Ten Predictions for the Chicago Cubs in 2021
Today marks the beginning of a new baseball season, and in honor of that here are some predictions for the Chicago Cubs in 2021. Some of these predictions are admittedly pretty safe, but others range up to questionable levels of certainty.
Without further ado, here are my ten predictions for the Chicago Cubs in the 2021 season.
Reasonable
The Cubs will hit 250 HR as a team…
The power potential in the Cubs lineup is undeniable. They have four players that have 30+ HR potential — two of which will be discussed momentarily — and several others that could knock out at least 20–25 HR each as well. One of those other guys to keep an eye on is David Bote, who is in line to split playing time at second base with veteran Eric Sogard.
Last season Bote hit 7 HR in 125 AB, an average of about 17.8 AB/HR. If he is able to get 450 at bats and maintain that HR rate, that would put him on pace for 25 HR this season. Admittedly that is an aggressive number since we don’t know what kind of timeshare he, Sogard, and others will have this year, but if he plays well and earns a bulk of the playing time he could officially break out this season and may even reach 30 HR.
…including 40 from Joc Pederson…
Joc was the team’s biggest addition this offseason, signing him to a one-year deal for him to play almost everyday and prove himself before hitting free agency again next year. If he keeps hitting the way he has throughout spring training through the regular season, then he may get MVP votes in addition to a big pay day.
Pederson tied for the major league lead in HR this spring as both he and Corey Seager hit eight longballs apiece. If he stays healthy all season (we’ll guesstimate about 550 AB) and slightly outperforms his 16.5 career AB/HR rate (we’ll guess 14 — his best season was 12.5 AB/HR in 2019) that would put him at about 40 HR for this year. That seems doable for the left-handed left-fielder, and there’s also a chance that he even outperforms that guesstimate and knocks even more balls over the fence.
…and 30 from Kris Bryant.
This prediction feels oddly safe and bold at the same time. It’s a safe bet because when he is healthy KB is one of the best hitters in the game owning a career 19.5 AB/HR rate, with his season best being the 16.5 AB/HR rate he posted in his MVP winning 2015 season. However it’s also a bold prediction to make given the fact that he has had some significant injury issues in two of the past three seasons. In his two injury-plagued seasons of 2018 and 2020 Bryant has a combined 17 HR in 520 AB, which results in an average of over 30 AB/HR.
While those two seasons do provide reason to be a bit cautious, the fact that he had a healthy 31 HR season in 2019 shows that he is still lethal when he is fully healthy. Plus, new seasons are supposed to be filled with optimism and positive thoughts. With that in mind a fully healthy season from Bryant with 550 AB at his career 19.5 AB/HR rate would put him at about 28 HR, and if he is back to being 100% there is no reason why he couldn’t outperform that rate and knock a few more over the wall this year.
Not too far out there
Kyle Hendricks will finish in the top-5 of the National League in ERA…
The Professor is no stranger to the NL ERA leaderboard as he has appeared in the top-15 in that category in four of the last five seasons. That includes not only his league best 2.13 ERA back in 2016, but also his 2.88 ERA from last season that ranked as the seventh-best mark in the NL. The fact that the Cubs starting rotation projects to have a lot of right-handed pitchers with repertoires that visually look very similar to Hendricks (90-ish MPH max, rely on movement/location) could be a detriment, but if anyone can work around that and produce strong results it’s him.
…and be a Cy Young finalist.
For the record I don’t necessarily think that Hendricks will win the Cy Young award (at least not as long as Jacob deGrom is still the monster that he is), but the idea of him finishing in the top three is not out of the realm of possibility. He has already done it before back in his aforementioned career year of 2016, and he put up some really strong numbers last year with a 2.88 ERA, 0.996 WHIP, and league leading 8.0 K/BB and 0.9 BB/9 rates — yes, he walked less than one batter per nine innings last year. If those numbers at least stay put this season he will for sure be in the Cy Young discussion.
David Ross will win the NL Manager of the Year award.
Grandpa Rossy spent his first season as the Cubs skipper last year and finished in third place for the award. He finished behind runner-up Jayce Tingler of the San Diego Padres and winner Don Mattingly of the Miami Marlins, and, while one of those guys could be in position to contend for this award again in 2021 (Tingler), so is Ross.
The Marlins had a surprise season last year and likely won’t contend for a playoff spot in a crowded NL East and the Padres have a strong roster on paper and expect to push for an NL West title, but if the Cubs make the postseason when they’ve done more subtracting than adding this offseason then you can’t count Ross out as a legitimate candidate for Manager of the Year.
Adbert Alzolay will spend the entire season in the starting rotation.
Alzolay was part of a stiff competition for the starting rotation this spring, but he ended up getting the spot as the team looks to see whether or not he can break out in 2021. While the team does have Alec Mills in the bullpen and guys like Shelby Miller in the minors that could step up and fill that last spot if anyone gets hurt or has significant struggles, I think Alzolay will be able to ward them off and stay in the rotation all season long.
That is asking a bit from a guy who is still a rookie in an organization that shows no hesitation sending guys down if they underperform (see Nico Hoerner). Although Alzolay likely won’t have an exceptionally strong season or get any Rookie of the Year votes, but he should pitch well enough to show that he could be a key piece of the future for the organization and earn his keep.
Getting a little crazy
Javier Baez will steal 20 bases.
While 20 stolen bases feels like such a low bar to set, it’s done with good reason as it’s no secret that the Cubs are not a team to take many chances on the basepaths. Since 2013, only two Cubs players have stolen at least 20 bases in a single season. One is Dexter Fowler, who swiped 20 bags on the dot in 2015. The other is Javy Baez who stole 21 bases in 2018, the only Cubs player with a double-digit stolen base total.
There is a bit of a push from the players to get the stolen base more involved again as totals have gone down league-wide for years. Baez is arguably the most entertaining baserunner to watch with his different slide styles and delayed steals to nab extra bases, and that makes him the perfect candidate to steal 20 bags in 2021. But even though he has the ability to do it and has done it before, the organization’s hesitance to give the green light makes it very difficult for this to happen.
*FUN FACT: The last player to steal at least 30 bases in a season was Tony Campana in 2012, and that year he had 25 SB by June 29 before missing time due to injury. There is no relevant significance to this statistic, I just really loved watching Campana when he was with the Cubs and wanted to mention him here. That is all.*
Zach Davies will receive at least one Cy Young vote.
Throughout pretty much his entire MLB career Davies has been compared to Kyle Hendricks in his pitch style, and now the two share a locker room in Chicago. I made this point talking about Hendricks earlier, but the fact that most of the projected starters are so similar — right-handers that don’t throw especially hard and rely on movement/location to get outs — could theoretically be a detriment since teams aren’t getting many different looks day-to-day.
While that possibility could come to fruition, that is also the exact same reason that Davies could flourish with the Cubs this year. Hendricks has had strong success working with the organization and the way they game plan against their opponents for years, and being a similar styled pitcher could help Davies reap those benefits as well. I don’t think he’ll finish as a finalist or even a top five candidate, but he could have a strong season that yields a last place vote from somebody.
Outlandish
The Cubs will lose to the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS in four games.
This is my outlandish prediction, if only for how specific it is. I do believe that the Cubs are a good enough team to reach the postseason and fight for a division crown, despite the starting rotation not nearly as strong without Yu Darvish and the bullpen still a question mark. The team is returning a large portion of a squad that won the NL Central division last year, and has an offense that has the ability to carry them to — if not completely through — the postseason.
While the St. Louis Cardinals added Nolan Arenado and the Milwaukee Brewers still have a lethal 1–2 punch in the bullpen with Devin Williams and Josh Hader, I do think that the Cubs narrowly edge both teams out in a tight divisional race. Having the worst record of the division winners puts them in a matchup with the 2-seed Atlanta Braves, where they will lose the series 3–1.
And for bonus points on this one, both wild card teams (San Diego Padres and New York Mets) who will fight to face the 1-seed Los Angeles Dodgers will have better regular season records than the Cubs.
Do you agree or disagree with any of these picks? Any predictions — safe or bold — that you have regarding the Cubs in 2021? Let us know here, on the site’s Facebook page, or my personal Twitter and watch with us as the season unfolds. At the end of the year we’ll come back to this and see just how right (or mostly wrong) I was and laugh at ourselves (or mostly just me) in the process.
Stay tuned to Wrigley Rapport here and on social media for future news and notes as we kick off the 2021 season. Go Cubs Go!
