Dallas Mavericks Preview
Sneaky good roster heading into next season
Last Season
Warriorsblue heading into last season had reasons for optimism, after acquiring two starters from the team that finished with the greatest regular season record of all time (and owning their own Curry), the Mavericks looked like a solid team. Unfortunately they did not play like a solid team, Andrew Bogut’s injury and subsequent complaining led to him being traded and bought out. Starting point guard Deron Williams also got waived midseason and so the team played a Dirk Nowitzki at center with a point guard carousel of Yogi Ferrell, Seth Curry, J.J. Barea, and Devin Harris.
With a lineup of rotating point guard, Wes Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Nowitzki, and midseason acquisition Nerlens Noel, the team played well, which is a cause for optimism. Barnes in particular led the team at 19.2 points and 5 rebounds on 46.8% shooting. Noel only played 22 minutes per game and put on mediocre 8.5 points and 6.8 rebounds, but nevertheless showed his defensive ability, averaging 1.0 steals and 1.1 blocks! Barnes and Noel are 25 and 23 respectively, and should only improve. Nowitzki declined a bit but nevertheless played well on offense and scored his 30000 regular season point, becoming just the 6th player ever to do so.
Draft from the Past
9th pick Dennis Smith Jr. is an explosive 6’3 point guard from NC state. One of the most athletic point guards in recent drafts, Smith has elite scoring potential. Last year he averaged 6.2 assists and has shown playmaking ability that can improve with the increased spacing in the NBA. A dangerous pick and roll point guard, Smith enters the perfect situation under revered coach Rick Carlisle, pick and roll finisher Noel, and pick and pop legend Nowitzki. Defensively, he would need to improve and there probably will be games where he gets benched for lack of defensive effort, but as one of the highest upside players in the draft entering a fantastic situation that could be a playoff team, Smith is one of the favorites for Rookie of the Year. With this being said, his player comparison is 1 time all star Devin Harris. Another athletic 6’3 point and roll point guard who was lauded as the future of the franchise at one point.
Offseason Priority
Retain Nerlens Noel. Noel is a restricted free agent after being traded to Dallas midseason, the big man with injury risks is a defensive monster with career averages of 1.6 steals and 1.5 blocks on only 27.6 minutes per game. With some development under Carlisle, Noel has the potential to be the best defensive center in the league. A 14–18 million a year contract would be perfect for Noel but with restricted free agency there is always the chance another team offers more money. Fortunately the center market this season is one where supply greatly outnumbers demand so Dallas has a good chance of retaining Noel.
Free Agency Tinder Superlike
Dion Waiters. This one hinges on how much money Nowitzki signs for, but he has a history of taking less money to help better the team. Waiters was awesome last season for the Heat, and the Mavericks are a low scoring team and are missing a 6th man type player who can score in bunches. At 25 he also fits the timeline with Barnes and Noel, and there is no telling how much longer Matthews can still produce as he has not been the same player after his Achilles tear. Waiters would likely cost a lot, but the benefits he brings to Dallas will match that. Carlisle is also not afraid to play small ball and there is no telling how much longer Nowitzki (at age 39) can continue producing so a lineup of Smith, Waiters, Matthews, Barnes, Noel could also be frequent and effective.
One Defining Stat
97.9 Points per game (last in the NBA). The Mavericks were the lowest scoring team in the league last season, and while their slow pace (92.2, 29th in the NBA) contributes to it, the team’s offense was one of the worst in the league. Having a more stable roster this season, giving Barnes another year to develop, and adding Dennis Smith Jr. should help the team in that category. Potentially bringing in a scorer like Waiters in free agency will also remedy this issue.
How far away are they
The Mavericks has a mixture of the young and the old, but nevertheless the team is trying to compete in the last few years of Nowitzki’s playing career. With that being said, a realistic ceiling for the team is a mid seed playoff appearance, and it won’t be until a few years later when the young players reach their peak before Dallas can realistically be in championship contention.
The Up And Under
Up: Barnes steps up and becomes a solid 25 points per game player with good defense. Noel stays healthy and becomes a top 5 defensive center and a dangerous roll man. Smith under Carlisle’s tutelage and great teammates plays decent defense and sets up his teammates well on top of great rim attacking, cumulating to winning rookie of the year. Mavericks make the playoffs.
Under: Age gets the best of Nowitzki, Barnes’ development stagnates, and Noel gets injured again. Smith is benched for extended periods of time due to poor defense. The team cannot score at all and in a fit, Mark Cuban trades all their young talent to acquire aging stars past their prime. Mavericks go full Dolan-mode, misses the playoffs anyways, low draft pick.
