Jake Arrieta is Rewriting His Free Agency Narrative

Paul Steeno
Aug 24, 2017 · 3 min read
Beisbolinoloa/ via Flickr.com

The allure of an imminent payday is a powerful incentive.

Not that money is the lone engine powering Jake Arrieta’s I-told-you-I-was-still-good post All-Star break run. He is also a competitive, prideful person who wants to win. However, dreams of an imminent $200+ million free-agent payday aren’t hurting his motivation as he navigates through the final months of the 2017 season.

Contract extension talks between the Cubs and Arrieta reached a stalemate over the last couple season. By not giving into the Cubs, Arrieta essentially bet on his own abilities banking that his talent would warrant a more bloated contract on the open market than what the Cubs were willing to offer him via a team-friendly extension. He wanted to be paid in respect to his peers meaning his next boss will need to tack an extra zero onto the number printed on his next contract.

This gamble wasn’t surprising considering Arrieta’s overt self-confidence. Factor in his agent — the notorious Scott Boras — and the move goes from unsurprising to downright predictable.

However, for awhile it looked like Arrieta and Boras had made a costly miscalculation. Through 18 starts, Arrieta had a 4.35 ERA which ranked 31st out of 46 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings prior to the All-Star break. At 31 years old, Arrieta was still good, but his declining statistics coupled with noticeable velocity issues created questions how much money he would command in free agency.

But suddenly everything changed when Arrieta switched to beast mode after the All-Star break. In seven starts since the All-Star break, Arrieta has a 2.00 ERA and a 5–1 record and has posted quality starts in all seven of his games. For the time being, he has reclaimed his title as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, posting the sixth-best ERA in MLB in that time period. His sparkling 6.7 percent walk rate certainly factored into this streak as did the improved movement on his breaking pitches and sinker (eye test).

As perhaps the biggest starting pitching name on the open market this offseason (apologies to Yu Darvish and Marco Estrada), Arrieta will have his share of suitors. With Boras cranking out the negotiating, he may command a monster, nine-figure contract upwards of $200 million. Boras was the catalyst behind Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer’s seven year, $210 million free agent contract at the beginning of 2015. Arrieta and Boras will look for a similar number when the former enters free agency after this season.

It’s been an abrupt turn of events for Arrieta this season. His steady decline dating back to the end of the 2016 season until the All Star break this season caused his free agent stock to plummet. Teams would be reluctant about committing exorbitant money to a 31 year old with declining numbers, issues with control, and plunging velocity. The market would dry up on Arrieta and the Cubs could re-sign him to a shorter-term contract worth well below the value he would have commanded if he had become a free agent after his 2015 Cy Young campaign.

So the thinking went. But in the span of six weeks, Arrieta has scribbled out this narrative and rewrote a new one that will likely end with some team depositing a colossal paycheck into his bank account.

Whether that team is the Cubs remains unwritten, but the irony of the situation remains obvious.

The better Arrieta pitches the rest of this season, the harder it will become for the Cubs to re-sign him this winter.

Wrigley Rapport

Words From the Friendly Confines

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Paul Steeno

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Wrigley Rapport

Words From the Friendly Confines

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