An All-Star Break Deep Dive on a Frustrating Cubs First Half
Halfway through a disappointing year, where do we go from here?
AROUND THE INFIELD
Kris Bryant
Kris Bryant is still an All Star, no matter what MLB says. He’s top-2 on the Cubs in runs, hits, doubles, triples, homers, steals, walks, batting average, and OPS and is still on pace for 30 doubles and 30 homers. Bryant has struggled of late, and June was his worst month since his rookie year. Perhaps part of that was hitting in the 3-hole, often without Rizzo’s bat behind him. He hit just .191 in 14 games there, though he had pretty miserable BABIP luck during that stretch too.
KB’s batting average goes up significantly each time he faces a pitcher in a game, the sign of a smart batter that is figuring things out quickly. He hits worst against relievers, which makes sense since opponents are putting their very best option out there against him.
If it feels like Bryant just hasn’t been the MVP this year, that’s probably because he’s hit just 7-of-54 in high-leverage situations, a miserable .130 average. A big chunk of that is just miserable luck with an awful .140 BABIP, less than half of what is expected on balls in play (around .300 for most hitters). Going 2-of-26 against the hated Cardinals feels especially hurty. Those numbers should bounce back in the second half.
Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo struggled early in the season but was the Cubs MVP during June. He leads Chicago in hits, doubles, and home runs and has played all but one game for the Cubs. June saw a big uptick in Rizzo’s BABIP luck and the hits and average followed, though the overall BABIP is still down from Rizzo’s career. Some of that may reflect the shift, but that’s not exactly new to Rizzo, so it’s probably still just poor luck, a theme for Cubs hitters. Rizzo’s power has been great, and he has the best strikeout and walk rates of his career. He’s really struggled on the road so far, hitting just .210, and that’s where most of his bad luck has come, with a miserable .180 BABIP.
And then of course there’s Leadoff Rizzo, on pace for an historic 62-homer 150-RBI season and the greatest leadoff year of all time. If nothing else, Chicago can always go back to that again.
What Chicago might need from Rizzo more than anything else is leadership. Rizzo is the guy that’s been there for all the ups and downs, and he’s older than most of the other Cubs. Last year Rizzo was the one turning to Grandpa Ross and Dex with jitters in the biggest moments, but those two are gone now and this young roster needs Rizzo’s jovial spirit and experience in a leadership role moving forward. You could see how much fun the team was having with Leadoff Rizzo out there, maybe for the first time really all season.
Addison Russell
Addy is almost perfectly in sync with his rookie season across the board and right on pace for the 13 homers and 54 RBI he had then. For now, last year’s 21 HR and 95 RBI continue to look like the outlier. Russell’s defense and dWAR are even better than ever, though. He might just be an awesome fielding shortstop who isn’t a huge hitter, and that’s still valuable.
Then again, Russell has obviously struggled with a lot of off-field struggles this year so it’s hard to know how reliable his numbers are this season. He’s especially struggled at home with a .163 batting average. That could be because he feels extra pressure around home with everything going on, though it’s also where his BABIP has been very unlucky at .184.
For now, Addison Russell is looking less like a future-MVP 5-hitter and more like a Gold Glove 8-hole guy.
Javy Baez
Baez continues to hit really well this year, and his power has especially picked up. Javy’s isolated power is a career high right now even after cooling down from a huge May. He’s been the most reliable Cubs bat outside of the big two, which might say as much about the rest of the team as it does about Javy’s improvement.
Weirdly, Baez’s defense has really fallen off this year, with a dWAR just under half last year’s pace. Part of that is because Baez has played a lot of shortstop this season. A shortstop usually compiles stronger defensive numbers, but Baez is just better and more comfortable at second. Last season Baez was +13 in total zone fielding runs above average, a monster season. This year he’s -7, including a drop from +5 to -4 in his time at second base. Those numbers were always due to regress a bit but that’s a mammoth drop. Playing at shortstop may also be messing with Baez at the plate. As a shortstop, Baez is hitting just .183 with only 3 RBI, even though that’s about one-third of his overall plate appearances. It’s just not a spot he seems comfortable.
Willson Contreras
Contreras has almost an identical number of games and plate appearances as he did in last year’s rookie season, and his numbers are similar across the board. That’s a good thing. He was already hitting well last season for a catcher, and there’s been a huge improvement in his defense. Last year Contreras was a defensive zero, as seen in his 0.1 dWAR. This year he’s at 0.9 already, a gigantic improvement. A catcher that hits .270 with 20 homers and 75 RBI while playing good defense is typically an All Star, and that’s the Contreras pace we’re getting right now.
Contreras is third on the Cubs in WAR and has been one really steady guy in a season of turmoil, consistent from month to month. After bouncing around in defense last year, he’s been almost exclusively a catcher this season. That’s good because his bat is more powerful at catcher than as a corner infielder or outfielder, but it’s also a bit worrisome that Contreras is the only capable catcher on the roster with Ross and Montero both gone. He’s a young player that’s already played as much as he did last regular season, had a long playoff run, and is catching almost every game. It’s reasonable expect him to wear down a bit as the season drags on.
HEAD TO THE OUTFIELD
Jason Heyward
Remember when Heyward was back? The new Heyward seems to be back again — the guy who, like Russell, might just be a superstar in the field and not much at the plate. Heyward’s as good as ever in the outfield so far, on pace for an absurd 2.5 dWAR, but his oWAR is still almost nothing and way lower than his time in St. Louis. Heyward’s walk rate is a career-low 7%, and he’s hitting just .175 while ahead in the count, when his numbers should be at their best. That paints the picture of an over-aggressive hitter, trying too hard to find something that works at the plate. Heyward’s power has returned, but it’s the game to game hits that are still missing. If he can just quit pressing so much, take the simple single or walk at times, he may be better off.
Kyle Schwarber
Baby Babe is back in the big leagues after a stint in the minors. Like Contreras, Schwarber has played almost the exact same number of games and plate appearances as his rookie season. He’s hit for similar power with nearly identical walks (good) and strikeouts (bad), but the one big difference is his terrible batting average, .178 at the break. It still looks like that might just be a heap of bad luck. Schwarber’s rookie BABIP was .293, about average, but he’s way down at .200 this season. It’s possible the shift has solved him but more likely he’s just getting a ton of bad luck and needs to be patient for things to even out. It’s a tired story hearing that for so many Cubs hitters, but that doesn’t mean it’s untrue.
Schwarber’s abysmal May seems to be a thing of the past, but he’s not exactly lighting it on fire the other months, with just a .200 average the rest of the season. One area he’s really struggled is against power pitchers, with an abysmal .095 average at the plate. It’s bad news if big-time pitchers can just throw it right past a power hitter, so that’s something to keep an eye on.
The thing with Schwarber is he’s useless in the field that he has to be really good as a hitter to be valuable. He hasn’t had the major gaffes we saw in the playoffs his rookie season, but Schwarber is still on pace for almost -2 dWAR and basically at 0 oWAR. That’s obviously not going to work. Typically a starter is around 2 WAR and an All Star is at 5, while an MVP is around 8 or higher. For Schwarber, that -2 dWAR means he has to hit as an All Star to be a useful starter, or hit like an MVP to have an All-Star season. That’s always going to be a problem and why a trade to the American League (where he can play designated hitter) will always be a possibility.
Like it or not, Schwarber remains the key sticking point in the lineup. If Heyward and Russell are going to be zeros in the lineup and Baez and center field are just going to be average, the Cubs really need a big bat in left to round out the lineup. He’s the key to the second half and moving forward.
Albert Almora Jr
Almora has played in 73 games but has only half as many plate appearances as a full-time player. He continues to absolutely crush lefties with a .352 average and .999 OPS. He’s also killed as a pinch hitter with a .409 average, probably in part because Maddon is cherry picking good matchups against lefties. Almora is hitting a blistering .400 while ahead in the count too. Those are all great, and Almora has been a pleasant surprise so far, but he’s one Cub who’s had the luck in his favor and should probably expect some regression. Defensively, Almora hasn’t been quite as valuable this season, so that’s where Chicago could use a bounce back.
OFF THE BENCH
John Jay
Like Almora, Jay has played in 75 games but also has half the plate appearances of a full-time player. That makes sense, since either he or Almora is usually in the game. Jay has been exactly what the Cubs hoped for. He’s hitting .300, taking a lot of pitches, and walking a lot with decent outfield defense. He’ll never replace Fowler as a clubhouse leader, but he’s been a great signing so far.
Ian Happ
Happ is having a monster rookie season. His 13 home runs are third on the team, and he’s sixth on the entire Cubs roster in WAR despite playing in only 51 of 88 games. A full season of Happ projects to 45 homers, immense power for a player so young. Of course those numbers are almost certain to regress over time, but it sure is fun for now.
If Happ is here to stay, he could be the big bat the Cubs have needed in the lineup — but is there a permanent spot for him? Baez is most valuable at second, and there may not be enough outfield at-bats for Happ. Could this be the perfect time to trade a player whose value could hardly be higher? If that perfect pitcher is out there, we’d have to trust Theo to take a shot.
Ben Zobrist
It’s telling that Zobrist is the eleventh Cubs hitter, and that you might not have even noticed he was hitting. He’s really struggled. Zobrist’s walk rate has regressed after an insanely high season but is still around his career average, though his strikeout rate is a career high — normal for a player at BenZo’s age. Zobrist is batting just .214 and an awful .149 against lefties where he’s normally at his best, though both of those numbers have been hammered by bad BABIP luck. June was particularly brutal for BenZo with just a .132 average and only five hits the entire month. It’s been bad.
Of course Zobrist has been hurt, which makes sense for an older player coming off a season with the most plate appearances of his career at age 35. This regression was always going to come. But where is Zobrist’s value on this team? The Cubs need Baez at second to give him the most value, and Happ is playing much better as the jackknife replacement. Zobrist could be a possible answer at leadoff, where he’s had good numbers, but there might not be a spot in the field for him. For now we just need him to get healthy. Beyond that, he might need to be the first bat off the bench for a team whose bench has gotten pretty thin this season.
Miguel Montero
BYE MIGGY.
THE PITCHING STAFF
Jon Lester
Lester has not been Peak Lester, but he probably hasn’t been as bad as you think. He’s been good not great. Lester is just 5–6 with a 4.25 ERA but that’s only after his awful start against Pittsburgh heading into the break. Otherwise his ERA has been steady in the 3s all season, good but not great for his career. His strikeout and walk rate are both his worst since 2013 — still striking out as many guys per nine innings but not pitching as deep into games. Lester’s sporting a 2.97 K/BB ratio after being over 4 the last three years and he’s already taken more losses and allowed more runs than all of last season.
Lester is still devastating to lefties but is getting hit hard by right-handed hitters. He was steadily rounding into shape in June before two bad July starts, but don’t worry too much about those. His laughably unlucky .522 BABIP from those two outings is just bad luck piling up all at once.
One interesting note on Lester is that he’s struggling with runners on, and the numbers reflect it. Opponents are batting .318 with men on base, bolstered by a .413 BABIP. That’s way up from Lester’s career with men on, allowing a .249 average usually. It gets even worse with just a runner on first, Lester’s bugaboo. Opponents are hitting .386 with a man on first with an absurd .525 BABIP. Is that a sign that Lester is really unlucky? Maybe. But it might also show that Cubs infielders are uncomfortable or out of position to protect Lester’s first-base blindspot with a runner on. It’s a problem. Lester’s .321 BABIP overall is unlucky but might not just be bad luck anymore.
Jake Arrieta
Arrieta is struggling, but you already know that. He has seven losses, two off a career-high, and his 4.35 ERA is easily his worst since leaving Baltimore. Jake’s WHIP is usually sub-one but an ugly 1.303 this season. His strikeout rate is still good but his walks remain high after the leap they took last year, and he’s not pitching as deep into games. Early in the season, Arrieta had a slew of bad BABIP luck. That’s evened out since, but his K/BB ratio has plummeted from 4.18 in April and May to just 1.72 since. He’s just not in control like he used to be.
Unlike Lester, Arrieta’s numbers get better with runners on base — but that may be its own problem since he seems to be ignoring runners and giving up a lot of steals (cut to Miguel Montero nodding vigorously somewhere). That’s a joke, but also not. Turns out Jake’s ERA is a full point higher and his K/BB rate a full point lower when pitching to Contreras instead of Montero, and now Montero is gone. Arrieta’s also pitching around the edges a lot, which is visible when you watch. That means a lot more walks, especially with guys already on base, and it’s preventing him from getting deep into the game. It’s also led to a league-leading 13 wild pitches.
If you’re an optimist, there is a bit of reason for hope with Jake. Arrieta is a second-half pitcher that gets better each month moving forward, peaking late in the year (boosted by that insane second half two summers or 400 years ago, depending on how you feel). So he should get better, and his bad BABIP luck should continue to even out going forward. Arrieta also has barely pitched at Wrigley, with six home starts to 12 road starts. Old Jake used to be our guy on the road, but the reality is that Arrieta has better numbers at Wrigley than any other stadium. So with a little bit of luck, some more home starts, and that usual second half surge, maybe Arrieta can give us a little more magic before we say goodbye this offseason.
John Lackey
Speaking of saying goodbye, John Lackey everyone! Lackey leads the league in home runs allowed with 24, almost a career high. His nine losses are among his most ever. Lackey too is walking way too many players despite a good strikeout rate, leading to short outings and extended bullpen work. Lackey’s 5.20 ERA is terrible and the second worst in a long career. In his only worse year, he had Tommy John surgery immediately following the season and missed a year. Lackey’s 5.66 FIP is miserable, by far the worst of his career. He’s getting hammered by lefties. And maybe worst of all, he’s been the one consistent pitcher. Consistently terrible. Lackey didn’t come here to get a haircut. But it might be time to give him one.
Kyle Hendricks
Hendricks hasn’t pitched since June 4th, so there’s not anything new to report since our last check-in. His ERA, FIP, and walks are up, but it’s hard to know how much of that has to do with him playing through injury. Hendricks has had six weeks off now. That’s a good thing for a guy who pitched more than ever in his career last year. Hopefully he’s whole when he does return.
Eddie Butler
Butler has been the one silver lining among Cubs starters, but it’s probably a mirage. He’s striking out just 5.1 players per nine innings and walking 4.6, both poor and leading to a bad 1.11 K/BB ratio. Butler’s .265 BABIP shows the luck has been in his favor and is way better than in his career, though some of that could be a switch from thin Colorado air to Wrigley and a good defense. Butler has been brilliant the second time through the lineup. Maybe this is a guy that’s learning, and there’s something there. It’s more likely he’s been a pleasant surprise as a short-term fill-in.
Mike Montgomery
You’re probably frustrated with Montgomery, but you shouldn’t be. Yes, he’s 1–6, but Montgomery has had a lot of hard luck and has been a real inning eater for a staff that’s badly needed it. Montgomery has pitched more innings than Hendricks or Butler, has only allowed four home runs all season, and is striking guys out. The 35 walks in 69.2 innings are not great, but the rest has been pretty solid.
Is Montgomery better as a starter or reliever? His 5.40 ERA in six starts versus 2.50 as a reliever seem to make that clear but may be misleading. Montgomery’s K/BB leaps from 1.22 to 2.50 as a starter, perhaps suggesting he improves when he’s able to fully prepare and start a game, and his bad ERA may be in part to a very poor BABIP as a starter. His numbers haven’t really dropped as he gets deeper into the game and pitch counts rise, with one big exception being his bad start after his only 100-pitch game. He’s not ready to go that deep into games yet, but he may be ready to keep starting.
The Bullpen
The bullpen has been awesome and completely saved the team. Even an average bullpen year would’ve left the Cubs season in shambles. Wade Davis and Carl Edwards Jr. have both been All-Star worthy, and Brian Duensing has been almost as good. Rondon and Strop have been solid, and Uehara has been great on proper rest. Despite pitching much less, Cubs relievers have the top three WAR totals on the pitching staff along and seven of the top nine. Arrieta, Lester, and Lackey all have negative WAR. The bullpen has saved the pitching staff.
BIG PICTURE OUTLOOK
It’s been a long season, and November 2 feels so long ago, but it’s still just as real if you close your eyes and remember it all.
This season has been anything but a dream. The team just feels off. It feels like the entire team is 2016 Jason Heyward. We keep waiting and waiting for things to click, thinking maybe this is the game or maybe this one, but it’s mostly just a lot of annoying ups and downs. But it’s not as bad as it all feels.
The Cubs are 5.5 games back from Milwaukee, but the Brewers aren’t actually that good. They’ve played worse than their record and benefited from a soft schedule, so it’s probably the old enemy in St. Louis that remains the biggest threat. By second-order wins (substituting projected runs for actual runs scored), the Cubs are best in the division. By third-order (second-order plus an adjustment for opponents), the Cubs are tied with the Cardinals, who have also had a tough schedule. Milwaukee ranks third by almost any measure — except the one that counts. The Brewers have played an easy schedule so far and have played five more home games than the Cubs. They should regress if the Cubs can just pull it together.
If the Cubs do make the playoffs, it looks like Washington would be the opponent. Last year we whined because we had to face a tough wildcard team in the volatile first round, but this year we’d benefit since the Dodgers will likely have to face one of the other top National League records with an NL West wildcard. Washington has literally won one playoff series in franchise history, and that was 36 years ago in Montreal.
Both second- and third-order standings rate the Cubs as a 47–41 team instead of 43–45. That’s not a huge difference, but it sure would feel a lot better. That would put Chicago on an 87-win pace. That’s not exactly last year’s Cubs (or this year’s 113-win analytics-pace Dodgers), but it’s probably a playoff team in a terrible division. But playoffs does not mean another World Series run. Last year’s Cubs were on a 120-win analytics-pace at the break. That’s about 40% better than right now.
Anything can happen in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean it’s totally random. Chicago would need to win three road series against better teams to defend its title. That’s always possible in baseball, but don’t pretend we’d have just as good a chance as last year. Last year’s Cubs were so good that they probably had something like a 35+% chance at winning it all. This year’s team has about a 5% at winning it (though FanGraphs is more optimistic)— and that’s only if they actually make the playoffs. They probably have closer to a 2% chance right now.
This is not the team to trade Gleyber Torres for a big arm and go all-in. This is a team to ride out to the finish line and hope you get lucky, or maybe even a team to consider selling off to build for a better team next year. Wade Davis could net a return almost as good as Torres. Arrieta would be a nice arm on an expiring deal for a playoff-bound team. John Jay would be a useful outfield bat for most teams. Lackey could be a seasoned fourth starter for some desperate playoff team. None of these guys probably factor into Chicago’s long-term plans, so any of them should be available if another team is willing to pay. Losing Arrieta and Davis would probably drop the Cubs’ World Series chances from 2% to 1.5%. That’s a 25% difference, but the odds are already so low that it’s negligible, especially if Chicago can finally find that young cost-controlled starting pitcher it’s coveted for so long.
And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past. This Cubs team is frustrating but should be better the second half.
And hey, even if it isn’t — flags fly forever.
TL;DR — It’s not as bad as it looks… but it’s not really that great either.
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