Week 10 NFL Picks
I thought Kevin Clark made a great point in his weekly pick column: this is an important week for the NFL. With the election over and a number of great match-ups on the docket, the league needs to see ratings go up. If they do, we’ll know it was extenuating circumstances that dropped viewership, and league officials can let out a sigh of relief. If not, the NFL has a real problem on its hands, and it would need to address the concerns quickly. But for now, let’s not worry. We’ve got a lot of intriguing games to pick. As always, the home team is in all-caps.
Kansas City over CAROLINA (-3), 1:00 ET, 11/13.
There isn’t much the Panthers do better than the Chiefs. The one area where they have an advantage is quarterback, and Cam Newton may just be enough to lead his team past a hobbled Alex Smith. It’s just hard to pick a team when they have an advantage in just one area of the game. It may be ugly, but I think Kansas City will pull this one out.
Kansas City 20, Carolina 17
Houston over JACKSONVILLE (-2), 1:00 ET, 11/13.
In a week of really good match-ups, this game sticks out for it’s un-watchability. No one wants to watch Brock Osweiler blunder his team between the twenties only to settle for a field goal. No one wants to watch Blake Bortles struggle through another first half and put up numbers when his team is already out of it. Houston will win, but I doubt it will be impressive.
Houston 23, Jacksonville 20
Green Bay (-3) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET, 11/13.
How on earth did the Packers lose to the freaking Colts at Lambeau? What happened to this team? Weren’t they one unlucky break from making the Super Bowl two seasons ago? Now they’re losing to crappy teams in their hallowed home stadium. I’m looking for a bounce back against an all-around mediocre Titans team this week, but I’m not overly confident.
Green Bay 24, Tennessee 21
Los Angeles over NY JETS (-1.5), 1:00 ET, 11/13.
Bryce Petty and Case Keenum are the starting quarterbacks for this game. My God. Jeff Fisher, if you have a shred of decency, let Jared Goff play. It’s the only thing that will add intrigue to this meaningless contest. How bad must Goff be that he can’t beat out Keenum for a job that the organization basically threw at him by trading up to draft him number one overall? Anyway, it’s possible that Todd Gurley could have a late break-out game and lead Los Angeles to the win.
Los Angeles 17, New York 14
WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Minnesota, 1:00 ET, 11/13.
Minnesota can’t do anything offensively because they can’t block. Sam Bradford only resembles an above-average quarterback when he’s being protected. The key to Minnesota’s offense the last nine years (the run game) has been deflated by the offensive line and the loss of Adrian Peterson. And that lack of offensive production has had an effect on the defense, which doesn’t resemble the top-ranked unit from earlier this year. I don’t expect much to change against a Redskins team that can at least pick up yardage through the air.
Washington 26, Minnesota 20
TAMPA BAY over Chicago (-2.5), 1:00 ET, 11/13.
I think Jameis Winston can break out of his funk for at least one game to torch the Bears. Doug Martin is back to hold down the running game for Tampa, and Mike Evans has been as deadly as ever. With a full compliment of weapons, I like the Bucs to dispatch the Bears.
Tampa Bay 28, Chicago 21
Denver over NEW ORLEANS (-3), 1:00 ET, 11/13.
Everyone’s down on Denver, and believe me, no one has enjoyed it more than me. But here’s what I think everyone is missing when they pick New Orleans in this one; the Broncos’ defense has yielded yardage to the run game and pass-catching backs against their linebackers. New Orleans gets its offensive production from downfield throwsto wide receivers, which Denver’s swarming secondary still shuts down. I see this week as a big performance for Denver’s defense.
Denver 20, New Orleans 17
PHILADELPHIA over Atlanta (-1), 1:00 ET, 11/13.
With Philadelphia, predicting is a crapshoot. You don’t know which team you’re going to get. You could get the dominant defense and capable offense from wins over Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Or you can get the uneven performances with little offensive production like we saw in New York last week. At home, I’m going to bet on the Eagles giving this proficient Falcons’ offense their toughest test since Seattle.
Philadelphia 27, Atlanta 24
SAN DIEGO (-4) over Miami, 4:05 ET, 11/13.
Despite a weak start, San Diego is now a dark horse playoff contender. Melvin Gordon is dominating on the ground, Philip Rivers is as precise as ever, and the defense has more playmakers than they have in years. It’s fair to wonder whether it will be enough to stop Jay Ajayi and his strong running, but I ‘ll take a bunch of good players over one.
San Diego 28, Miami 23
ARIZONA (-14) over San Francisco, 4:25 ET, 11/13.
We already saw how this goes when the Cards strangled the 49ers on Thursday Night Football a few weeks back. That was back when we still thought Arizona could potentially make a run at the Super Bowl; we know better now. Still, Arizona is better than San Francisco, and by a pretty fair margin. I don’t see any reason why San Fran should become a passable team now.
Arizona 30, San Francisco 17
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) over Dallas, 4:25 ET, 11/13.
It’s just hard for me to believe that a team led by two rookies could go 15–1. It seems a little far-fetched. Plus, this is usually when Big Ben plays a great game; coming off injury and a poor performance last week. Roethlisberger is rarely held down for long, and I see him having a classic game this week to get this offense on track. Those young guys for Dallas have to show some growing pains at some point.
Pittsburgh 31, Dallas 27
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over Seattle, 8:30 ET, 11/13.
This game does worry me as a Patriots fan. Brady hasn’t faced a legitimately good team since his return, and the Seahawks have a knack for pulling out prime time games. However, there’s a lot going New England’s way here. Seattle’s defense is banged up, Russell Wilson and Christine Michael are hobbled, the Seattle offensive line is floundering, they’re coming off a short week, traveling from West to East Coast to play a team coming off a bye. All that is a little too much for me to pick against New England.
New England 27, Seattle 24
MONDAY NIGHT
Cincinnati (-1) over NY GIANTS, 8:30 ET, 11/14.
Cincinnati needs to go on a run if they want to make the playoffs. Because of the tie on their record, they’ll have to do a little extra to make it there, so it must start now. Giovani Bernard has been playing really well the last few games, and A.J. Green is always liable to break a defense. I have confidence in this pick for two reasons: 1) The Bengals are always destined to make the playoffs and lose in the first round, and 2) Eli Manning is always good for a stinker after a good performance.
Cincinnati 27, New York 23
Last Week: 7–5
Season: 71–50–1
