An early season snapshot of the NBA
Are the Lakers a Bad Good Team or a Good Bad Team?
A flame-throwing rookie, combined with their top three has given a whole new meaning to the game Connect-4
Usually, I watch the first quarter of the season before making my observations on the state of the NBA, but one player has changed my mind.
This guy.
His name is pronounced the same way as that kids’ game, but I made a subtle change.
Due to injuries, Dalton Knecht’s playing time increased to over 33 minutes per game the last four games. He has scored 24.3 points per game, while shooting an impossible 67.7% from beyond the arc on high volume.
In three of those games, he ignited his team.
- At home against an injury-depleted Memphis squad, the Lakers were down 87–78 at the end of the third quarter when Knecht caught fire. He made a turnaround mid-range jumper in traffic, hit all 3 of his 3-point shots, and then made the most surprising play of the game. Initiating a fast break, the rookie sharp shooter showed some dribbling skill to get by a couple of defenders and attacked the paint. Everyone in the building thought he would try to score at the rim. After all, he had scored four of the last five baskets made by the team. Instead, he delivered a perfect lob pass to backup center Christian Koloko and the crowd exploded. Knecht almost single-handedly created an 18–9 run that tied the game.
- Three days later in New Orleans, the Lakers were in deep trouble on the second night of a back-to-back. Trailing by 10 to start the second half, Knecht hit four straight 3s to fuel an 18–7 run that gave the Lakers a 1-point lead. In the fourth quarter, he made the surprise play of the game with the Lakers trailing by 1. After receiving a pass in the left corner Knecht attacked a close-out by a defender trying to contest his jump shot. As he drove to the rim, Knecht was surrounded by Pelican defenders. In this situation, most role players force the shot and turn the ball over, allowing opponents to score in transition. Instead, Knecht wove his way under the basket and made the most difficult pass through traffic, finding Austin Reaves on the right wing. Reaves then swung the ball to a wide open LeBron James, whose 3-pointer put the Lakers back in the lead. Knecht scored a career high 27 points and made 5 of 10 3-pointers, but that hockey assist was the play that really won the game.
- Last night, against an over-matched Utah team, Knecht tied an NBA rookie record, hitting nine 3-pointers and scoring a career high 37 points. He hit 5 straight 3s, 6 out of 7 total, and got fouled by a panicking defender to extend a 14-point lead to a 25-point margin.
With the Lakers playing Knecht-3, they have won six games in a row and sit one-half game away from the #1 seed in the West.
In that time, they have the #2 ranked offense, and a net rating of +8.4 (#5). Their 8.5 point differential projects to winning 64 games this season.
Under their new coach, JJ Redick, the Lakers have transformed their offense, with LeBron James playing point guard, and Anthony Davis put in a more dynamic scoring and play-making position at the free throw line.
But he has also shown a brilliant understanding of roster balancing. Unlike his predecessor, Redick has turned D’Angelo Russell into a sixth-man to run the bench unit offense. The Lakers are 6–0 since that change, adding a bigger, more athletic, defensive-minded guard (Cam Reddish or Max Christie) to join Austin Reaves in the back court. Instead of Reaves guarding the other team’s best wing player, he can play more team defense and focus on offense, now shooting 40% from beyond the arc.
The other big change has been the way Redick uses Knecht, who he has already called a top 1% shooter. Knecht is a bigger, more athletic version of Redick — a great shooter who runs around screens and causes panic in opposing defenders. More than that, however, Knecht can attack the rim, and with two years of college experience as his team’s offensive leader, he can make passing reads rarely seen in rookies.
With all these offensive improvements, the Lakers aren’t turning the ball over (#2), so opponents aren’t scoring points off turnovers (#3). Last year, the team was #19 in turnovers and #19 in opponent points off turnovers.
But the team has the same weaknesses.
Even during the wining streak, they are a bottom-10 team in giving up fast break points and points in the paint.
The one bright area on defense is they are not bleeding second chance points.
Like they did at historically bad levels under Darvin Ham.
Could that have something to do with not pretending Taurean Prince is an All-Star-level small forward?
Apparently, when your coach puts bigger, stronger, athletic, aggressive and energetic players on the floor, it translates into securing defensive rebounds. What a concept.
Having said all that, I still have to ask the question.
Are the Lakers are a good bad team or a bad good team?
Here are the pros and cons.
PRO: The Lakers went 3–2 against playoff-level teams to start the year.
CON: They couldn’t win on the road and got embarrassed in Cleveland.
PRO: The Lakers beat San Antonio on the road. Then the Spurs beat the #1 seeded Oklahoma City Thunder last night, despite missing three starters.
CON: The Lakers needed Anthony Davis to go nuclear (40 pts, 12 reb, 2 blk, 2 of 4 on 3-pointers) to squeeze out a win.
PRO: The Lakers have built double-digit leads in each of their wins.
CON: They’ve blown large leads against Toronto (+25), Philadelphia (+19), and Utah (+22), forcing their superstars to play until the end. It’s unsustainable for the 39-year-old James to play over 35 minutes per game.
PRO: The Lakers still have two of the top 10 players in the NBA and excellent shooting to spread the floor.
CON: Based on 5-man lineup data, when LeBron and AD share the court, they have a negative net rating (-1.5 in 312 minutes).
PRO: James and Davis have had excellent luck staying on the floor, with Davis missing only one game so far this season.
CON: The Lakers have no depth at backup center (Hayes and Woods are injured) and may not ever see the return of their best perimeter defender (Jarred Vanderbilt).
The answer is… I still don’t know.
We should learn the answers soon, as they are scheduled to play a young, super-athletic Orlando Maic, their bette-noir, the Denver Nuggets, and the Western Conference favorite Oklahoma City Thunder in the next 10 days.
If the Lakers can beat those teams — especially Denver — and continue beating bad teams, Los Angeles could emerge with a 14–5 record and lead the Western Conference in the standing by the end of the month.
If so, they will have to be considered a possible contender.
All because of a detail-oriented, driven, competent coach and his 23-year-old rookie shooting phenom.
