UEFA Champions League Confidence Rankings

Before round of 16 kicks off, how are the teams shaping up?

Last year was a dud. With the exception of EPL, the other top-5 leagues were decided by the half-way point. Bayern, PSG and Juventus ran away with their respective leagues. And even though Barca ended up winning the league by a measly 1 point, they had stretched the lead out to 12 points over Real Madrid at one point. Even the Champions League except for a couple of matchups (Juventus vs. Bayern and Barcelona vs. Atletico) failed to quench our thirst for quality football. Thank God for Leicester City’s once in 1000 years run to save what was, for the most part, a sluggish soccer season.

But this season? Oh, this season is incredible. The top three leagues are still up for grabs (and this time Premier League is playing the foil because of Conte’s masterful turnaround of Chelsea). Bayern lead the Bundesliga (which basically gets wrapped up within the first month of the season) only by four points over RB Leipzig(!!!!), Monaco lead both PSG and OGC Nice (Balotelli for life!) by three points and Real have one point cushion over Barcelona and four points over Sevilla (although Madrid do have two games in hand).

So before the knockout stages of the Champions League kicks off, let’s check on the mood of the remaining 16 gladiators. Here are my UCL Knockout Confidence Rankings:

16. Leicester City

Well, it was fun while it lasted — The most unexpected champions in sports history. They had 11 players having out of body experiences and one manager spanking all his counterparts for 38 straight league games. They won the title and I loved it. The Foxes showed that even in the current “More money = More success” era you can win it all by just being smart and playing with a lot of heart.

But you could see their downfall coming from 1198 miles away. Their best player (Kante) left, the other top two players got new (hefty) contracts (and we all know how big contracts affect players who overachieve for one season) and every one figured out their cute little system. So yeah, everything that could go wrong, did go wrong and now they are struggling to fend off relegation. And if they do get relegated I’ll never forgive the football Gods. They can’t be this cruel (well, they’ve been screwing with my Clippers for the past six years, so what do I know).

15. Bayer Leverkusen

They are 10th in the league with a negative goal difference, and their “star” striker has scored only once since October 1st. The high-point of their season has been being associated with Usain Bolt as one of the teams who could sign him. So yeah, they are pretty much cooked.

14. Porto

13. Benfica

Porto has allowed the least number of goals (11) of all the remaining participants while Benfica is tied with Bayern for the second (12 each) spot. Both of these teams are oozing with young players with scouts of other teams lining up like hungry dogs on their doorsteps to sway some of those away from the two teams.

And here’s the thing, apart from Bayer and Leicester all the other teams have a legitimate shot at winning their respective ties. You could envision a world in which the Portuguese giants conjure up a defensive plan to keep out Juventus and Dortmund at the bay. Both Porto and Benfica scarred the pants off Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals the last two years (Porto ran them out on their home ground, won the first leg 3–1 before being thumped 6–1 in the return leg and Benfica last year ended up losing with an aggregate score of 3–2), and their opponents are nowhere near the quality of Bayern. So if we end up with a Portuguese side or two in the quarterfinals, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

12. Arsenal

At some point, you just have to pour one out for Arsenal’s Champions League ambitions. They are like the Sean Bean of football. No matter what they do, they’ll never get through the round of 16 of UCL. Their last six pre-quarter finals opponents have been Barcelona, Monaco, Bayern, Bayern, Milan (when they were still good), Barcelona and this year Bayern again (the last time they managed to survive the first knockout gauntlet was in the 2009–10 campaign where they were gobbled up by Barcelona in the quarter-finals).

For the millionth year in a row, the lack of a quality striker is evident, and it seems like enough time has passed to officially declare that Mesut Ozil will never be able to recapture the magic of his Madrid days (boy I miss those days). Plus, it never helps when your manager has outstayed his welcome by 2–3 years. Wenger’s contract is up this summer and as the end draws nearer, it’s getting uglier and uglier day by day.

The manager who revolutionized the stuck-in-the-past Premier League by focusing on dietary and fitness practices, efficient transfers and a new brand of attacking football, is now finding it difficult to cope with the rapidly evolving league. Funny how things play out.

11. Dortmund

This should get more attention but isn’t: Dortmund is what happens when your club constantly churns out one quality player after another but doesn’t have the historical background (a la Real, Barcelona, Bayern) or too much moolah to throw around (Chelsea, Man City, any of the thousand Chinese clubs). The club will have a 3–5 years period where they’ll take everyone by storm before the “big” clubs circle like sharks to disassemble the perfect machinery that was put together part by part. There will be a time when every player they dig out of the dirt won’t be made of gold, and all the current players (and manager too) will move on to greener pastures. That is the breaking point. Dortmund is at the breaking point (and not far behind is Atletico Madrid).

Sitting 4th in the league, they are closer to the 9th placed Bayer than they are to the second placed RB Leipzig. Rues misses his usual 1–2 months every season due to injury, Gotze looks like a ghost of himself ever since he returned from Bayern (another reason why you should never move to a big club in your developing years. Looking at you Anthony Martial), their best player (Aubameyang) might be headed out the door this summer and clubs are already eyeing out for their most talented prospect (Pulisic).

There’s enough pace and creativity in the attack to breach the Benfica fortress and Westfalenstadion is still the most intimidating stadium to play an away leg in. But all this feels inconsequential as we near the end of one of the most fun, vibrant and enjoyable era in European football history.

10. Manchester City

So are we confident that Pep Guardiola’s system can work outside of Barcelona and on a team not having Iniesta and Messi? Sure, he did win Bundesliga in each of his three years in-charge of the team (including two domestic doubles), but that was in a league where they robbed their closest competitor of their most prized asset every summer. His team was eviscerated in their first two Champions League semi-finals appearances and Simeone out-coached him in his third and final semi-final appearance with Bayern.

His performance this season hasn’t been too promising either. After a high-flying start, they have been pegged back by injuries, and appalling defensive performances. It might be time to stop the John Stones hype train (he is on the verge of joining the long list of prospects that English supporters tricked themselves into believing would be the best in the world) and Otamendi is poor man’s Sergio Ramos at best. Not the kind of pairing you would go to war with against the devastating Monaco’s attacking line.

Not helping the matters is the dressing room drama over Joe Hart (who quickly made way for Claudio Bravo and boy we know did that turn out), Yaya Toure (it’s hilarious that Yaya twice was deemed unworthy by Pep to be a regular first team starter. You can almost imagine Pep yelling at him every day at the training: “You’re not the chosen one” ) and then over probably the greatest City player ever. Aguero will soon join the ranks of strikers (Zlatan, Eto’o and Mandzukic) that Pep booted out… and what did you say, Mourinho is a legend killer?

9. Paris Saint Germain

You know what? They should be higher in this ranking. When they go toe to toe with Barcelona on Tuesday, they’ll have the second best player on the pitch in Edinson Cavani, they have won 10 of the 11 games played this year, Barcelona have not been firing at Barcelona-esque rate while they will be without Mascherano, Turan and Aleix Vidal (that was horrible!), with Iniesta joining them after a spell on the sideline. Perfect time to catch one of the three best clubs in the world.

But then I looked at Unai Emery’s record against Barcelona, and I wanted to take back everything I said about PSG in the last paragraph. In his 23 meetings with the Catalan giants, he has won only once! ONLY ONCE! Yes, he didn’t have the talent that he has at his disposal in the French Capital, but it wasn’t like he was coaching bottom-dwellers. His Valencia team finished third in the league thrice in his seven years of stay there and he guided Sevilla to three consecutive Europa League victories.

Emery was brought in to improve upon Laurent Blanc’s lack of European success (Blanc won the domestic title in each of his three years in charge of PSG). Six months later, they are second in the league and facing Barcelona for the third time in the last five years. Something tells me that somewhere in France, Blanc will be watching Tuesday’s matchup against Barcelona with a wide grin on his face.

8. Atletico Madrid

There are two ways to win any sports game: either through skill or via will. Atletico mastered the craft of the later often pinning the opponent to submission just because they wanted the game more. They won La Liga, Copa del Ray, Supercopa de Espana, UEFA Europa League and UEFA Super Cup since Simeone took over. They would’ve been Champions of the Europe had Ramos not stepped down from the heaven and headed in (probably) the most important goal in Real Madrid history (plus Costa, who was arguably their most important player, played only 8 minutes before being subbed off due to injury).

They are at the same stage where Dortmund was in Klopp’s last season and face the exact same problems as Dortmund (excellent culture, a good crop of young players but can’t keep them and their coach most likely will be on the way out) but rank higher because of they:

a. (still) Have one of the best coaches in the world

b. Play Bayer Leverkusen who are not very good.

c. Feature Antoine Griezmann, a top five attacking player in the world

Simeone experimented with Koke in the center instead of his natural position out-wide to robust the often stale attack but ended up leaking out goals at a not-so-Atletico rate. He has reverted to the old formation in recent matches to establish that defensive authority again. And with La Liga out of reach expect Simeone to throw the kitchen sink at every opponent he faces in the knockout stages. But you wonder whether a team built on will rather skill, will be able to will itself to the last missing silverware in the Simeone era.

7. Sevilla

This is why I don’t like a PSG team coached by Emery going against Barcelona. Emery’s side finished with 52 points in the 2015–16 season, finishing 7th (and they were eighth points behind the sixth placed Celta Vigo). Under Jorge Sampaoli, who arrived from South America with his high octane, fluid offense, they have already amassed 46 points in 16 fewer games. They are just two points behind FC Barcelona for the second position. Yes, there have been few changes in the squad, with the acquisition of Samir Nasri on loan from ManCity being the biggest, but it’s not like he was handed an uber-loaded squad.

As a matter of fact, the financial gap between Sevilla and the “Big 3” of Spain has increased this season. In the 2015–16 season the difference in total market value of Sevilla and Atletico Madrid, the last non-Real and Barcelona club to win the league was about £130 million. This season that has ballooned to over £220 million. They don’t have a Ronaldo or Bale or Messi or Suarez (or a Neymar, a Ramos, a Modric, an Iniesta) but they do have a collection of players who fit nicely into Sampaoli’s attacking philosophy. Sure they are not solid enough defensively to scare some of the clubs ranked ahead of them (they have hemorrhaged 28 goals in the league so far, second worst in the top seven ranked teams) but they took Barcelona to the brink, in their 2–1 loss early in the season and recently ended Real’s 40 games unbeaten run. With a place in the quarterfinals almost assured, it’ll be intriguing to see how far this fun ride goes.

6. Napoli

Trust me when I say this, I’m nervous. Napoli is the exact kind of team that I didn’t want my Real to face. They fit the peak Dortmund mold — free flowing offensively, with pace on the wings and a cerebral magician in the form of Hamsik in the midfield. They like to load up on the left side of the field with the threesome of Ghoulam, Hamsik and Insigne playing quick, incisive passes to carve up the opposition.

Dries Mertens is the hottest striker in Europe right now, as he has scored 13 goals in his last eight outings (gulp!). On top of that, they have been unbeaten in their last thirteen games and have lost the fewest number of games in Serie A.

The reason they are no higher than 6 is that for all their offensive power, they didn’t exactly set the group stage on fire, scoring just 11 goals (4 of which came in the game against Benfica) while conceding 8. On defense, Napoli likes to press high up in the opposition’s half, but once you circumvent the initial press, there are acres of space between the midfielders and defenders for the opposition to exploit. They have conceded the most goals (26 which is tied with Atalanta) of all the teams in the top five of Serie A.

History is not on their side too as they have been past the round of 16 only once in the club history, all the way back in ’76–77 and Real Madrid have won more Champions League (11) than Napoli has appearances in it (7). And when you are facing a club like Real, you do need a bit of history on your side.

5. Juventus

Sometimes you just wonder what’s up with the Old Lady. They are clearly head and shoulders above their competition in Serie A but not good enough for the top European competition. They have won five straight league titles and two marquee signings last summer were directly from their rivals (Higuain from Napoli and Pjanic from Roma), so much for keeping the spirit of the competition alive.

Their midfield isn’t as good when they slithered their way into the final couple of years ago. But they allowed only two goals during the group stage, tied with Atletico Madrid for the best mark of all the round-of-16 teams. There’s enough juice in the new “Five Star” formation to get past the stifling Porto defense, but there bench lacks quality players that the top three sides can boast about. A semi-final appearance seems like the best possible outcome, and you just have to ask for how long will Juve be content with a “just good enough” squad.

By the way, congratulations Juventus fans on your sixth straight title. Hope you enjoy the sweet taste of winning a watered down league.

4. Monaco

Welcome to Monaco Island, City fans. You thought you were handed out an easy draw back in December? Well, let me just show you around the island. On Monaco Island, players score for fun. We have already netted 101 goals. If that didn’t get through your cranium, hear it out again 101 GOALS! And we are still in February! This island features, Radamel Falcao who is up to 20 goals this season and is scoring a goal every 58 minutes. We have Bernardo Silva, Tiemoue Bakayoko, Kylian Mbappe and Thomas Lemar, all superstars in the making. And unlike you, we can play both sides of the field thanks to Kamil Glik, Tiemoue Bakayoko and Benjamin Mendy.

Our manager, Leonardo Jardim, also doesn’t complain when the players that fit his mold aren’t bought or are sold by the club. Instead he develops young talent and gives them the opportunity to shine. He can also change his tactics based on the personnel at hand as evident by his switch from a counterattack-heavy team to the whirlwind offense that has taken over Ligue 1. Oh, by the way, we dominated Spurs twice in the group stage while they were unbeaten in the league.

We hope you enjoy your stay at the “easy” Monaco Islands.

3. Bayern Munich

Arsenal supporters pay attention, Bayern is having their share of problems. The counter-attacking style of football introduced by Carlo is clearly not suiting top stars like Muller and Vidal. There’s been a dip in the intensity and they were trailing in Bundesliga before RB Leipzig (!!!) was ravished by injuries. Renato Sanches, after setting the latter stages of Euro 2016 on fire has not exactly convinced the Bayern faithful of his abundant talent.

Criticism of Jerome Boateng in November by the CEO of the club, asking him to focus more on the on-pitch activities and Philip Lahm’s timing of the announcement of his retirement says it’s not all rosy in the German capital. I get it you are only facing Arsenal, but at least wait till you have throttled them 3–0 or 4–1 before making the announcement.

But the reason the top three teams are where they are is that they have the best players in the world at every position and when they are firing on all cylinders, nobody can withstand the oncoming onslaught (and it happens more often than not).

Sorry Arsenal fans if I got your hopes up.

Moving on.

2. Barcelona

Last year only 12 players started in one-third of Barca’s league games, this year there are 17. After Atletico had choked a weary Catalan team to submission in the quarter-finals, Enrique added depth to keep the stars fresh when the games start meaning a bit more. And that’s the price you pay when Andre Gomes, Denis Suarez and Arda Turan are manning the midfield as opposed to Iniesta and Busquets.

Given his recent injuries and age, you feel like this could be the last season when Iniesta is still on top of his game. People also underestimated the impact Dani Alves had on the club. His replacements have neither provided the threat on offense nor stability in the back. Neymar’s form in front of the goal is also concerning. He’s averaging less than a goal every three matches. Not the kind of form you expect from a player who Pele thinks is better than Ronaldo in every aspect except for headers.

But let me lend you in on a secret.

They have Lionel:

Freaking:

Messi:

Also, the guy named Suarez is pretty good too (he’s averaging a goal every 70 minutes. Amazing I would say).

1. Real Madrid

Now before you start pelting me with stones for a homer pick let me explain why they are perched at the top:

a. Zizou has tried the same tactic of resting and rotating players (16 players have started at least one-third of La Liga games this season), albeit with better results. They have one more game than Barca while playing two fewer games.

b. They lead the La Liga with a single point (again, have two games in hand).

c. The team has missed several key players for significant time due to injuries including to Gareth Bale (last played in November) who is arguably one of the ten best players in the world.

d. This season they are not blowing teams out (although they are still capable of that), which is in part due to the injury bug. But also because of a sense of stability that Zidane has established. During their 40 game win streak, they were no blowing teams out of the park, just kept on playing smart and efficient football (and that streak would’ve continued had he not flirted with the 3–5–2 formation against Sevilla).

There are still flaws to be rectified. His decision of sticking with a very out of form Benzema is the most obvious one. A very easy solution could be to start Morata in his place but if wants to catch the opposition by surprise, just give the central striker role to Ronaldo. And with Bale getting back in shape, Ronaldo flanked with Vasquez/Rodriquez gives them the best shot of exploiting the space in the wings without giving up their defensive identity.

Napoli will offer a tougher challenge than the usual opponents that Real faces at this stage of the competition and how the French manager evades the landmines in the first knockout stage will define the path that Real takes on their journey to defend their crown.

I’m cautiously optimistic, a strange feeling when it comes to the Men in White, especially in such an early stage of a competition where at least a semi-final place is the norm. But maybe when you are trying to become the first club in the Champions League era to repeat as champions, the road less taken is the way to go.

Hala Madrid!