Detroit Pistons Preview
Exhibit A on how reckless spending hurts a franchise.
Last season:
It was a season of disappointment for the Detroit Pistons as Stan Van Gundy’s crew followed up a promising 44–38 playoff season with a 37–45 effort. Expectations were high, but injuries to Reggie Jackson caused him to miss the first quarter of the season and put a halt to his development. When he did play it was an exhibition of selfishness that marginalized his teammates and stalled Van Gundy’s ball movement heavy offense. Taking a step back was not unique to Jackson, as the other franchise centerpiece Andre Drummond also failed to take the next step. After 16.2 points, a league leading 14.8 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game last season, all three categories suffered decline as Drummond finished this year with averages of 13.6, 13.8, and 1.1 respectively. Suspect rim protection is still a huge problem with his game and now with stagnating offensive growth, his status as a capable franchise centerpiece is less certain. The two core players, the foundations of the team, both disappointed which creates an environment difficult for role players to flourish. Van Gundy’s 1 in 4 out system requires floor spacing, but due to inadequate play from the stars, the role players Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris, and Marcus Morris all disappointed from beyond the arc (shooting 35%, 34.7%, and 33.1% respectively).
Draft From the Past:
12th pick Luke Kennard draws comparison to former Pistons guard Ben Gordon. Both players are combo guards with lights-out shooting ability. Both are also questionable defensively. Gordon’s stint with Detroit was often one of disappointment, as the team lacked a competent point guard and tried to force Rodney Stuckey into that role. His time in Detroit was also under first time head coach John Kuester, whose head coaching career ended with a player protest. Under a different system now, Kennard’s outside shooting (43.8% for Duke last year) will no doubt benefit the Pistons. His on-ball ability is also underrated and Kennard could play a 6-man Jamal Crawford-type role. It all comes down to whether his defense can become serviceable in the NBA to warrant minutes.
Offseason Priority:
Re-sign Caldwell-Pope. Caldwell-Pope was the Pistons’ best perimeter defender last season and his presence on the court allows the defensively weak Jackson to hide on defense. Although only shooting 35% on 3 pointers, Caldwell-Pope has shown potential to grow into a fantastic 3 and D player. There has been buzz for a max contract but Caldwell-Pope is a restricted free agent and Detroit has already announced that they plan on matching any offers, which will allow Caldwell-Pope to stay with the team.
The team also needs a backup shooting guard who can shoot from outside. Playing Stanley Johnson out of position at the 2 was disastrous last season. Ideally, the guard can also play some defense and have the ability to move the ball.
Free Agent Tinder Superlike:
Mike Dunleavy. Unfortunately the Pistons are capped out this offseason, meaning any signings would have to be for the minimum. They could potentially have a Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception if Aron Baynes opts out of his contract and Kentavious Caldwell Pope signs for less than the max, but neither scenarios are likely to happen so Pistons fans will most likely have to settle for minimum reinforcements to the squad. Dunleavy is a seasoned veteran with a decent 3 point stroke and average defense. He showed in his 30 games with the Hawks last season that he still has much to offer, shooting 42.9% from 3 point land and playing solid tough defense. He did sign for the Cavaliers last season which suggests ring-chasing-philia, but as you can see, he certainly was not having fun there:
One Defining Stat:
Of the 5 lineups most deployed by the Pistons, the only one to yield a positive plus/minus per 100 possessions is also the only one featuring neither of the franchise centerpieces. I would wager this is due less to Aron Baynes deserving a max contract than the poor play by Drummond and Jackson.
How Far Away Are They?
The Pistons are in a tough spot, they are over the cap, and building around players potentially not worth building around. The draft pick has to hit as he is their only major addition to the team. To improve, Reggie Jackson has to improve his passing, the role players need to improve their outside shooting, and Drummond has to improve his defense. It is difficult to see all of those factors swinging right, so most likely the Pistons will be a low-odds lottery team after this coming season.
The Up & Under:
The Up: Drummond finally realizes his potential and learns how to protect the rim. Reggie Jackson watches Russell Westbrook’s passing and attempts to pass more to stick it to the Thunder. Caldwell-Pope, Morris, and Harris all shoot a higher percentage outside, providing adequate floor spacing. Team additions also play well and the team starts resembling SVG’s finals Magic team, reaching 48 wins and a 2nd round playoff exit.
The Under: Jackson and Drummond show little to no improvement. Caldwell-Pope leaves, costing the team it’s best defender. Kennard gets abused on defense on a nightly basis, and along with mediocre defenders in Jackson, Drummond, and Harris, the team gives up 120 points per game. They go 27–55, missing the playoffs.
