Miami Heat Preview
Can you blow up a team that went 30–11 over their last 41 games?
Last season
Halfway through the season, Miami was a 11–30 team without their best player Chris Bosh looking ready to tank the season. What followed was a 13-game winning streak and the team going 30–11 over their latter half of the season to finish 41–41. The Heat finished 9th, losing the tiebreaker to the Chicago Bulls, and missed the playoffs. But the surge wasn’t to waste, it helped Miami solidify a reputation for strong work culture, a place will misfits in the NBA can revitalize their careers, and it helped coach Erik Spoelstra become revered around the league. All of this will help Miami this coming offseason and in the future beyond.
Looking at the team payroll, the disheartening end to Chris Bosh’s playing career is finalized and he will come off the books, giving Miami an extra $25.3 million in cap space to play with. How they choose to spend their cap space is the big question as key contributors to their rise such as Dion Waiters, James Johnson, and to a lesser extent Luke Babbitt are free agents after significantly outperforming their contracts this offseason. Josh Richardson and Rodney McGruder are also key contributors operating on minimum contracts that expire after next season and the season after that respectively. Willie Reed showed flashes of brilliance but his inability to play next to Whiteside along with the team drafting Bam Adebayo probably means he will leave. 2015 first round pick Justise Winslow is also slated to come back after missing most of the year from a shoulder injury.
Draft From the Past
14th pick Bam Adebayo draws comparison to former Heat player Brian Grant. Grant was a strong rebounder and defender who can finish around the rim well, all things Adebayo showed his year at Kentucky. Under Spoelstra, Adebayo has the ability to capitalize on his defensive potential and become a top rim protector. Recently, players out of Kentucky also hold a track record of surprising with skills they never displayed under Calipari, most recent examples being Karl Anthony Towns’ outside shooting and Devin Booker’s ability to create his own shot. Adebayo alleged showed an ability to hit jumpers which would take his offensive game to the next level.
Offseason Priority
There are two paths Miami can take, bring back the same crew or go for a star. Either path can propel Miami into contention in the East. Bringing Dion Waiters, James Johnson, and Luke Babbitt back would ensure the players that helped Miami to a 30–11 second half to the season would all return, with another year to gel together. Alternatively going for a star will also help Miami and allow them space to continue bargain bin shopping for players on value contracts.
Free Agency Tinder Superlike
Provided Miami goes down the path of signing a star: Gordon Hayward, this year’s prized free agent. Hayward would help Miami form their own big 3, and with players like Josh Richardson and Rodney McGruder on bargain contracts, the Miami lineup could feature Dragic, Winslow, Hayward, Adebayo, Whiteside with capable guys like Tyler Johnson, Richardson, McGruder, Okaro White, and Wayne Ellington on the bench. With this many quality wing players rotating on offense and defense, Miami could be a scary small-ball team.
One Defining Stat
Over the last 41 games of the season, Miami had the 2nd best net rating and record in the entire league. Injuries to key players early on hurt Miami’s playoff chances this year, but once players got back the team started picking up steam. With a half season of being the 2nd best team in the league, it isn’t unreasonable to see Miami continue building on that success and contend in the East.
How far away are they
They are close, perhaps 2nd in the East close, but getting over the Cavaliers, and more scarily, the Warriors will be a difficult challenge. But injuries happen, and if Dion Waiters 1: re-signs for cheap, and 2: plays like Dion Waiters thinks Dion Waiters plays, there is a chance!
The Up and Under
Up: A combination of other teams not believing in them and Dion Waiter and James Johnson loving Miami so much they come back for cheap. Justise Winslow returns with all his athleticism in tact. Adebayo proves he can, in fact, shoot. Miami signs Gordon Hayward, forms an incredibly scary Dragic, Winslow, Hayward, Johnson, Whiteside starting lineup with Waiters winning 6 man of the year. Break LeBron’s 7 year finals streak.
Under: Waiters and James Johnson both show that last season was a lucky fluke and the team resembles the first 41 games of last season more than the final 41 games. Winslow’s career is ruined from the shoulder injury. Team strikes out on outside help, and Tyler Johnson’s huge contract kicks in, capping the team in the near future. Adebayo proves he cannot play anything but undersized center. Dragic declines and Whiteside magically reverts back to pre-Heat Whiteside.
