Closing Time: Who Will Close For the Cubs If Wade Davis Doesn’t Re-Sign?

It isn’t a coincidence that most of Major League Baseball’s best teams have a dominant closer.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have Kenley Jansen (1.28 ERA), the Boston Red Sox have Craig Kimbrel (1.33 ERA), the Washington Nationals obtained Brandon Kintzler prior to the trade deadline (2.40 ERA), the New York Yankees have a now broken (?) Aroldis Chapman with Dellin Betances (2.11 ERA) and David Robertson (2.19 ERA) sharing closing duties now, and the Cleveland Indians have Bryan Shaw (3.36 ERA) and Andrew Miller (1.65) who they will assuredly use if Shaw doesn’t improve.
Even fringe contenders like the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates have Corey Knebel (1.36 ERA) and Felipe Rivero (1.29 ERA) respectively to hold down the fort at the end of games.
Contenders without a dominant closer are quickly labeled as destined for postseason disappointment. Can the Houston Astros really trust Ken Giles in the playoffs? How about the Arizona Diamondbacks and their 40-year-old closer Fernando Rodney? Greg Holland’s ERA in away games is worse than in home games, so perhaps Coors Field isn’t the only reason for his mediocre (for a closer) numbers. If true that puts a dent in the Colorado Rockies plans to contend.
The Cubs are lucky because they are one of the contending teams that have a dominant closer. Veteran right hander Wade Davis recently tied the Chicago Cubs franchise record with 26 consecutive saves and has a 2.27 ERA on the season.
Enjoy Davis’ brilliance while you still can though because his contract expires after this season. However, this doesn’t necessarily spell doom for the Cubs moving forward because of all the in-house options they can insert at closer.
Hector Rondon
People forget how good Hector Rondon was when he was the Cubs full-time closer just over a year ago. Having the luxury of watching Aroldis Chapman and Wade Davis stalk the mound can have that effect.
In five seasons with this team, Rondon has a 3.32 ERA and 77 saves which checks in at №6 on the Cubs all-time save leaders list. However, examining his Cubs career as a whole doesn’t do him justice because a few down years have hiked up his ERA despite an extended stretch of pure dominance.
From the beginning of the 2014 season until the Cubs acquired Chapman on July 25, 2016, Rondon posted a 2.01 ERA across 170.1 innings while striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings and stranding 77.9 percent of runners that reached base or that he inherited from a previous pitcher. If you split these numbers across the individual seasons, the results are even better.
Prior to the Chapman acquisition in late July last season, Rondon posted a 1.95 ERA and went 18-for-22 in save opportunities in 37 innings as the Cubs closer.
In 2015, he was even better. Across 70 innings, Rondon recorded a 1.67 ERA and went 30-for-34 in save opportunities. In the 2015 playoffs, he made five appearances and collected two saves while accumulating a 3.60 ERA.
Unfortunately, Rondon has recently been the victim of the rich getting richer. The Cubs relegated him to a setup role after replacing him with two of the best closers in the game for two seasons in a row. Since losing his closing spot permanently, Rondon has experienced a mixed bag of success.
Rondon battled a triceps injury last August and then struggled to reciprocate his past form on the mound. However, this season he’s had extended periods of brilliance once again. Rondon pulled together an eight-game scoreless appearance streak in late June until mid-July and another five-game scoreless streak in late July that bled into early August.
Like many of the Cubs relievers, inconsistency has plagued Rondon this season. However, his high ceiling and experience in this role should at least warrant him consideration for a closer role once Wade Davis (presumably) moves on after the 2017 season concludes.
Rondon becomes a free agent after the 2018 season. Maybe next season he serves as the stopgap closer for this team as the Cubs continue to season Carl Edwards Jr. for his eventual opportunity to close. This isn’t a bad scenario for the Cubs as Rondon has proven in the past that he is an elite closer.
Pedro Strop
Opportunities to close have been few and far between for Pedro Strop during his nine-year MLB career. However, that doesn’t mean that he isn’t closer material.
His mid-90s fastball with good sinking action coupled with a sharp slider and an occasional splitter gives him the ability to overpower hitters, change their eye level, and fool them with contrasting speeds. He served as the Cubs setup man back in 2015 and in 2016 up to the Chapman trade, so he isn’t a stranger to high leverage situations and has a 2.08 ERA in 16 postseason appearances. He is also a strikeout pitcher which is what you want from a closer. From 2014–2016, he posted a strikeout per nine inning rate north of ten in each of those seasons.
Strop remains under contract through 2018 with a team option for 2019. If Rondon doesn’t re-sign with the Cubs after the 2018 season, if the Cubs exercise the team option on Strop’s contract, and if neither Edwards Jr. nor Maples are ready to assume closing duties, then maybe the Cubs give Strop a shot.
However, there are a lot of ifs in this scenario and barring an emergency moving forward, the Cubs will probably stick with Strop as the setup man.
Carl Edwards Jr.
Flashback two months ago, and if you openly wondered who would become the closer of the future the immediate answer would have been Carl Edwards Jr.
The lanky righty’s mid-90s cut fastball coupled with a wipeout curve mirrors the profile of other elite closers around MLB and has inspired the confidence of his manager.
He’ll be a closer someday, there’s no doubt. The biggest thing with him is to not abuse him as he’s getting bigger and stronger. His stuff plays against righties and lefties and he knows how to pitch. Having been a starter a little bit (in the minors), it’s not unlike Wade. Wade knows how to pitch. Rafael Soriano — he knows how to pitch. C.J. knows how to pitch. So it’s nice to get those guys at the end of the game that aren’t just throwing that one weapon. -Joe Maddon
Edwards Jr. is 25 years old and won’t hit free agency until 2023. If he can grow into that closer role that’d be huge for a team that then wouldn’t have to pay for a pricey closer on the open market or obtain one through another costly trade.
However, Edwards’ Jr. control issues have led to streaky outputs. In 38 appearances prior to the All-Star break, he posted a 2.29 ERA while holding opponents to a .129/.257/.233 batting average. However, when the second half of the season hit Edwards wasn’t nearly as effective. He bombed his first 15 starts after the All-Star break, posting a 7.24 ERA while surrendering 12 walks in 13 innings of work. However, in his last four starts he hasn’t given up a run.
Edward’s ability to find consistency in his game will hinge on whether he can shore up his control. When he hits his spots with his fastball and spins his curveball close enough to the zone to make it look enticing to hitters, he is virtually unhittable. However, walks have sunk him this season and if he isn’t able to rectify his control than the Cubs may need to look elsewhere for their next closer.
Dillon Maples
Now to a guy that you probably don’t know much about.
MLB.com ranked 25-year-old Dillon Maples as the 14th-best prospect in the Chicago Cubs minor league system after not ranking him last year.
A dominant summer with Triple-A Iowa where he posted a 2.25 ERA and a 14.06 K/9 in 16 innings of work contributed to his ascension through the Cubs prospect rankings.
Maples features a fastball that reaches 95–100 mph with running action. He complements this heat with both a curve and a slider that scouts regard as plus pitches. Like so many hard-throwing relievers, control issues have plagued Maples (5.63 BB/9 rate with Triple-A Iowa this season) throughout his minor league career.
Pure stuff wise though, Maples has the pedigree of a closer. Whether that stuff will play at the MLB level remains to be seen, but Maples’ upside is intriguing for a team that will soon be looking for its next great closer.
The Cubs could always continue to address the closer spot through a trade or a free agent acquisition. However, homegrown talent is less expensive and the plethora of in-house options on this Cubs team may cause the team to look inward rather than outward for their next closer.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise linked in the text.

Paul Steeno spent 11 years pretending he was good at running. After hanging up the track spikes and officially becoming an elite hobby jogger, he decided to do something that he was actually good at: like writing about the Cubs. He is also a perpetually frustrated Chicago Bulls fan. This one time he got super lucky and ran 3:52 in the 1500 meter run.

