Week 3 NFL Picks
Well, I’m giddy after my Patriots took down the Texans Thursday night 27–0 despite playing a third-string quarterback. You know, when your team wins, it brightens every part of your day. You start to see the glass half-full. Take, for example, my picks last week. After going 7–8, if the Patriots hadn’t won, I wouldn’t be ecstatic about writing this column. But since they shut out a probable playoff team, I’m ready to bounce back this week. Remember that the home team is in all caps, and the line and time are given for reference.
Oakland (-1) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET, 9/25.
Despite losing to the Falcons at home last week, I still like the Raiders. They have one of the league’s best offenses so far, and the Titans don’t have the weapons to take advantage of the Raiders’ lackluster defense. I like Marcus Mariota, but he and his team are far from the point where they can match Derek Carr and Co. point for point.
Oakland 24, Tennessee 20
MIAMI (-9.5) over Cleveland, 1:00 ET, 9/25.
All Miami has to show this season are moral victories. A close game in Seattle and nearly miraculous comeback in New England have left Dolphins fans with bitter tastes in their mouths. The offense started to gain some traction in the second half against the Patriots, but much of that can be attributed to New England’s prevent defense in a blowout. However, Miami is lucky, because they get to beat up on the Browns this week.
Miami 24, Cleveland 14
Arizona (-4) over BUFFALO, 1:00 ET, 9/25.
Arizona bounced back from the opening loss to the Patriots in a big way, crushing the Buccaneers 40–7. The defense turned Jameis Winston over five times, and Carson Palmer threw for 308 yards and three touchdowns. It only gets easier for them this week, as they go up against the banged up Bills. Additional prediction: Rex Ryan gets fired after this probable blowout.
Arizona 31, Buffalo 14
GREEN BAY (-7) over Detroit, 1:00 ET, 9/25.
This feels like a big game for Aaron Rodgers. He struggled in Minnesota last week, and now may be looking to take out his frustration on a team with a much worse defense. Back home, I think Rodgers and the entire Packers offense will go nuts. Green Bay’s defense feeds off their offense, so if Rodgers gets going early, there may be nothing Matthew Stafford can do about it.
Green Bay 27, Detroit 20
JACKSONVILLE over Baltimore (-1), 1:00 ET, 9/25.
I don’t see why Baltimore has so many backers in the media. In Week 1 they barely beat a crappy Bills team, and followed that up by spotting Josh McCown and the Browns a 20–0 lead before coming back to win by five. I know Jacksonville got walloped by the Chargers, but the Ravens don’t travel well, and the Jags are desperate.
Jacksonville 21, Baltimore 20
NY GIANTS (-3.5) over Washington, 1:00 ET, 9/25.
Washington is worse on defense, can’t run the ball consistently, have a quarterback who seems to be losing his nerve, and the local media and locker room are locked in turmoil. But other than that, everything is great. The Giants, meanwhile, have two unimpressive wins over Dallas and New Orleans. It says something about a division when its favorite can be described as “unimpressive.” At least they aren’t Washington.
New York 24, Washington 20
CAROLINA (-7) over Minnesota, 1:00 ET, 9/25.
I loved what I saw from Sam Bradford last week, and it gives me confidence that he won’t absolutely lay an egg in Carolina. Still, it’s hard place to go into without your All-Pro running back. This might be the game of the week, and the main reason I’m picking Carolina is the physicality and emotion of Minnesota’s win over Green Bay. It’s hard to turn around from a win like that and play the same on the road the next week.
Carolina 21, Minnesota 17
Denver over CINCINNATI (-3.5), 1:00 ET, 9/25.
Denver’s defense is still dominant, as has been proven in their batterings of Cam Newton and Andrew Luck through two games. Their offense is also improved from last year, as C.J. Anderson has had success as the starting running back in the second year of Gary Kubiak’s zone run scheme. Denver is just really good, especially at pulling out close games, which so happens to be what Cincy sucks at. If the Bengals can’t get their run game going, it’s going to be hard for Andy Dalton to make any headway through the air.
Denver 23, Cincinnati 21
SEATTLE (-9.5) over San Fransisco, 4:05 ET, 9/25.
Seattle has serious problems with their offense. The cracks in the line force a hobbled Russell Wilson to run for his life and keep Thomas Rawls from being able to come back fully healthy. We’ll see if they can work out the kinks this week, because the defense is playing so well that the offense can take its time and experiment against the likes of Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers.
Seattle 24, San Fransisco 14
TAMPA BAY (-5) over Los Angeles, 4:05 ET, 9/25.
Jameis Winston had the worst game of his career in Arizona last week, but I’m confident he and the offense can make a comeback. They are playing the Rams after all. Against Case Keenum, all you really need is 17 points and you’ll win, probably comfortably. The Rams’ offense is just so bad, and it’s a shame to see Todd Gurley waste away like this. Oh well.
Tampa Bay 24, Los Angeles 13
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA, 4:25 ET, 9/25.
Pittsburgh is a fantastic team, and they were just tested by Cincinnati last week, an exam they passed with flying colors. They can score on you at any time, and they have a pretty good run defense. Carson Wentz is being billed as the franchise savior, and he’s played well, but it was against the Browns and the Bears. He’s in for a real test now.
Pittsburgh 28, Philadelphia 17
NY Jets over KANSAS CITY (-3), 4:25 ET, 9/25.
After the Texans’ horrid showing on Thursday, the Chiefs’ loss to Houston looks that much worse. The Jets are banged up, but talented, and have had a long week to prepare. They hung in against a really good Bengals team, and put up 37 on the Bills last week. Meanwhile, the Chiefs had to make a crazy comeback at San Diego and then had the aforementioned loss to Houston. New York is simply playing better.
New York 24, Kansas City 23
San Diego over INDIANAPOLIS (-1), 4:25 ET, 9/25.
The Colts might be really bad. Like, really bad. The defense can’t defend the run or the pass, and the offensive line and running game give Andrew Luck no room to operate. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers is still his reliable self, having just lit up the Jaguars for four touchdowns last week. He can pick this weak defense apart, plus the Chargers are better on the road anyway.
San Diego 30, Indianapolis 27
DALLAS (-7) over Chicago, 8:30 ET, 9/25
Dallas came up with a big win in Washington last week, led by rookie QB Dak Prescott. The Dallas defense has been surprisingly solid through two games, and that offensive line is as destructive as ever. As for the Bears, well, Monday proved that they belong in the basement of the league’s hierarchy. They couldn’t beat a rookie QB in his second start (first on national television), on a team devoid of much talent. They’re just not very good.
Dallas 24, Chicago 17
MONDAY NIGHT
Atlanta over NEW ORLEANS (-3), 8:30 ET, 9/26.
My reasoning here is very simple. In Week 1, the Saints lost to the Raiders at home. Last week, the Falcons beat the Raiders on the road. It doesn’t hurt that the Saints only scored 13 points in an uninspiring lost to the Giants last week. That New Orleans secondary can’t handle Julio Jones, and the Falcons defense should be able to do enough to secure a victory.
Atlanta 28, New Orleans 27
Last Week: 7–8
Season: 21–9
