Atlanta Hawks Preview
It was a good decade long run playoff run.
Last Season
First of all congratulations to the Hawks for making the playoffs in each of the last 10 years, the second longest active streak behind San Antonio’s 20 year streak. While San Antonio is a safe bet to continue that, the Hawks might finally rebuild, something one could argue they should have done last season. But, short term thinking prevailed and now this offseason could see the Hawks either bottom out (smart move) or compete for the 9th seed (not smart move).
On paper the roster entering last season was decent one, not good enough to be a contender but a playoff team with a ceiling of the 4th seed was attainable if things broke right. Things did not break right, as Dwight Howard complained about lack of touches (what else is new), Dennis Schroeder showed good potential especially on drives but had issues with decision-making causing the offense to flow better with him off the court at times, and Paul Millsap’s field goal percentage went from a mediocre 47% last season to 44.2%(!!) this year. Kyle Korver was traded, Kent Bazemore shot worse, and although Taurean Prince was a pleasant surprise the team was not very good. With that being said, the Hawks made the playoffs as the 5th seed, but the standing was lucky, as the team was only 2 games above the 8th seed and had the worst point differential of any playoff team. Using basketball reference’s rating system which takes into account point differential and strength of schedule, the Hawks finished below average and as the 20th best team.
“But wait, Dwight averaged 13.5 and 12.7 on a career high 63.3% shooting!” That’s great, but all the evidence you need that Howard was detrimental to the team is the fact that they traded him and 31st pick for Miles Plumlee, Marco Belinelli, and the 41st pick. It seemed like the team is going in the direction of a rebuild, and they’re shedding Howard’s contract. But Plumlee is a complete non-factor earning $12.5 million a year until 2020! While Belinelli is just a backup shooting guard who provides moderate outside shooting and not much more. Oh and the team moved down 10 spots! This is one of those trades where you wonder if the Hawks could be better off just buying Howard out.
Draft From the Past
19th pick John Collins is an athletic 6’10 power forward. He has a quick first step, can finish in a pick n roll, and has low post moves. The midrange shot is inconsistent and he did not take a single 3 pointer in his two years at Wake Forest, but he nevertheless has a ton of offensive upside, especially if the shot develops. On defense is where he struggles but he can develop into a decent two way player, although the upside is capped due to his skinny frame. Over time he can develop into a player like Shareef Abdur-Rahim, utilizing his quick first step and ability to finish through contact to abuse opposing centers.
Offseason Priority
The major decision comes down to what they do with Paul Millsap. If they re-sign him, they are essentially capped out and will trot out a roster competing for the 8th seed, while further mortgaging their future. Losing Millsap will free up some room, but they are still paying a premium for Miles Plumlee. With that being said, the priority for the team should be to retain Mike Muscala and try to develop their young players. Muscala would fit well with Collins as both are hybrid power forward-centers in the modern NBA, and while Collins is bruising in low post, Muscala can step outside and stretch the floor. Muscala is also not a bad defender, and the Hawks have his bird rights, so keeping him would allow the team to have more cap space despite the bad contracts.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is another question mark for the team, as he played well last year, but still has not proven that he is good enough to be a team’s starting shooting guard. The rebuild would allow the team to figure out exactly what he is, but he is a restricted free agent so depending on how much other teams offer, retaining Hardaway might not be a good idea.
Free Agency Tinder Superlike
The other need for the Hawks would be a backup point guard who can pass and space the floor well, while potentially playing alongside Schroeder at times. Going into a full rebuild, the lineup could be Schroeder, Hardaway, Prince, Collins, Muscala, with DeAndre Bembrey playing as a versatile bench wing, and the 41st pick Tyler Dorsey playing an off-the-bench instant offense type of role. With a team this young, having a veteran present to guide the team is also beneficial. Enter Patty Mills. Long time backup point guard for the Spurs, Mills shot 41.4% from 3 last season and displayed smart passing in the Spurs system. A hard working defensive player with a history of success playing off-ball makes Mills a great fit to help the Hawks develop their young players. Convincing Mills to come is hard though, but hey, it’s tinder.
One Defining Stat
The Hawks posted an offensive rating of 104.9, which is 27th in the league. Never the highest scoring offense, but with losing Al Horford, Schroeder playing selfishly, and a number of role players regressing offensively, scoring was a huge problem for the team. Not that it matters, the team should be rebuilding anyways, but one can assume similar problems for the team next year.
How far away are they
Very far, the Hawks have two choices, bottom out or delay bottoming out. But compared to other teams bottoming out, the young talents on the Hawks are rather mediocre and old. It’s disheartening but Atlanta could follow a 10-year playoff streak with a 10-year lottery streak.
The Up and Under
Up: Team commits to the rebuild. Schroeder improves his decision-making. Budenholzer helps Collins develop decent defensive skills. Hardaway and Prince take the next step. Despite the optimism, the team finishes near the bottom and receives a top 3 pick in the 2018 draft.
Under: Millsap is re-signed for a 5 year max, hindering the rebuild for 5 years cumulating to paying an undersized 37 year old power forward max salary in 2022. Schroeder gets into more drama with the coach, his teammates, and Isaiah Thomas. Hardaway gets massively overpaid and fails to improve. Collins, Prince, and other young pieces’ growth are stunted by the Hawks trying to win-now. Team still can’t shoot, games are boring, ticket sales drop, Hawks become the most irrelevant team in the NBA, competes for the 9th seed every year.
