The Ladder: Week 4
Welcome to Week 4’s Ladder. Who saw these games coming? Patriots shut out? Falcons win and 500-yards from Matt Ryan? Another win from the zombie-Broncos who just won’t die? Perhaps, of all the larger looming questions from Week 4’s slew of games, the most important is whether or not it’s time to bury the Cardinals and Panthers as Super Bowl contenders? Each team’s QB suffered a possible concussion and their 1–3 records’ will be hard to crawl back from. For the Colts, Titans, Lions, and Chargers, head-coaching concerns are echoing loudly. A big win for the Jaguars and Gus Bradley helped his cause — though he’s likely trying to stuff an entire wardrobe’s worth of “fire him” rumors into a carry-on suitcase. Now, after a Sunday slate of games which started at 9:30am on the East Coast (which was probably the biggest treat of the weekend) and a week where John Kuhn scored three TDs for the Saints, let’s examine the latest version of The Ladder…
Please note that the rankings in The Ladder aren’t just based off of the result of the previous week, rather each team’s performance in the season to-date, as well as forecasting the prospect of team success in future weeks.
32. Cleveland Browns
As we expected, the losses are continuing to pile up in Cleveland. When news broke last Thursday that Josh Gordon was entering an inpatient rehab facility, Browns fans were yet again disappointed by what could’ve been a dangerous tandem of Gordon and rookie Corey Coleman. There just isn’t enough talent on offense and after losing Alex Mack, who’s playing extremely well for the Falcons, the Browns could be in line to lose All-Pro left tackle Joe Thomas as well if they decide it’s time to trade him. The Browns roster will be in flux as the year goes on, but they’re still looking for diamonds in the rough.
Cody Parkey’s leg was more accurate this Sunday compared to last, but a turnover filled second half sealed the Browns fate.
31. Miami Dolphins
Any fool could recognize that before this season began, with Tom Brady missing four games in New England and no one knowing what to expect from them, the rest of the AFC East had a chance to potentially gain some early ground on the annual division winning Patriots. A month into the season, the Dolphins are 1–3, the Jets are 1–3, the Bills are 2–2, and the Patriots, well of course, are 3–1. Miami’s only win came against the league-worst Browns — who took them to overtime. Big time offseason acquisition Byron Maxwell has been ineffective and was benched against the Bengals in their Thursday night loss.
For some, the jury is still out on Ryan Tannehill, but after watching QB Wizard Adam Gase sprinkle his magic pixie dust to the delight of Tim Tebow, Peyton Manning, and Jay Cutler — Tannehill appears impervious. They already face a must win game in Week 5 against the Titans if they want any chance at making a run for an AFC Wildcard — which seems all the more unlikely with each passing game.
30. Chicago Bears
The Bears first win of the season, and first at Solider Field in nearly a calendar year. Somehow, the Lions made Brian Hoyer look competent in this game. His touchdown to Eddie Royal in the first quarter was a nice throw, on the run, into a tight window. What’s more, their rookie running back Jordan Howard had another promising game replacing Jeremy Langford, who’d hardly made an impact thus far. If he can keep it up, Howard is exactly the type of player Chicago needs right now (after many failed draft picks), a late round selection with starter potential and playmaking ability.
(Sidenote: Because it’s the NFL and crappy teams sometimes surprise us and beat less crappy teams, the Bears could potentially, though unlikely, beat the Jaguars and Colts in the next two weeks and be 3–3 in time for a possible Cutler return.)
29. Detroit Lions
The Lions are a poorly coached team who’ve become completely one dimensional. The Bears were in their Nickel package for most of the game and did a good job covering Detroit’s receivers. Though Matt Stafford’s hardly been exceptional, he’s likely doing the best he can with limited resources. Golden Tate hasn’t looked right through four weeks and . For all their talent on both sides of the ball, the Lions aren’t playing well on either end. Last year’s offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi was fired following a Week 7 loss to the Vikings, and a 1–6 record. Given the roster and the team’s performance thus far, it’d be a surprise if Jim Caldwell made it to Week 8.
28. Tennessee Titans
Through four weeks of an NFL season, the bad coaches start to separate themselves from the good ones. The Titans, like the Lions, also have a bad one. An oft penalized team, they don’t have enough talent to escape the brunt of their mistakes. Too often, Marcus Mariota is careless with the football and tries to make plays when there is no play to be made. Through four games, he’s already turned the ball over 8 times this season. For a team with at least an average offensive-line and defense they should have a better record.
27. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners got out to an early lead against a Cowboys team who was down star receiver Dez Bryant. After scoring the first two touchdowns of the game and going up 14–0, they’d only score 3-points the rest of the game. About 3–4 times a game Chip Kelly’s offense will really look like it’s got potential with this bunch, however, it’s a fleeting feeling because they just don’t have the necessary talent. Starting with the offensive line, Joe Staley, a heralded player over the years, did not play well against the Cowboys — you’d hope it’s just one bad game and not indicative of something greater. Their other tackle, Trent Brown, on the other hand… is MASSIVE.
On the defensive side, they lost Navorro Bowman for the season to a torn achilles. Far and away the best player on their team — that news is an extremely tough pill to swallow. On the positive side, Arik Armstead had a really nice game facing an incredible Dallas O-Line. He’s able to drive his man wherever he wants due to his extreme upper body strength. He’ll be a nice piece going forward.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
25. Indianapolis Colts
The Jugger-NOTS — the Jags and Colts — were brought to London this week in an attempt to bury any hope of American football expanding beyond the borders of the United States. Jacksonville, the team that doesn’t wake up until 5 minutes into the fourth quarter, and the Colts, who go to sleep at halftime, duked it out to see who could be slightly above average. The Colts’ offensive line is quite bad and the fact that they’re relying so heavily on Frank Gore is a sign of their trying times. The Jaguars face an uphill battle toward mediocrity, because they’re still bad and their young players aren’t developing the way the should be. These two teams are numbers 1 and 2 on the list of coach/GM combos likely to be fired shortly.
24. San Diego Chargers
23. New Orleans Saints
Here we go again with teams who’re stuck in nearly the same position. Each team has an overly-qualified quarterback, limited offensive weapons, a terrible defense, and an injured-reserve list which stretches a mile long. Though the Chargers lost, they saw positive returns on their investments in Hunter Henry, the skilled rookie tight-end, and Dontrelle Inman, the young wideout who showed flashes last year, had a career day against the Saints depleted secondary. Without health, playmaking ability, or a defense who can’t prevent a team from scoring 30-points, there isn’t much to say about either team.
22. Washington Redskins
When the point-spreads for last week’s games came out and I saw that Washington was favored by 7.5 points over the Browns, I was timid because it looked like such a slam dunk for Cleveland. Jordan Reed and Matt Jones proved otherwise — as I was quickly reminded that this could happen.
And then this…
Two straight wins (though it’s really 1.5 since it’s the Browns) have now made the ‘Skins NFC East deficit much more manageable. Last year’s division champs will take on the Ravens next week for the “Best Team in MD” championship belt.
21. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are like the East Coast version of the LA Rams. They’re a defensive team, with a limited quarterback, a coach who’s often questioned, a solid running game, and they’ve each beaten two really good teams. The only difference for Buffalo is, their win against the Patriots came against a team led by an injured rookie quarterback, Jacoby Brissett.
Major positive signs were shown by the offensive line and LeSean McCoy had yet another solid game. Not much was asked of Tyrod Taylor in this contest, though there were plenty of opportunites to pick on the Patriots cornerbacks.
As far as the defense is concerned, Stephon Gilmore stood out with a strong game covering Julian Edelman and others. Also, Zach Brown, their WILL linebacker, is all over the field. He’s making plays behind the line of scrimmage, he’s tackling running backs on bubble screens, he’s doing everything — he’s a fun player to watch.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It took two QBs to get the job done, but the Broncos handled the Bucs like most have since their Week 1 victory over the Falcons. The only laurels being rested on with this team is it’s defensive line. Gerald McCoy is still just as hard to block as he was the day he stepped into the NFL and others are cashing in on his skill.
That’s called beating your man.
They still have so much to improve upon as a young team, but don’t worry Bucs… the Broncos do this to everyone.
19. New York Jets
These next three teams are what we call the Wildcard Wishfuls.
Through September, the Jets, considering their tough schedule, walk away 1–3. An ugly six-pick outing against the Chiefs was followed up by an extremely sloppy game offensively against the premier Seattle defense. Fitzpatrick’s INTs were down 50% percent (ugh) in this game and Matt Forte was ineffective and didn’t finish the game. Now Revis is injured, and the Jets are in bad shape. With Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Baltimore on their radar the next three weeks, an offensive coaching + quarterback change might be in play.
18. Kansas City Chiefs
Take the tape. Put it on for the team. Fast forward through it as fast as possible. Take out the tape. And burn it — take the ashes and discard them into the deepest area of the woods never to be seen again.
The Chiefs weren’t prepared for what Antonio Brown was about to deliver them. Their secondary probably didn’t even get the chance to check out his sweet Arnold Palmer kicks, because every time he was near them he was running past them.
Down 36–0, both teams had realized the game was over and KC was able to score two touchdowns to make it minutely less embarrassing. They’ll now have a bye week to lick their wounds and get back at it in Week 6. With four straight less than stellar defenses approaching (Raiders, Saints, Colts, Jaguars) there will be no excuse if this offense, or team for that matter, flounders.
17. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore’s undefeated season came to a close on Sunday, though Steve Smith Sr. tried his damdest to prevent it from happening. The truth is, Steve Smith Sr. might not actually be 37 and he might be playing some kind of Benjamin Button hoax on us.
In this game, the Ravens’ secondary couldn’t cover Michael Crabtree and Derek Carr had no trouble distributing the ball to his receiving populace. On the positive side, a defibrillator named Terrence West came in and re-energized a Ravens rushing attack (they released Justin Forsett this Tuesday). They were without rookie tackle Ronnie Stanley and Flacco was sacked twice in what was an underwhelming day on his behalf.
16. Dallas Cowboys
Dak does it again. Without Dez Bryant, the Cowboys were able to lock up a win in a game some, including myself, thought they’d lose. Ezekiel Elliott ran like a freaking gazelle in this game and by the second half San Francisco looked defunct on both ends. To see Dak Prescott lead the team back to victory from a 14–0 deficit was really encouraging for not only this year’s campaign — but the future of the franchise. Missing two starting offensive lineman, La’el Collins and Tyron Smith, puts a chink in the armor of a unit who — when healthy — stands above all others, but they overcame it. Though they still lack any significant pass rush, with Rod Marinelli calling the shots the likeliest scenario is that they’ll figure out a way to pressure the opposing QB.
15. New York Giants
We saw a different Giants offense on Monday Night against a menacing Minnesota front seven. Without Shane Vereen and Rashard Jennings, Eli Manning threw 45 passes — with little success to show for it. The story of this game was that the Giants failed to convert on third down — they were 2–12 for the game and committed 8 penalties for a total of 69 yards. Those sort of mistakes need be avoided against a tactical team like the Vikings.
On a rare third and long where the Giants actually went deep, they had a single-high safety look, with Xavier Rhodes covering OBJ. As the play begins, the safety bites on Sterling Shepard in the slot and quickly recognizes the ball is going to Beckham. Eli heaves the throw to Beckham, who is likely supposed to be running a post, but he runs the wrong route (or gives up on the throw) and the ball is intercepted.
Third down efficiency is a sign of a good team and the Giants have the weapons to convert— without question it’s an area of concern for this team going forward.
14. Oakland Raiders
Jack Del Rio has reinvigorated the Raiders’ (NFL’s favorite buzz word) ***CULTURE***. They’re off to their best start in nearly a decade and a half and their punter is suddenly dancing
That’ll get you fined, sir.
Nonetheless, the Raiders are playing great ball. Derek Carr looks like John Wayne when he’s out there gunslinging and Michael Crabtree is shoving Amari Cooper into the shadows. Their defense has looked much better in the last two weeks (they’re 2–0 when Karl Joseph starts), and they’re winning road games in tough environments. Reggie McKenzie deserves a lot of credit for the way he’s crafted this team and focused on the offensive and defensive lines.
Here’s Donald Penn on the play where Derek Carr threw the game winning touchdown pass. He literally takes Kamalei Correa and passes him to left guard Kelechi Osemele (who just finished staving off Timmy Jernigan), Penn then retreats back a few steps and keeps away a deflated Jernigan who’s all but given up.
Awesome.
13. Los Angeles Rams
2016’s biggest surprise, the Rams have ripped off three straight wins including two upsets against their contemporary NFC West darlings — the Cardinals and Seahawks. If I told you before the season that the Rams would be 3–1 and Todd Gurley wouldn’t have single 100 (or even 90) yard game, you’d likely wonder how that’s remotely possible.
The answer is, they’ve played sound defense and avoided fatal mistakes. Though they aren’t as good as their record indicates and are likely to regress closer toward the mean, they’ve proven that their defense is strong and that they can win big games against menacing opponents. It’s a wonder they’re winning with such little talent on offense, but Jeff Fisher’s team is finding ways to get the job done.
12. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers defensive backs if they already haven’t been, are in the process of being shipped to Texas right now because they were smoked, barbequed, charcoaled, whatever you want to call it, this Sunday. They pale in comparison to the way the began the season last year and questions about this team are slowly creeping in as the losses keep rearing their ugly head. Cam’s health has been a concern in every game and he had his bell rung a few times in this. Leaving with a possible concussion, if he’s out, so could be the Panthers. In a division ripe with poor defenses, the rest of the bunch should regress — while Carolina must hope their worst days are behind them.
11. Houston Texans
Shaky as they are, the Texans are 3–1. There’s all kinds of questions surrounding this team. Be it the coach, the QB, the defensive coaches, you name it. Against the Titans they weren’t able to get the ball in the hands of their greatest playmaker, DeAndre Hopkins. That’s a problem. Though Will Fuller can act as a solid proxy for Hopkins at times, it’s inexcusable that they were unable to find ways to manufacture some kind of involvement for him in this close game. Ultimately, Fuller was the difference maker in this one, as a 3rd quarter punt return was the game winning TD. Fuller has shown poise for a rookie and his role in the offensive will continue to grow going forward it’s fair to assume.
10. Arizona Cardinals
Right now, the Cardinals are a brand new shiny red Lamborghini with two popped tires and an empty gas tank. It might look great — but it hasn’t gone anywhere. In the back of our minds we know that the talent is just so overwhelming on this team that they can’t possibly be this bad. Carson Palmer, outside of a Tampa Bay blowout, hasn’t looked sharp and David Johnson hasn’t yet taken over a game the way we saw last year. If Palmer, who left last week’s game with a concussion, is forced to miss any extended time — things could get really dicey.
Against the Rams, the offensive line was ravaged by Aaron Donald and the Los Angeles defensive line. D.J. Humphries, in his first year as a starter for Arizona has been a letdown. He isn’t moving his feet quickly enough in pass-pro and is often caught unbalanced by stronger defensive ends.
9. Atlanta Falcons
Over the last nine months or so, Dan Quinn’s Falcons have been Carolina’s kyptonite. After spoiling their undefeated season late last December, the Falcons spoiled their Sunday as well when Matt Ryan threw for over 500-yards and four touchdowns. Julio Jones accomplished a feat which only five other receivers in the history of pro football have achieved by accruing over 300 receiving yards in a single game. Their offense was potent, as it has been all season. Alex Mack has been a welcoming addition to their offense line and does a great job in both pass protection and run blocking.
Despite their success, their offense cannot sustain their current level of play. They’ve been fortunate to win two shootout games in which their opponents tallied over 30-points. Up 31–10 entering the fourth quarter, the Panthers scored 23 points to pose a comeback late in the game — all thanks to a idle Falcons defense.
Here, you can see the Panthers have Kelvin Benjamin lined up in the slot — they do this often in order to levy KB’s size against smaller defensive backs— the Falcons have Desmond Trufant in the slot lined up against Benjamin. Safety Ricardo Allen, threatened by the thought of Cam Newton taking it to the end zone himself, sneaks up toward the line of scrimmage and is caught out of position — which gives Cam just enough time to throw a strike to Benjamin for the score.
Here, we see that Newton was able to freeze both linebackers and the play was over before either even had time to even recognize the play.
Across all positions, the Falcons struggle to stay disciplined and make it to the right spots. Their lack of an assertive pass rush forces their secondary to have to cover for longer periods of time and increases the opportunity for mistakes to be made.
8. Cincinnati Bengals
Teams 7–22 on the Ladder are the teams we need to see more from and the Bengals are the spearhead of that particular tier of teams. Through the first quarter of the season, they’ve proven that they’re better than the Jets, a true bubble team, but not better than the Steelers or Broncos, who’ve established themselves as elite teams. They beat the lowly Dolphins in Cincy on a short week in a game most know they should’ve won anyway. A.J. Green exposed the Dolphins proclivity to inefficiently cover wide receivers and torched them for 173-yards. He and Dalton appear as though they’ve found their stride and next week against a Cowboys defense with relatively no pass rush, they shouldn’t have trouble repeating their success.
Though an AFC Wildcard could take 10 wins, coupled with Pittsburgh looking like a shoe-in for the division, the team with the striped helmets ought to take care of business against lesser teams when they have the opportunity — i.e. Miami. They’ve got the Cowboys, Patriots, Browns, and Redskins before their bye week in Week 9. If they can go 2–2 or 3–1 during that stretch they’ll be in good shape with four inter-division games remaining.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Green Bay Packers
Both Green Bay and Philadelphia were on a bye week in Week 4. Both sit comfortably in the top-10 of The Ladder and will look to pick up wins which could prove to be crucial in the pursuit of a division crown in Week 5.
5. Seattle Seahawks
Since the outset of this season, the main criticism of the Seattle Seahawks has been the play of the offensive line and their inability to block in the running game and protect Russell Wilson. When the team traded longtime center Max Unger to New Orleans in March 2015, those who criticized the trade knew that with James Carpenter, Russell Okung, and J.R. Sweezy set to hit the free agent market, trading an offensive lineman without the requisite young talent waiting in the wings was risky. Until Jimmy Graham’s apparent resurrection over the last two weeks, it looked as though the ‘Hawks had shot themselves in the foot. Now, with back-to-back 100-yard games under his belt, Darrell Bevell has Frankenstein’ed Jimmy Graham and the Monster might be alive. A one handed catch with 5:13 to go in the first quarter was reminiscent of a circa-2012 version of the star tight-end.
With Graham coming along and Christine Michael at least becoming a competent running back, the burden may no longer rest solely on Russell Wilson the way it did a few weeks ago against the Rams where they struggled to get anything going offensively. The ill-fated 1pm eastern start didn’t appear to bother them, as they looked sharp early on both sides — holding the Jets to a field goal on defense and scoring a touchdown on just their second drive. With the defense essentially as sure as the sun rising in the morning, if the offense holds their end of the bargain they’ll continue rolling and take back the NFC West from the spiraling Cardinals.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
What the Steelers showed on Sunday night is exactly what you want to see from a team with Super Bowl aspirations. Just a total beatdown of the Kansas City Chiefs. This game was over in the first quarter. Mike Tomlin had the testicular fortitude to go for two after their first touchdown and it worked. Sammie Coates had a nice game working against Marcus Peters and was able to haul in a 47-yard completion on Pittsburgh’s first play from scrimmage — a sign of what was to come. The touchdown to Heyward-Bey was a beautifully designed play. With 3 wide-receivers lined up in a bunch formation, the Chiefs were only prepared to cover two of them.
Antonio Brown ran a shallow cross, with Sammie Coates and DHB both running go routes. Peters, who was lined up with Antonio Brown, allowed him to run underneath, which forced Steven Nelson to pick up Brown across the middle. All of the saftey help over the top shifted towards Coates who was already covered — leaving Heyward-Bey wide open for an easy score.
Now that Le’veon Bell has returned and all is right with the world, the Steelers will likely go back to destroying people on offense like they usually do. The Philly game is a blip sure, but right now it looks like Atlanta may be their only threat for the number one offense in the league by the end of the season.
3. New England Patriots
A game from hell for New England. Following a 90-yard screen to Julian Edelman on the first play from scrimmage (which was called back), they couldn’t muster any rhythm. Jacoby Brissett struggled, in part due to his injured thumb which affected his throws downfield, but also because of his inability to make quick reads, which gave Buffalo time to force pressure upon the pocket. Rob Gronkowski played 39 snaps after playing just 14 in Week 3, with Tom Brady set to return — the Gronk spike could be back before we know it. Jabaal Sheard and the defense have been stingy so far this season, but they couldn’t contain Tyrod Taylor in the pocket and allowed him to stretch out plays.
2. Minnesota Vikings
SKOL! SKOL! SKOL!
Another victory for Sammy and the short game. There was plenty to be satisfied with on the offensive side — Alex Boone looked much better at guard than he had in previous games. Of the Vikes goal line TDs, Boone’s blocking was responsible for nearly all of them. In addition to Boone’s performance, Jerrick McKinnon has put his juice on full display since taking over for former league MVP Adrian Peterson. McKinnon has an uncanny ability to dodge tacklers and find small spaces within the line and use his speed to break away from bunches of defenders. The way he ran, you’d never know that it was behind a patchwork offensive line. If he’s able to consistently make plays catching the ball out of the backfield, he could be really dangerous for this team going forward.
Quarterback wise, Sam Bradford appears to have a favorite target in Minnesota and his name is Kyle Rudolph. Throwing him touchdown passes in three straight weeks, Norv Turner has found ways to match Rudolph up against smaller corners in the red zone and exploit their size. Though it didn’t happen often, when Bradford did take chances he was effective — connecting on passes over 20-yards with three different receivers.
Defensively, Mike Zimmer is able to disguise his packages masterfully — never giving the offense the slightest inkling of what to expect. Whether it’s rushing inside linebackers past the guard or center through the A gap, or punishing tackles on the outside with the eruptions of Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen, this unit will carry them as far as they possibly can.
1. Denver Broncos
Despite losing quarterback Trevor Siemian to injury, yet again, the Broncos looked unflappable against the Buccaneers. A defense which creates more pressure than a shaken up soda bottle, this unit gets after it and makes life for the opposing QB utterly miserable. Von Miller, Derek Wolfe, Jared Crick, and the rest of this bunch have each had a hand in racking up sacks for one another. Shaq Barrett does a good job of setting the edge as an outside-linebacker — bursting toward his man from the snap and pushing him into running lanes — clogging it up and forcing the runner directly into a would-be tackler. Wade Phillips’ defense stacked the box early and often in the first quarter against Tampa and forced Winston to make plays with down and distance in Denver’s favor.
Their offensive line did not play well and they’ve got an injured QB to show for it. Paxton Lynch played well in the second half, though he may not have to worry about playing next week, as they expect Siemian to be able to go. The AFC West title should be no trouble for them and a possible first round bye could be within reach. The rest of the NFL is just waiting for a team to discover the formula for beating the Broncos.
