Week 16 NFL Picks
GREEN BAY (-6.5) over Minnesota
The Packers are really dangerous right now; they’ve won four straight games and Aaron Rodgers is back to playing at his top-notch level. However, three of those games came against the Eagles, Texans, and Bears, teams that just aren’t very good. They’re playing another crumbling team this week in the Vikings, so let’s keep that schedule in mind when we start to proclaim a guy who let his team lose four straight games as MVP.
Green Bay 27, Minnesota 17
Washington (-3) over CHICAGO
I picked Washington last week, but it didn’t come as too much of a surprise when they threw away their chance to claim the NFC’s final wild card spot in a dismal performance at home against Carolina on Monday night. Washington has made a habit of disappointing its fan base when met with a reason for excitement. They still have a chance at that spot, but they need a win against the surprisingly frisky Bears. Washington can’t take this game for granted, and I don’t think they will.
Washington 30, Chicago 26
NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) over NY Jets
I don’t know about the -16.5 line, especially when the Jets nearly beat the Pats just a few weeks ago. However, since that game these teams have gone in opposite directions, with the Jets floundering under the new leadership of QB Bryce Petty and New England ascending, especially defensively. It seemed as though the Jets’ offensive line gave up last week and let Petty get killed as a protest for Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is a simultaneously hilarious and horrifying subplot to the train wreck that is the Jets’ season. This is a pretty easy pick.
New England 27, New York 17
BUFFALO (-3.5) over Miami
It sounds weird to say, but if Ryan Tannehill were playing, I would probably pick Miami. Miami is the better team, but I just can’t pick Matt Moore to go in and earn a playoff-clinching win in Buffalo. I also think that Rex Ryan, a player’s coach, will get good effort from his players in what will probably be his last home game as Buffalo’s head coach. That final AFC Wild Card spot is going to be very interesting these last two weeks…
Buffalo 23, Miami 21
Tennessee (-5) over JACKSONVILLE
…and Tennessee is one of the many teams that could earn a tie in that spot with a win and a Dolphins loss. Tennessee is the preferred choice for many to earn the AFC South’s playoff spot, mainly because they can actually be an exciting team occasionally (as opposed to the Texans who have mind-numbingly inept and boring). It’s been fun to watch Marcus Mariota grow as a young quarterback, Demarco Murray has had a bounce-back season at running back, and the defense is entertainingly inconsistent. The Titans should handle this game, but keep in mind that it’s very common for young teams to lose when met with the chance to earn an important victory.
Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 20
San Diego (-5.5) over CLEVELAND
I’m sorry Cleveland fans; it seems fairly likely that your team will go 0–16. It’s definitely happening if Cleveland drops this San Diego game, because they’re not taking down Pittsburgh on the road. The Chargers have lost three straight games, but it’s nice to have the Browns there for an easy win to get back on track. Despite Philip Rivers’ struggles, I don’t think he’ll let this one get away.
San Diego 27, Cleveland 20
Atlanta (-2.5) over CAROLINA
Atlanta is better, but they’re also shaky; you don’t know for sure which version of the team is going to show up. At their best, they are a prolific offense that can score and move the ball in multiple ways, with a defense that can make important plays. At worst, the offense can be turnover-prone and the defense can’t stop anyone. I’m predicting them to perform somewhere between those levels, and earn an important win over a division rival.
Atlanta 30, Carolina 27
OAKLAND (-3.5) over Indianapolis
Indy looked really good last week, but that was probably only because they were playing the Vikings, who are self-destructing. The Raiders have been noticeably lacking in offensive production the last two weeks, but that might matter a lot more against the Broncos next week. There’s always the possibility of Andrew Luck going off and ripping the Oakland defense to shreds, but with a shot at the one seed on the line for Oakland, I’m going to roll with the Raiders.
Oakland 28, Indianapolis 27.
Tampa Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay really played well against Dallas on Sunday night, and I’m still convinced that they’re a good team and can make the playoffs. If they have postseason aspirations, this is a game they need to win. Jameis Winston has taken his team this far on his youthful exuberance, leadership, and big playmaking ability, and I think he’ll out-gun Drew Brees with the playoffs on the line. Last time Brees played the Bucs, in Week 14, he threw 0 TD and 3 INT.
Tampa Bay 27, New Orleans 24
LOS ANGELES (-3.5) over San Francisco
What a pointless game. Both of these teams have a ton of work to do to revamp their rosters, coaching staffs, and front offices. They’re two of the league’s most inept and dysfunctional franchises, featuring quarterback controversies, questionable coaching decisions, and misuse of what little talent they have. Both are a cautionary tale for future organizations and their decision-makers. I guess I’ll take the Rams because they’re at home and have a slightly better defense.
Los Angeles 20, San Francisco 17
SEATTLE (-8.5) over Arizona
Yes, Seattle has been inconsistent, especially offensively. Yes, Russell Wilson has put up numbers that the Ringer’s Danny Kelly described as “more like Teddy Bridgewater’s 2015 season than anyone in Seattle wants to admit.” The offensive line has struggled to protect Wilson or generate enough push to sustain a successful running game. I don’t know if these issues will ultimately take the Seahawks out of Super Bowl contention, but I’m fairly certain that they can beat the Cardinals even if the bad version of the team shows up.
Seattle 28, Arizona 20
HOUSTON (-1) over Cincinnati
Tom Savage replaced Brock Osweiler as the Texans’ quarterback last week and led them to a comeback win over Jacksonville. Unlike Osweiler, it seemed like Savage could actually make plays at times, which will be useful in unlocking some of Houston’s offensive potential. We’ll see if Savage can build a rapport with DeAndre Hopkins; if he can, the Texans will be more dangerous than we thought heading into the playoffs.
Houston 24, Cincinnati 20
CHRISTMAS DAY
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) over Baltimore
Big, big, BIG game. This one should be a bloodbath. Hell, it’s a bloodbath between these two when there’s nothing on the line. Now they’re playing in Week 16 with a trip to the playoffs at stake. The key to this game will be Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell. He’s had some incredible games this season, including 298 total yards from scrimmage in Week 14, but Baltimore held him to 32 yards on 14 attempts in their Week 9 match-up. Baltimore has the league’s best run defense, and the Steelers will have to overcome that to create the offensive balance necessary to win.
Pittsburgh 26, Baltimore 24
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over Denver
We saw how this played out in Week 12; the Chiefs took down the Broncos in Denver at a time when the Broncos’ offense (and overall team) was playing a lot better than it is now. Now the Chiefs have them at home, Denver is coming off a 3-point performance against New England that created locker room conflict, and the entire team and fan base are down on themselves. Despite a heartbreaking loss to the Titans a week ago, I see these as great circumstances for a Chiefs win.
Kansas City 24, Denver 17
MONDAY NIGHT
DALLAS (-7) over Detroit
I think it’s fair to say that Dak Prescott responded well to the criticism that followed him after the Cowboys’ second loss of the season to the New York Giants. His stat line last week against Tampa Bay: 32 of 36 for 279 yards and a rushing touchdown. Once again, he was efficient and did just enough to win. Dallas is back on track, and coming off a tough loss to the Giants, I don’t think Detroit will be able to respond.
Dallas 31, Detroit 24
Last Week: 10–3
Season: 126–75–1
