The Resurgence of Taliban: What Has To Be Done On New Delhi’s Part?

Fears sometimes turn out to be true and it seems to be happening in Afghanistan.

It has only been a few days since the US started pulling out its troops from Afghanistan, and the Taliban has already started engaging in violence on the streets of Afghanistan, which refreshes the still-prominent memory of a phase where Afghanistan was in the grip of Taliban Terror.

The Aggression
In the blink of an eye, the situation in Afghanistan has become alarming with the Taliban capturing a key district of northern Afghanistan, Dam. On May 9, the bombing of a girl’s school killed about 85 people, and though the Taliban has denied the responsibility for the attack, the speculations regarding their involvement remain high. In the past few days, Afghanistan has witnessed an initial phase of a terror rampage. With the news of the withdrawal of the US troops, terror, and the use of violence were almost expected. It was anticipated that the Taliban would use all their resources to seize the power and establish an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan. All these events are surely symptoms of bloody unrest that may take place in the coming time and a more tough time for Afghan Forces is yet to come. As gradually the ground relaxes from US troops, the Taliban will try to pressurize the environment in Afghanistan. A possible prosperous future was in the sight of Afghan People but the Taliban’s attempt to rise again and violence by terror groups has overshadowed the hopes of the Afghan People and rather inculcated panic and terror in their minds.

Gear Up, New Delhi
Initial warning signs have now started to show in Afghanistan. It’s now time for New Delhi to get more serious about Afghanistan. India has some crucial strategic interests in Afghanistan, and New Delhi can’t afford them to be compromised or affected. Pakistan will be a secret beneficiary in this unrest as historically Pakistan’s ISI played a major role in giving a strong establishment to Talibani(s) in Afghanistan during the Afghan Civil War and initial periods of Soviet invasion in Afghanistan. Pakistan even recognized and gave legitimacy to the Taliban regime which was established in the 90s. With its hands in Afghanistan, Pakistan, through its strategic depth policy cultivated and expanded its terror bases and resources to its violent non-state actors which later became instrumental in cultivating its terror doctrine against India. Not to forget that the 90s was a period when Kashmir witnessed a rise in terror and gradually till mid 90s terror in Kashmir reached its peak.

Post decline of the Taliban regime and establishment of the Civilian Government, India gradually increased its ties with Afghanistan and deepened its cooperation with Afghanistan. Adding to that, India also cultivated a strategic interest in accessing the central Asian market and energy resources. For decades, New Delhi exercised its soft power in Afghanistan by implementing the developmental and cooperative approach towards Afghanistan. However, considering the present sense of the environment in Afghanistan, New Delhi has to pull up its socks and get more serious about the country, because the onset tremors of terror will not only affect the strategic interests of New Delhi but will severely compromise the national security domain of our country, as the threat does not come from Taliban only; the major threat comes from Pakistan, which is one of our deepest concerns. Islamabad has its stakes and covert relationship with terror groups and the Taliban which will surely be aimed to disrupt Kashmir, and most importantly, undermine and manipulate New Delhi’s regional power image in the South Asian Subcontinent.

Islamabad’s Secret Watch
Without a doubt, Islamabad is secretly observing these developments and must have covertly started to build its footprints in Afghanistan as it did during the Civil War. The most important observation and smell of suspicion come from the recent posture of Islamabad. Suddenly, Islamabad is showing softness, peace and trying to become a helping hand during the second wave of COVID-19 in India.

Why has Islamabad suddenly become too soft?
It can be speculated that this might be deceptive; recent soft statements and becoming a helping hand are good ingredients to show a cooperative image at the front but what is cooking behind is the real question.

History gives us enough evidence that whenever Islamabad has shown one hand of friendship, it has always backstabbed New Delhi from the other hand. Islamabad knows this fact very well that post abrogation of Article 370, the room or space of terror got reduced and India continued offensive measures at the border against terror groups, which had also hit Islamabad’s terror plans hard. Islamabad has now got some opportunity in hand to give some trouble to New Delhi for which they have to covertly rebuild relations with the Taliban. Primarily, Islamabad will take two folded counter approaches to threaten and trouble New Delhi (Strategic Depth Policy):

1. Security
2. Rebuild insurgents in Afghanistan and push them in Kashmir with the aim to expand and shift terror bases and camps on the Afghanistan border;
3. Political and strategic problem;
4. Keeping New Delhi at bay from the Afghanistan government by increasing its political influence and using insurgent influence as an instrument to pressurize the Afghanistan government, thereby further compromising New Delhi’s strategic interests in Afghanistan.

All these are only possible if Islamabad succeeds in wielding Political influence and the Taliban succeeds in staging itself as a powerful force in Afghanistan. Chances of both seem to be slim but no one knows in today’s contemporary world when the tangent of international politics changes and power flips.

New Delhi’s Strategies
Considering the development of the current situation, India has to play out in the field, New Delhi should have the following countermeasures:

1. Intelligence and covert operations

New Delhi has to start investing in intelligence gathering, Covert operations in Afghanistan especially covertly helping and re-hardening of the Northern Alliance Force in Afghanistan to fight against ISI-backed groups and Taliban (if the situation goes loud in the coming time) . This will help in weakening the position of ISI-backed groups and Taliban. Additionally, Intelligence gathering on political developments in power corridors of Afghanistan to keep a check on Pakistan’s political maneuvers towards Kabul or any political adversary.

2. Deepening trust and supporting Kabul government: Maintaining its soft power
Amidst chaos and terror in Afghanistan, New Delhi has to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Kabul Government and deepen its trust by increasing its cooperative and developmental approach towards Kabul (India’s soft power in Afghanistan) to counter Islamabad’s political influence against India. Moreover, the role of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) is also crucial in this process in voicing against adverse developments (terror violence) at the international platform and further supporting Afghanistan at various international forums to strengthen Afghanistan’s government’s position internationally.

Originally published at https://www.woodwardjournal.com.