The MVP Narrative May Finally Be Swinging in James Harden’s Favor
2015 was a different time, man. Don Draper invented Coca-Cola (or something?), Trap Queen was only beginning to confound suburban parents, and food delivery was reserved for pizza places and Chinese restaurants.
In the NBA, LeBron had just “gone home” to form a new super team, the Warriors had yet to begin their historic run, the Hawks were legitimately awesome, and the Kings were truly horrible. But one thing that has remained is Harden’s divisive, foul-focused game had people denying his MVP merits. Meanwhile, Stephen Curry was beginning to ascend into advanced analytics Nirvana, which eventually saw him win his first MVP over the 2nd place Harden.
Steph’s case for the award was his extreme efficiency, leading the best team in basketball and the top offense in modern NBA history to an NBA title. Harden’s argument was that no one was more valuable to their team than he was, carrying a no-name (Dwight Howard…) squad to the 2nd seed in the West while leading the league in total points, minutes and win shares.
Harden had a legitimate case to be MVP that season, but Steph and the Warrior’s efficient play perfectly coincided with the growing popularity and availability of advanced analytics. The narrative essentially wrote itself, and “The Baby-Faced Assassin” would not be denied his place as the NBA’s golden boy. In the end, Steph’s wins were cited as the clear differentiator.
Whether we want to admit it or not, Steph won the award because the narrative demanded it. The 14–15 season was the year of the Warriors, and if we didn’t give Curry the award, we would’ve lived to regret it. Granted, when you look back at it, Harden’s MVP case is still clear, statistically, but he failed to match the popularity and momentum that Steph had. Curry and the Warriors won over our hearts, and thus, the award itself.
Fast forward two years, and the narrative once again slipped away from the even more deserving Harden. Russell Westbrook did what was then unthinkable, averaging a triple-double for an entire season for the Kevin “cupcake” Durant-less Thunder. Since the last time Harden was in the thick of this race, he had given fans and voters some rough playoff outings to consider. The question of whether the Beard’s game translated to the playoffs began to cast doubt over his 2016–17 regular season accomplishments, which were not unlike Westbrook’s.
Westbrook led the league in scoring, Harden led the league in assists, Westbrook had more rebounds, but Harden was more efficient. What eventually won out was Westbrook’s moments of brilliance, and the almighty triple-double.
Ultimately, the narrative of Westbrook staying to save the Thunder while Durant left to join the already dominant Warriors was the nail in the coffin for Harden. But it left Harden fans (are there Harden fans?) wondering why he couldn’t win in 2017 based on Steph’s argument in 2015. James Harden lost the award in 2015 because his efficiency and team wins couldn’t match Steph’s. This time, the leader of the third seed Rockets, and playing a much more efficient brand of basketball in D’antoni’s new scheme, he was going to lose the award to the 6th seeded, advanced stat deviant, Westbrook? Harden himself expressed confusion over the moving target and what truly went into measuring “Value”.
Well, last season, Harden decided to overwhelm voters and went on a redemption tour for the ages, pacing the NBA in scoring while creating an iso-driven offense alongside Chris Paul, Mike D’Antoni and number one seeded Rockets. Darryl Morey’s team was built for one purpose: to beat the Warriors, with or without the narrative. It was boring, robotic, but effective AF. So effective that they won Harden his elusive MVP while pushing the KD-led Warriors to the brink in the Western Conference Finals.
Had it not been for a Chris Paul hamstring injury and historic 27-straight missed three-pointer collapse, the Rockets might have achieved a championship in the Warriors Era. Houston’s consolation prize would have to be Harden’s MVP trophy and the moral victory of pushing the eventual champions to seven games.
And with that, you’re probably thinking: Well, Harden won the award… So didn’t he win the narrative? How is it that he is only now winning the MVP narrative one season removed from actually winning MVP?
Yes, he won the award, but in truth, most hated more than ever to give Harden the MVP award in 2018. He played a boring, iso-driven, not-so-sexy brand of basketball that made Spurs fans spin in their Izod, half-zip pullovers. It was Leo winning the Oscar for The Revenant instead of… well, almost any other movie he’s been in. Most voters almost punished Harden in narrative for what they eventually rewarded him for in votes: losing the MVP to Westbrook the season before.
Basketball Twitter and media members found Houston and Harden to be gimmicky and dull, and they were craving a feel-good narrative to emerge mid-season. Finally, just before the all-star break, it happened. Boogie Cousins tore his Achilles, and, as bad as it sounds, the long-awaited narrative began to unfold. Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans exploded into a fast-paced brand of basketball that catapulted Davis into the MVP conversation.
Most wondered if the Pelicans could maintain a winning pace, but instead they performed even better with a combination of Rajon Rondo, Davis, Niko Mirotic, and Alvin Gentry’s unleashed offense. This was what people had been waiting for. The only problem was the Pelicans were likely not going to win enough games to put Davis in the conversation ahead of the pace-setting Rockets. After a furious rally, they managed to tie for fourth in the Western Conference, but the gap between Davis and Harden (and more importantly, the Rockets and Pelicans) had grown too wide.
Voters reluctantly conceded that Harden was more deserving, but there was a distinct feeling that Davis had won the narrative. He finally completed a mostly healthy season while playing to his truest potential on a team that had suffered a major injury to one of its best players. Not only did this team suffer that catastrophic loss, but they outplayed their projection the rest of the way and even carried that momentum to a first round sweep of the Portland Trailblazers. Harden won the award, but only because Davis’ rally was too little too late.
It wouldn’t be hard to argue that James Harden has never been the golden boy of the league. He’s never captured the MVP narrative that made KD, Steph, and Russ fan-favorites in their respective award-winning campaigns. In fact, in the one season that he won the award, AD stole his rightful place in the conversation regarding the best player in the NBA, leaving Harden to be reluctantly chosen as the “most deserving” of the MVP award, rather than the clear cut Most Valuable Player.
But with his recent run of play — which began after Chris Paul went down with what could end up being a months worth of missed games — wherein he scored 40 points or more in five straight games (something only Iverson, Jordan, and Kobe have ever done) and managed to single-handedly wreck the Warriors, Harden has, for the first time ever, begun to win the NBA’s MVP narrative.
Harden is leading the league in scoring and minutes per game, while posting the second most efficient shooting season (by 3pt % and Effective FG %) of his career — oh and he’s shooting 2.4 more threes per game this season than ever before in his career. But his statistical case is overshadowed by the fact that the Rockets have climbed the standings after a slow start and now sit tied for 4th in the Western Conference standings. And their climb is even further overshadowed by the fact that people are actually enjoying watching the Rockets and Harden during this run — look no further than the lefty ending Jamal Murray’s career earlier this week.
Now don’t get me wrong, Harden still holds some blame for the Rockets slow start, and Giannis still has a strong case for his consistency, and his team’s place in the standings. But make no mistake, Harden’s winner over the Warriors in OT (after a horrendous officiating mistake almost ruined the game) was an MVP moment — look no further than the fact that he became the betting favorite to win the award with that performance. It was the kind of explosion that is felt at the end of the season, when people are splitting hairs between first and second.
It’s that kind of MVP performance that begins to spin an MVP narrative, and for Harden, the leagues reigning most valuable player, it may be the first time he’s ever truly had the feel-good story on his side.
