Week 17 NFL Picks
It’s the final week of the NFL season, a phrase which generally carries a lot of importance as teams try to solidify or optimize their playoff positioning. However, the last few weeks have gone in such a way that there’s very little left to be decided heading into the playoffs. Since that is the case, I will only be making picks for the games that matter, because it’s too hard to guess who is going to play and who’s going to rest. Here we go.
New England (-9.5) over MIAMI
New England was in a similar situation last year; needing a win in Miami to lock up the top seed in the AFC, they went conservative to stay healthy while keeping their starters in, and ended up losing the game. Brady threw just 21 passes, the team put up 10 points, and the Broncos got the number one seed, leading to the crushing AFC Championship loss in Denver.
It’s not exactly the same this time. The only team that can unseat New England as the top seed is Oakland, who are now led by Matt McGloin at quarterback after Derek Carr’s broken leg sidelined him for the season. I don’t think Bill Belichick and company are afraid of going into Oakland, so perhaps they will rest their starters, but they might still have a bitter taste in their mouths about the way last season ended. Part of the issue was certainly that the team had no momentum going into the postseason, and maybe Belichick wants to avoid that and play his starters. Even if Jimmy Garoppolo plays, the Patriots will have a chance, and despite the fact that Miami has been a house of horrors for them the last few years, I’m taking New England.
New England 28, Miami 24
WASHINGTON (-7.5) over NY Giants
New York is locked into the five-seed, which would indicate that they would rest their starters in preparation for the Wild Card round. However, never underestimate the F — You potential of a divisional match-up, especially when it comes to the Giants. Even if they don’t rest all their important guys, I expect New York to pull their punches to assure they go into the playoffs at full strength.
This would leave the door open for Washington, who are limping to the finish line right now after losing three of their last four. They’re perfectly capable of blowing this game even if the Giants do give less than their best, as evidenced by Washington’s flat performance a few weeks ago on Monday Night Football against Carolina. Despite all of my fears about them, I do think Washington will win this game and secure a playoff spot.
Washington 23, New York 20
ATLANTA (-7.5) over New Orleans
Atlanta gets the two-seed with a win, so I think they’ll work to win this game. Atlanta is lurking as a not so dark horse in the NFC, for one reason: they can score the ball as well as anyone. Matt Ryan has had a MVP-level season, even though he hasn’t had Julio Jones for a few weeks at the end. They can run the ball with the two-headed running back monster of Devont’a Freeman and Tevin Coleman. They have the playmakers who can light you up and make the big plays that can swing playoff games.
The defense will be the key. Vic Beasley has been an absolute beast this season, leading the league in sacks (14.5) and forced fumbles (6). If he can raise his game to near the level of Von Miller in last season’s playoffs, the Falcons will be the NFC’s most frightening team. For now, though, they have to win this game against an inferior opponent, and I think they’ll handle their business.
Atlanta 33, New Orleans 27
Kansas City (-4.5) over SAN DIEGO
Of course, in this year of sadness and horrible luck for the Chargers, they’ll be the one team who lost to the Browns. I was happy for Cleveland and their fans, but it shows how miserable the Chargers’ season has been in its own way.
Kansas City has been playing very well recently. They crushed the Broncos at home and dropped 33 on their vaunted defense. They can defend at all levels, have a reliable quarterback in Alex Smith, and have added what they sorely missed in recent years: a big play guy, now in the form of Tyreek Hill. If Oakland loses and Kansas City wins, the Chiefs get the AFC’s second seed, so expect them to be up for this one. They’re definitely the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFC, and I don’t see them having any problem with the Chargers.
Kansas City 31, San Diego 20
Seattle (-9.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle has drifted into the background, swapping wins and losses in each of their last five games. The offense hasn’t been consistent all season, and the biggest reason is the offensive line. They can’t protect Russell Wilson, and they can’t get anything going for the running game. The defense is as good as any in the league, but they will miss Earl Thomas when the games get big. I might have picked them to come out of the NFC if Thomas was available, but since he’s out for the season, I think Seattle is missing too much of that tenacity and leadership in the defensive backfield.
However, it’s hard to deny that Seattle just has something that makes doubting them difficult. They come through more often than not, and without a juggernaut in their conference (or the league in general), you can’t discount their exceptional talent. And you definitely can’t pick against them when they’re playing the 49ers with an opportunity to take the two-seed.
Seattle 30, San Francisco 17
Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT
This is by far the biggest game of the weekend. Whoever wins this game wins the division. If the Redskins win, the team that loses this game is out. Division rivals meeting in Week 17, with huge playoff implications on the line; it doesn’t get any better than that. The narrative gets better when you realize that both teams are moving in completely different directions, with the Lions losing their last two and Green Bay winning their last five. It’s all setting up for an epic climactic ending to decide the NFC North.
When you get down to the game, the match-up, the answer is pretty clear. Green Bay has the best player and all the momentum on their side. Detroit is flailing, has a history of depressing failure, and could have easily lost in any of their eight wins. Aaron Rodgers is playing so well that people actually think it’s plausible he could win the MVP after stinking it up for ten games (by his lofty standards, anyway). Green Bay is going into the postseason hot, and that’s usually the type of team that does well. It feels destined for them.
Green Bay 27, Detroit 23
Last Week: 9–6
Season: 135–81–1
