The Ladder: Week 3

Welcome to Week 3’s Ladder. After a slew of close games, upsets, blowouts, etc. (or just a normal week in the NFL?), It’s time to take a look at who’s fallen a few rungs and who’s prepared to keep climbing.

As the early games flew by, and I watched the Vikings upset the Panthers, I couldn’t help but associate my feelings with the way a parent must feel when their child — against all odds — wins a trophy for an achievement no one else saw coming, considering I ranked the Vikings #2 in last week’s Ladder. I’d imagine it’s like watching your child’s homemade volcano, which you thought was too original, win 1st prize at the science fair. Self adulation aside, upsets were aplenty on Sunday — with the Steelers and Cardinals (both top-10 in Week 2’s Ladder), losing to teams outside the top-10. With circumstances changing all around the league for possible playoff teams, and Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 6 INTs, Trevor Siemian’s 4 TDs, and Marvin Jones’ 205-yard game still fresh on our minds, here is Week 3’s Ladder…

Please note that the rankings in The Ladder aren’t just based off of the result of the previous week, rather each team’s performance in the season to-date, as well as forecasting the prospect of team success in future weeks.

32. Chicago Bears

The Bears looked out of sync for the third straight week on Sunday night — mostly due to Brian Hoyer’s insertion as quarterback due to Jay Culter’s injury. Though Hoyer is clearly a below-average quarterback and struggled mightily to make plays, he isn’t the starting quarterback and shouldn’t be high on the list when it comes to this team’s worries. Tyron Smith, Dallas’ premier left-tackle was inactive for this game and Chicago didn’t record a single sack on the quarterback. Not to mention, Ezekiel Elliott played 51 of 68 total snaps in this game and still managed to rush for 140-yards. Vic Fangio has a lot to clean up and if he can’t manage to do so, it’s a shame the league moved the draft out of Chicago because the fans could be looking at a potential first overall selection next year.

31. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers had no chance against the Seahawks and surely have no hope for many wins this season. Much has been made about Blaine Gabbert’s fluidity and his ability to look a “blade of grass” above-average and then to look so bad that we question why he’s even playing. On the road against Seattle, and down 37–3 in the fourth quarter, Carlos Hyde was able to break off a 34-yard run which began the slew of garbage-time stat inflation which was to follow. If this is their worst game of the year, Chip Kelly and his staff should consider themselves lucky.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags offense started off slow yet again, with three straight drives in the first quarter resulting in punts, with a miraculous C.J. Mosley interception to follow. This was a winnable game and they let it slip away — a blocked field goal attempt in the fourth quarter up 17–16, the Ravens recovered and gave themselves great field position to kick a game winning field goal of their own. In their final drive Blake Bortles throws a terrible ball which gets intercepted after the game was likely already out of reach. Week by week the losses are coming and Gus Bradley’s job probably should be in jeopardy.

29. Cleveland Browns

The Browns jump from two straight weeks at #32 to #29 is encouraging for what’s poised to be a lost season for the Cleveland bunch. A game no one thought they’d have a chance in, the Browns, led by rookie Cody Kessler, took the game to overtime and lost on the road to the Dolphins. Cody Parkey’s three missed field goals cost them the game in his first week with the team. Terrelle Pryor keeps getting better each week as a receiver and that gives Kessler a playmaker to work with, if he indeed starts again next week.

28. New Orleans Saints

The Saints defense was about as tough to watch as last night’s Presidential debate. They’ve been inept all season and despite their offensive success, their street free-agents (whom happen to be starting) just aren’t getting the job done. Be it James Laurinatis, Roman Harper, Paul Kruger, or Nick Fairley, the Saints just haven’t had their young defensive talent develop in any productive way the last few years. Pressed against the cap every year, they don’t offer themselves much room for improvement — a big reason why they currently stand at 0–3.

27. Miami Dolphins

Despite a great game from DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry, they should’ve lost if not for the struggling Cody Parkey. Miami has had trouble on defense since holding the Seahawks to just 12 points in Week 1. Thursday’s game against the Bengals will be a real test to see if they can come back from two early season losses against real contenders. Miami will likely struggle to run the ball in this contest and it will be the offensive line’s responsibility to keep Tannehill upright, as well as on Tannehill to make the right decisions.

26. Tennessee Titans

Just as soon as everyone bought into the Titans and the early success of DeMarco Murray, Marcus Mariota’s emergence, and the smashmouth defense, they lose at home to the Raiders. The turnovers dug them a hole they couldn’t crawl out of. Namely, an interception thrown by Marcus Mariota at the outset of the fourth quarter of a 17–10 game. Those kinds of mistakes must be avoided in order to win close games.

25. Detroit Lions

The Lions defense couldn’t contain Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson in the first half of this game, though we’re not sure who could. Down 31–3, they clawed their way back into the game despite another week with no rushing attack. Matt Stafford and Marvin Jones picked up the slack in the second half after connecting on a 72-yard touchdown pass late in the second quarter. Like so many other teams, mistakes dug them a hole too deep to crawl out of in the first 30 minutes of play. Stafford is averaging 40 pass attempts per game and with no threat of a run-game, a defense’s game plan for the Lions is far easier than it should be.

24. Washington Redskins

Every Redskins win is a snowflake — no one win is like the other. After toiling the last two weeks, they traveled to the Metlife Stadium to take on the Giants. In a back and forth contest, Dustin Hopkins was king, as his five field goals were the deciding factor. The ‘Skins needed this game to avoid burying themselves in the NFC East standings at 0–3. Now, with DeAngelo Hall, who was in his first season playing saftey, out for the remainder of the year with a torn ACL, and Breshaud Breeland doubtful to play next week with a strained ankle tendon, the injuries are piling up — which means the wins must pile up sooner than later. Shawn Lauvao, a right guard who’s been playing well since signing with Washington, was also injured against the Giants and if he misses any time, the cohesion of the offensive line could be in question — not a good sign for captain Kirk.

23. Buffalo Bills

A “WTF?” game, no doubt for the Bills. Just a week and some change after firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman, the Bills offense responded by scoring 26 points on a respected Cardinals defense. To boot, the Bills defense made Carson Palmer miserable for four straight quarters wreaking havoc across the entire Arizona offensive line. The Bills pass rush, led by Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, and Lorenzo Alexander, finally woke up and made multiple reservations for dates with Carson Palmer on the turf. If Rex’s pass rush can continue to stay vibrant and alive, this could be the awakening Buffalo fans were waiting for, nonetheless, next week in Foxboro will be no short order.

22. Indianapolis Colts

The Indy offense finally finished a game. They watched a 10-point first quarter lead evaporate into a 13–13 game at halftime. As the game drew near a close, Andrew Luck avoided turning the ball over, and hit T.Y. Hilton for a game winning score against a skilled Chargers team. These teams were evenly matched and the score represented that. Both are led by great QBs, but suffer from shaky defenses. The Colts were fortunate to get Vontae Davis back in this game or the results might’ve been much different.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Another clunker for the Bucs. After getting thumped by the Cardinals, another NFC West team, the Rams, beat them in a shootout. A costly fumble on 3rd down by Jameis Winston, which was returned for 77-yards and a score in the fourth quarter of a 24–20 game which the Bucs trailed, was too much for them to overcome. The game was stopped at the 2-minute warning for 70 minutes due to lightening. Down 37–32 once play resumed, the Bucs defense came up with a huge stop and had the ball with great field position at their own 44. Jameis was able to move the ball down the field on the final drive, but on the game’s last play he wasn’t able to throw to an open receiver and was forced to scamper for a few yards — but ultimately, they weren’t enough and they lost. Without Doug Martin to make plays, they’ll need their defense to keep scores close, which they haven’t done each of the last two weeks.

20. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas’ defense still isn’t good enough to make them a real contender, though the offense has been able to lead them to good fortune, despite Dak Prescott’s first touchdown pass being thrown in this game — his third start. In what was a pretty unwatchable game on the Chicago side, the Cowboys got the job done in the air and on the ground and didn’t make the kinds of mistakes that cost teams these types of winnable games. They’ll need a win again next week against the Niners in San Fran, because after that they’ll be playing the Bengals and Packers in back to back weeks.

19. Los Angeles Rams

The L.A. Rams sit atop the NFC West after beating the Seahawks and Bucs over the last two weeks. This week, they saw good things from all three phases. Their quarterback, Case Keenum, was able to move the ball down the field, even connecting with Brian Quick for a 44-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter on 3rd and 7. Though Todd Gurley was able to score on two goal-line runs, he still hasn’t had a game in which he’s been utterly dominant they way we saw last season. After shutting down the Seahawks offense, they allowed the Bucs to score four offensive touchdowns. They shouldn’t expect their offense to be this efficient week-to-week and they need better play from their defense to keep up their winning ways.

18. Atlanta Falcons

Facing a Saints defense which hasn’t been able to stop much of anything, the Falcons offense, which is filled with playmakers, must’ve been licking their chops. They did so for good reason, as Atlanta put up 45 points on Monday Night Football and DeVonta Freeman rushed for 152-yards. Taking away his longest rush of 48 yards, on just 13-carries, Freeman averaged 8-yards per carry. Tevin Coleman was also a focal point, specifically along the goal line, scoring two touchdowns there and hauling in 47-yards receiving. The Falcons defense isn’t very good, which is what makes Julio Jones’ lone catch for 16-yards awfully alarming. For the rest of the year, they’ll need to score often to win games and just one catch for Julio Jones is unacceptable.

17. San Diego Chargers

Philip Rivers has lost 29 road games as Chargers QB since 2010, that’s an average of 4.8 per season. He and the Chargers have now already lost their first two road games this season. Their misfortune on the road has cost them playoff berths in past seasons and things might be headed that way this season as well. It’s also possible that they might be the most injured team in football so far — week after week starters are going down and for next week’s game against the Saints, they could be down both starting corners in Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett — not a good sign — considering the Chargers are also Drew Brees’ former team.

16. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders were desperate for better defensive play and their defense delivered in their bout against the Titans. Keith McGill was struggling as a starting safety and he was replaced by rookie Karl Joseph, who played well. Opposite Joseph, Reggie Nelson had a great game against as well. The offensive line — one of the best units in football, had another sound game protecting Derek Carr and offering running lanes for Oakland’s multiple backs.

15. New York Jets

In what was an inverse of last week’s game with the Bills, the Jets looked displaced in Kansas City. They struggled in every area but their offensive line’s inability to protect Fitzpatrick caused him to make disastrous mistakes. Though the defense is talented, they aren’t good enough to win when the offense struggles. Chan Gailey is going to have to adapt his scheme in order to avoid predictability and the exposure of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s limitations.

14. Houston Texans

Bill O’Brien was outcoached versus his former boss Bill Belichick on Thursday. O’Brien’s plan was to get Lamar Miller going early and try to exploit the Patriots secondary as the game progressed. This did not work. The Texans insisted on running the ball on first down in the first half and New England was all over it. When Jacoby Brissett ran a fake handoff opposite of J.J. Watt for a touchdown, the befuddled Houston defense looked demoralized. To make a bad week worse, Tuesday night the Texans announced that J.J. Watt could possibly miss the remainder of the season after re-injuring his back, an injury which will require surgery. If he does miss the rest of the year, the absence of the 3-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year is a hard thing to hurdle.

13. New York Giants

The Giants loss cost them an early season 1st place ranking in the NFC East which could be a 9-win division this season. They couldn’t put away the Redskins who appeared to be plodding. Their defense had played well this season, but couldn’t keep Washington out of field goal range. The offense was sufficient for most of the game and Sterling Shepard is really complementing Odell Beckham nicely, as many expected. A late INT on pass to Shane Vereen ended their final drive and any chance of a game winning field goal. With two road games on the docket against the Vikings and Packers, this game was one they really needed.

12. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have had likely the toughest schedule this September and have walked away from the wreckage 1–2. A win over the Jets, a bubble team, and consecutive losses to two Super Bowl contenders, they now need to bounce back on a short week against the Dolphins. Trevor Siemian had a great game as the Cincinnati secondary continuously floundered. A poorly thrown 55-yard touchdown to Demaryius Thomas on 3rd and 11 late in the fourth quarter was the coup de grace for the Bengals in Week 3.

11. Baltimore Ravens

A 3–0 start for a team whose practice facility was practically a hospital last season. Baltimore has been blessed with a 3rd place schedule and has raked in early wins against the Bills, Browns, and Jaguars, each in the bottom-10 of this week’s Ladder. Health is still a glaring issue for this team, but beating teams you’re supposed to beat has been a chore for others around the league this season. A negative reality is, they’ve yet to have a 100-yard rusher this season in each of their three games and frankly, there isn’t much talent in that area of the depth chart — any injury to Joe Flacco would (again) be fatal.

10. Arizona Cardinals

Was it the East Coast 1pm start that did the Cards in? Or was it the offensive line’s inability to pick up a blitz? Heading into Week 4 it doesn’t matter for the desert-dwelling bunch as their championship aspirations have been jolted by two large speed-bumps named the Patriots and the Bills. A game they clearly should’ve won, against a team with much less talent, neither the offense nor the (run) defense had enough in the tank. Marcus Cooper returned as the starting right side cornerback, displaying another solid performance along with the rest of the secondary — though Week 1’s scapegoat Brandon Williams didn’t see a defensive snap. The front seven’s inability to penetrate the line of scrimmage and tackle LeSean McCoy is undoubtedly disconcerting.

9. Carolina Panthers

Ron Rivera’s club dropped another game against a league powerhouse in the Vikings. Minnesota’s corners reigned supreme for four quarters, keeping stud wideout Kelvin Benjamin catchless. Taking away Cam’s playmakers made him and the Carolina offense largely ineffective. A safety and a punt returned for a touchdown aroused the Vikings and began their illustrious stride toward victory. Too often, Minnesota was able to do what they wanted on offense with Sam Bradford and Jerrick McKinnon — players which the Panthers should’ve been able to subside.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers

Steel City’s heads hung low on Sunday afternoon, as their cross-state rivals, who weren’t expected to win, played a mistake-free game and torched the Super Bowl contenders for 34 points. Crucial mistakes were made by Mike Tomlin’s team in this game — two penalties on William Gay extended drives and set the Eagles up with solid field position. It didn’t help that their offensive line also couldn’t block Philly’s front seven and the offense was mostly ineffective. This was a game for Pittsburgh where everything went wrong — a game some teams need to understand not to take opposing teams lightly. Perhaps, for them this could be the equivalent to the Patriots/Chiefs matchup in 2014 which propelled the Patriots to a Super Bowl victory.

7. Seattle Seahawks

Offensive line woes, coupled with no running game stacked against the Hawks in Week 2 against the Rams. They, fortunately, were able to overcome nearly all setbacks against the 49ers in perhaps the 2nd most dominating game of the week (see Eagles, Philadelphia). The offensive line struggles aren’t likely to go away and it’s clear through three weeks that it’s the biggest point of weakness on this team. Russell Wilson’s health relies heavily upon protection provided by the offensive line and he’s been banged up for now a second week in a row with an MCL sprain. Germain Ifedi, thir first round pick this year, will likely play his first game next week, a welcoming sign for a laboring unit in need of better guard play. However, as the Cardinals continue to slide, the Seahawks need a road win against the Jets in Week 4, with a Week 5 bye to get healthy and focus on the stretch run to the postseason.

6. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs made minced meat of the New York Jets in a statement win on Sunday. With a bevy of concerns about their pass rush, they got consistent pressure on Fitzpatrick forcing him to throw the ball quickly, often into double — sometimes triple — coverage. An interception in the redzone from their own 5-yard line didn’t allow the Jets to ever establish any kind of encouragement on the offensive side and Kansas City won convincingly.

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Anyone who saw Sunday’s result coming is lying to you. The Eagles made an embarrassment of the Pittsburgh Steelers one play at a time. Down Zach Ertz and Leodis McKelvin, both Trey Burton and Jalen Mills stepped up in their place. Jim Schwartz was so confident in his defense’s ability to manufacture pressure with his front four, that he left Jalen Mills, a rookie 7th round pick, to cover Antonio Brown man-to-man in a single-high set. Without turning the ball over in yet another contest, Carson Wentz looked poised throughout the game and was hitting his targets with accuracy. Everyone was waiting for the Eagles to beat a good team, and no one thought that team would be the other team from Pennsylvania. Unfortunately for the Eagles, Lane Johnson’s impending departure due to suspension will have a great impact on this team — though Kelce, Barbre, and Peters have played better this season, consistency is key for an offensive line unit and always plays a huge role in any given team’s success.

4. Green Bay Packers

Nobody comes into this house. Without paying the price. Not here. Not ever.

The Packers took care of business against the Lions like most figured they would. The Minnesota game was disappointing for both the players and the staff and could really cost them in the standings. The offensive — specifically Jordy Nelson, appeared to be back on track in this game — as Nelson hauled in 2 TDs and 101-yards. The big concern for Green Bay was their pass defense which allowed Matt Stafford to throw for 385-yards and ignite a comeback late. Leading 31–10 at the half, the Lions scored 17 in the second half and were within arm’s reach. Their run defense, as Ben Fennell points out on Twitter, has only allowed 1.8 yards per carry to opposing teams this season. Clay Matthews, Morgan Burnett, Sam Shields, and Letroy Guion all missed last week’s game, and Datone Jones exited early. This defense will need time to rest up during their bye week and get healthy to take on a hungry New York Giants in Week 5.

3. Denver Broncos

Everyone doubted Trevor Siemian and the Broncos — besides the Broncos. They kept their matchup against the Bengals close and won it in the fourth quarter — something they did commonly during last year’s Super Bowl season. Gary Kubiak’s revamped offense has been effective and Wade Philips’ defense has been the steady rock it usually is again this season. In a game that was close throughout, Denver was fortunate to win it. No doubt it’s helping Trevor Siemian to have Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas to throw to, but Siemian has avoided making catastrophic mistakes to this point and players on both sides of the ball have made plays around him — Derek Wolfe and Shane Ray specifically, on the defensive side.

2. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings/Panthers game was a tooth & nail defensive matchup. Without question, come season’s end, these two teams will be atop Football Outsider’s DVOA rankings. Missing Adrian Peterson, the Vikings have now beaten the two teams many thought to be the likeliest teams to win the NFC this season, in back-to-back weeks. Their defense is impeccable and their ability to control the line of scrimmage against Cam was what won them the game, despite an offense which struggled. With Peterson missing, the pressure will now be on Sam Bradford to make plays often — something with which he’s struggled with from time to time. Unfortunately for the Vikes, their schedule doesn’t get much easier in the following weeks, with games against the Giants (home), Texans (home), and Eagles (away), each of the next three weeks. Alex Boone’s injury could possibly be a fatal blow to the Vikings offensive line after they’ve already lost Matt Kahlil for the season. Regardless of the outcome of this year, the way Mike Zimmer and his staff have handled each of these injuries has been awe-inspiring.

1. New England Patriots

The Patriots proved again on Thursday why they’re the best team in the NFL. With a third-string QB, against a perennial division leader, their defense wrapped a tourniquet around the Texans offense, shutting them out on a national stage. The Patriots game plan was just as I mentioned in last week’s column, feed LeGarrette Blount with 24 touches for 105-yards and two TDs. Houston couldn’t get anything going offensively and the Patriots completely took away any opportunity Lamar Miller had to make plays. Though Gronk returned for just 14 snaps, it’s still a positive sign with Brady’s return scheduled for Week 5. They keep winning with backup QBs, who’s to expect anything different once a four-time Super Bowl winning quarterback is behind center? They’ve beaten two likely playoff teams in Arizona and Houston — who saw that coming? That gets you the top spot on The Ladder.