Who Can Prevent a Warriors Cavs Trilogy?
Five teams that can make the next seven months of basketball meaningful and stop the inevitable Finals rubber match…
It’s time to kick off the NBA season, and story lines abound. Will the Cavaliers repeat as NBA champions? Will Kevin Durant fit in with his new Warriors teammates? Is this the year LeBron James finally starts to show his age? Which Warriors superstar will have to sacrifice shots? What will happen when Golden State returns to Cleveland on Christmas?
Okay fine, Warriors and Cavs story lines abound. We’ve heard about Golden State and Cleveland all summer and it looks certain we’ll be talking about them all year right up until they meet again in June. But with so much Warriors and Cavs hype, what other teams could stop either of them from making the 2017 NBA Finals?
Here are five teams that could prevent a Warriors-Cavs threepeat…
5. San Antonio Spurs
Folks seem to be sleeping on the Spurs yet again, despite the fact that nearly everyone is back from a team that went 67–15 last year and had better advanced stats than the 73-win Warriors. Yes the Warriors set all sorts of offensive records, but let’s not forget that the Spurs were equally as good defensively last year.
Tim Duncan is not back, and his loss will be felt. But this was not the Duncan of old, and he was not playing heavy minutes anymore. Pau Gasol will add more versatility on offense, and the Spurs have also added Dejounte Muray, Livio Jean-Charles, Davis Bertans, and Dewayne Dedmon — a bunch of guys you haven’t heard of yet that’ll be playing 25 minutes in a 6th straight Spurs win in January while Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili sit.
These Spurs are still really deep and they’re still really good. And they’re the most likely team to win a championship outside of Cleveland and Golden State. So why aren’t they #1? Because I’m not totally convinced they can actually beat the Warriors in the Western playoffs. I’m giving credit to the defense and to Pop and to the possibility of something new surprising us all. But I remain convinced that last year’s Warriors had solved the Spurs with ball movement and a switching defense — and that was before adding Kevin Durant, whose athleticism has always befuddled San Antonio.
If someone else can knock out Golden State, San Antonio may be the most likely benefactor. But I’m not sure they can do the job themselves.
4. Atlanta Hawks
Everyone knows Cleveland is the team to beat out East, and Boston (more on them later) is the most likely next up, but it’s anyone’s guess after that. I’m buying stock on the Atlanta Hawks. And yes, that means I’m buying stock in Dwight Howard.
Howard is an all-time great big man but he’s become something of a laughingstock to NBA fans over the last few years because he was a terrible fit in Houston and Los Angeles. Howard used to be a top-2 player — less than five years ago, you could make a sane argument for starting a franchise with Howard over LeBron James — but hasn’t recovered physically or mentally from his recent struggles.
Well I’m buying a return home to Atlanta and a new team and coaching staff that knows how to use him as one last jolt to a career on the downswing. Everyone is worried that Howard can’t shoot like Al Horford, removing the versatility Atlanta had the last few years, but we forget that Horford and Millsap didn’t shoot either before coach Mike Budenholzer set up a system to fit the team’s available talents. Bud isn’t going to turn Dwight Howard into a shooter, but why shouldn’t we believe he can set up the right offense to maximize Howard’s strengths?
In Atlanta, Dwight will play with Dennis Schroeder, maybe the best point guard he’s ever played with. Those pick-and-rolls could be devastating, especially with Kyle Korver waiting on the wing for an open jumper. And then think of the defense you can build with Howard manning the middle, Kent Bazemore on the wing, and the ever-underrated Millsap cleaning up in between. Atlanta could have a top-5 defense and an above average offense, and a team built around this size and defense could give Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and Channing Frye all sorts of problems.
Of course, Atlanta has been swept each of the last two years by Cleveland in the playoffs, and they lost Jeff Teague and Al Horford. The Cavs are favorites for a reason. But with Donald Glover’s new FX show a hit, maybe this is the year of Atlanta…
3. Los Angeles Clippers
I wanted to put the Clippers at #1 — they have Chris Paul AND Blake Griffin AND DeAndre Jordan, and they have Doc Rivers and veterans and versatility — but I just have a difficult time buying in for the umpteenth straight year. Let’s build a case anyway.
Again we have a team with size that could really bother the Warriors. Golden State has no answer to DeAndre Jordan rolling to the rim on a pick-and-roll, and a healthy Blake Griffin like the one we saw in the playoffs two years ago could be Draymond Green’s worst nightmare. I’d love to see Blake split more onto the second team and running the offense totally through him in the Draymond point forward role this year, a spot he would thrive in.
If the Clippers can finally figure out how to keep CP3, Blake, and DAJ on the floor together, the Warriors wouldn’t have an answer to their size and that should let the Clips keep up offensively. The problem is that we’ve been here before and it simply hasn’t worked. The Warriors Death Lineup was basically invented to screw with the Clippers and it has crushed them, outscoring the Clips by over one point per minute last year. It turns out Blake and DAJ have no shot keeping up with the Warriors offensively either when they go small and spread the court. And that was before the Warriors added the Kevin Durant vs Luc Mbah a Moute mismatch.
At the end of the day, there’s just no reason to believe the Clippers should be any better this year than they have been the last two years. Veterans like CP3, Jamal Crawford, and Paul Pierce are another year older, and Blake too is moving further from his athletic prime.
The Warriors have taken 7 of the last 8 from L.A. and, even though many of the games were close or saw LA leading into the 4th quarter, they seem totally confident that they can flip the switch and beat this team. It all dates back to the 2014 playoffs when the Warriors took the Clips to seven, ultimately losing but unlocking the current version of Steph Curry and small ball Ws we know so well now. And now the Warriors have Durant. Good luck, Doc.
2. Utah Jazz
Remember, these are the teams most likely to prevent the Warriors or Cavs from reaching the Finals, not necessarily the most likely to win a championship. And I truly believe the Utah Jazz are the Western team most likely to prevent Golden State from reaching this year’s NBA Finals.
Which team gave Golden State the most trouble last year? Obviously Cleveland and Oklahoma City did in the playoffs, but it was Boston that pushed them most in the regular season. And they did it with a stifling defense, a deep versatile rotation of players, and strong coaching. That’s the blueprint for this Jazz team.
It’s easy to forget, but Utah was one of the best teams in the league during the second half of the 2014–15 season. Rudy Gobert was a revelation on defense, posting unheard of advanced defensive metrics, while Favors and Hayward followed suit. Utah had a boatload of injuries last year and still finished just five games out of the 5-seed, and now an excellent offseason should help them further.
George Hill is a mammoth upgrade at point guard, the perfect leader of this team as a sticky, annoying defender and a nice shooter. Joe Johnson adds veteran leadership and a needed scoring punch off the bench, and Boris Diaw provides versatility on the front line. Gobert and Favors are both still young and developing each year, and Rodney Hood and Trey Lyles look ready to bust on the scene further too. These Jazz are ready to make some noise.
Utah played the Warriors tough last year with a 3-point loss and an overtime loss, and they beat them the year before. This Jazz team should be even better and could give the Warriors fits defensively with their athleticism. Remember how Memphis went up two-games-to-one on Golden State in the playoffs two years ago by slowing everything down to a grind and playing physical defensive playoff basketball? That’s what Utah will be hoping for, and add in the thin air home court advantage as well.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the Jazz are headed for home court in the first round. With the early injury to Hayward, they could struggle to get going and would likely face the Warriors in the second or even first round. But I still think they’re the best bet out West to take down Golden State.
1. Boston Celtics
And then there’s the Celtics. Boston already beat Cleveland 3 times over the last two regular seasons along with a 1-point loss, so we know they can play the Cavs well. And that was before many of these young players matured and before the Celtics landed the summer’s second biggest free agent, Al Horford.
Boston is built a lot like coach Brad Stevens’ Butler teams that made back-to-back surprise runs to the national title game not long ago. Both teams are stocked with well-conditioned athletes and a deep roster that will run and play intense defense on every possession making you fight for everything. Both have a blue-collar work ethic that reflects the coach, scrapping on every play and keeping the games close and lower scoring. In March the underdogs that make Cinderella runs are often teams that play tough defense, limit possessions, and play smart offense with high variance (lots of 3s). That’s exactly this Celtic blueprint for victory and it’s why Boston is the most likely team to take down one of 2016–17’s top contenders.
Of Golden State and Cleveland, the Cavs are clearly the more vulnerable team. If the two swapped conferences, you could make a case for four or five West teams that could give them a good series (though Cleveland would be favored over all except maybe San Antonio). The Cavs have the best player in the world in LeBron James but that also means they have the most to lose if he gets hurt, starts to slip with age, or goes into one of the funks we’ve seen in the past. When James goes Full LeBron the Cavs can beat anyone, even a 73-win Warriors team. But a team that limits LeBron and forces Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love to beat them will have a shot — and don’t forget those guys have a big history of injuries too.
Boston has Jae Crowder to throw at LeBron, and rookie Jaylen Brown could match up well too. Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart will keep Kyrie’s hands full all game, and Al Horford and Amir Johnson will push Love and Tristan Thompson defensively and on the boards. The Celtics are set up to defend the Cavs well, if they can just find enough points themselves.
And then there’s the wild card factor. Boston still has more trade assets than any team in the league with all of its young players and Brooklyn draft picks. If a star like Russell Westbrook, LaMarcus Aldridge, or Boogie Cousins is available midseason, Boston is the favorite to be the new home. Any one of those guys could be the X-factor to put Boston over the top against the Cavs.
Yes, Boston was swept out of the playoffs in 2015 by the Cavs, but the Celtics have come a long way since then. The defense is much stickier, the young players are much better, and Al Horford is there now.
Like it or not, the Boston Celtics might be our best shot at avoiding Cavaliers-Warriors III next June!
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