, I just don’t think the Patriots can keep up with a historically prolific offense.
Falcons 35, Patriots 28
Last Week: 1–1
Season: 147–85–1
