Trump’s Obamacare Dilemma
The juxtaposition of 18 million people losing insurance with “insurance for everybody” leaves Trump in a precarious situation entering his presidency.
As the time nears for Obamacare’s likely repeal under President-elect Trump, the nerves of Democrats and those insured under the law heighten. Rallies were held around the country this past weekend in support of the law and in opposition to its repeal. To make the situation even more difficult to read, Mr. Trump said that the new healthcare law that he would pass while in office, would include: “insurance for everybody”. Leaving everyone with many more questions than answers as the country nears the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States.
One of the many questions is how does Trump plan to reconcile the assumption that people would lose insurance under an Obamacare repeal. Without a viable replacement, yet, Trump has placed himself in a difficult situation. That was before we really had any sort of idea about the effect that an Obamacare repeal would have.
That was until this week when the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released a report that studied the potential impacts that a partial Obamacare repeal would cause. This is of course assuming that the repeal is somewhat like the 2015 repeal measure Republicans proposed. Since Trump and fellow Republicans haven’t agreed upon a formal replacement it has become difficult to really balance the Congressional Budget Office’s report and Trump’s plan that, according to his own words, will include “insurance for everybody”.
CBO: “Eliminating the mandate penalties and the subsidies while retaining the market reforms would destabilize the nongroup market, and the effect would worsen over time”.
The report states that 18 million people would lose health insurance within the first year, if Republicans use their previous plans to repeal the health care law. A 2026 estimate found that 32 million people would be without coverage with costs rising.
Analyzing a 2015 repeal plan isn’t perfect by any measure. However, it does put numbers to some very real concerns that individuals under the Affordable Care Act have. Trump placed himself in an incredibly difficult situation by making the Obamacare replacement, that doesn’t exist as of yet, sound as if its better than the current situation. It didn’t help the president-elect that shortly after his “insurance for everybody” quote the numbers come out about what will happen if repeal and replace is simply a repeal.
Facing historically low approval ratings, CNN/ORC, ABC News/Washington Post and Monmouth University, Trump will be expected to return results fast. Results that are thorough and lasting. Saying that insurance for everyone will be a reality under his presidency is an incredibly optimistic vision. It’s a vision that almost everyone would agree is a good one. The problem is it’s a vision without any solid plan behind it. There’s only one good outcome for Trump in the repeal of Obamacare: replacing it with something better. Something that insures just as many, if not more, Americans at a lower cost while improving the marketplace exponentially.
These massive expectations are more of what Trump discusses most aspects of his policies in: generalities and the presumption that many will forget if it doesn’t happen. Saying that the Obamacare replacement will provide “insurance for everybody” places huge expectations on an unsure plan. A plan that has yet to be made finalized and made public. Republicans have promised a better Obamacare alternative. One that will provide more Americans insurance at a lower cost than Obamacare. If achieved, Trump’s legacy could go from lofty theoretical expectations to one of distinctive, real results. If failed, we’ll remember “insurance for everybody” as a large promise not delivered on that will have harmful implications for those who will lose insurance should Republicans simply repeal without replacing.
