Imagine. A world without Tropical Depressions.

Michael Lowry
The Weather Channel
5 min readAug 19, 2016

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Last week my home state of Louisiana recorded some of the worst flooding in its history. In three short days, enough water to fill Lake Okeechobee four times over fell across southern parishes north and west of New Orleans. Rivers poured through floodplains and across interstates, draining into towns and drowning suburban neighborhoods. Some 30,000 residents had to be rescued from the floodwaters (including some of my own family members) and more than a dozen people lost their lives. In Livingston Parish alone, it’s estimated three out of every four homes were destroyed in the worst flooding since Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This all happening in the middle of August not from a hurricane or from a named storm or even a classified tropical depression, but from a non-designated, nameless tropical low pressure system.

For seasoned residents living in the hurricane zone, this past week may have come as a surprise. A low pressure system along warm Gulf waters without a name was deadlier and more destructive than many hurricanes. Although the perception is that a name, classification, or category implies a certain impact, last week was a powerful example of why in reality it doesn’t. Some tropical depressions can be more impactful than some tropical storms, which can be more impactful than some hurricanes. It poses a real communications challenge, but the current system used to classify and name storms wasn’t designed for ease of use.

Consider first the designation of a Tropical Depression, the first official step to getting a hurricane. According to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical disturbance must first meet the following requirements before it’s christened a Tropical Depression:

  1. Must originate over tropical or subtropical waters
  2. Must have a completely closed and well defined wind circulation
  3. Must have warmer air at the low pressure center than away from it
  4. Must have strong and persistent thunderstorms near the low pressure center
  5. Cannot be attached to a front
  6. Maximum winds at any point in the system must be less than 39 mph

Notice in these requirements, there’s no mention of impacts. It’s all about the organization of the low pressure system and the strong winds (or lack thereof). It’s purely scientific.

But here’s the societal conundrum. In four years of communicating tropical weather forecasts to a national audience, I’ve spent a disproportionate amount of time attempting to explain what “well-defined” means, what constitutes persistent and robust thunderstorms, or why the weak low pressure area near the coast isn’t fully warm core. A full minute of my three minute report is spent explaining scientific intricacies that have little if any societal consequence.

Think about it. The National Weather Service doesn’t issue Tropical Depression Watches or Warnings. They also don’t try to forecast the number of Tropical Depressions prior to a hurricane season like they do tropical storms or hurricanes. Even the moniker “Tropical Depression” isn’t easily hashtaggable (is it #TropicalDepressionOne, #TropicalDepression1, #TD1, or #TD#1?). Sure, we get the infamous cone of uncertainty with a skinny black line and wind forecast attached, but is that sending the wrong message? Does it heighten awareness for all the wrong reasons?

As soon as the National Hurricane Center hits send, every broadcast meteorologist with a stake in the forecast (including yours truly) scrambles to be first to air with current winds, central pressure, and forecast track. With the tap of a finger, the cone of uncertainty makes the rounds on social media. Suddenly we’re all consumed with where it might head and how strong it might get. Rainfall and other related hazards are buried beneath the winds. But what happens when it doesn’t strengthen? What happens when it doesn’t graduate from its lowly Tropical Depression status?

And that’s the issue. Even though we tag tropical storms and hurricanes for their winds, Tropical Depressions by definition will never have severe or damaging winds. The greatest threat to life and property from a Tropical Depression will always be rainfall-induced flooding, as it is from strong tropical disturbances like the one that drenched Louisiana last weekend. So why the distinction? It’s not a necessary step to tropical storm status. In fact, some tropical disturbances skip the Tropical Depression stage and jump immediately to tropical storm status. The organization of the surface low pressure does make a Tropical Depression easier to track but just because we can track it, does it mean we should? Since Tropical Depressions are still organizing, the heavy rainfall often falls well away from the designated “center” anyway. Consider Tropical Depression Nineteen in 1970, the fifth wettest U.S. tropical cyclone on record. It brought over 40 inches of rainfall to parts of Puerto Rico without ever passing within 200 miles of the island. A forecast track for a Tropical Depression may be more hindrance than help.

So imagine. A world without Tropical Depressions. It’s provocative but that’s the idea. Consider it a thought exercise for all of us. Most of the nomenclature and classifications we use today came about in the 1950s or 1960s. Two generations is a long time. Maybe it’s worth asking ourselves whether the short attention span of a sound-bite stricken, 140-character, 21st century society might benefit from a second look.

There’s a community of social scientists out there with far better answers to these questions than I, but we’ll never know the answers unless we ask the questions. Why are tropical storms predicated on 39 mph winds? Why do we warn of 39 mph winds over land for tropical storms but not for strong thunderstorms (warnings for thunderstorms are issued for winds of 58 mph or higher)? Is the inconsistent criteria confusing the public? The questions aren’t limited to Tropical Depressions.

What happened in Louisiana last week was extreme, but it’s by no means isolated. A week prior to Louisiana, torrential rains from a weakening tropical storm drowned parts of eastern Mexico, killing 45 in deadly mudslides and landslides. Two days prior to that, an unnamed, unclassified tropical disturbance caused severe flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic. Tropical floods are happening every week as we belittle the “quiet” Atlantic. We measure tropical activity strictly by winds when 90% of tropical cyclone deaths are water related. There’s a disconnect, and we owe it to those lives washed away by the next Tropical Depression or disturbance to ask what brought us here in the first place.

So pause for a minute and try to imagine. A world without Tropical Depressions…

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Michael Lowry
The Weather Channel

Strategic Planner @FEMA. Atmospheric Scientist w/ ocean background + passion for climate. Former @NWSNHC, #UCAR, @weatherchannel, #DoD, @FLSERT. Posts my own.