What Do Yu Do?
With an off-season ahead full of questions and tough decisions, the most interesting one might be whether Yu Darvish pitches for the Cubs next season.
After losing six games in a row late here in September, including a four-game heart-breaking sweep to the rival Cardinals, the Cubs would essentially need a miracle to get into the postseason for the fifth consecutive season, something that has never been done in the long history of the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs would need to win all six of their remaining games as well as the Brewers to lose four out of six or the Nationals to lose five of seven just to tie. With the Brewers still having hopes for the division and their six games remaining against the Reds and Rockies, that seems to be a long-shot. The Nationals have four games left with the Phillies and three with the Indians, all at home, making that seem utterly impossible. Not to mention the fact for this to even be a factor, the Cubs would have to sweep the Cardinals in St. Louis with a division title potentially on the line.
As most Cubs fans, all of us here at Wrigley Rapport still have that glimmer of hope that a miracle will happen and the Cubs will shock the baseball world but even the most optimistic people can see the writing on the wall for this team. Regardless of what happens in the final six days of the regular season, this team has not performed anywhere near their expectations and changes will need to be made in many areas. Based on the veterans set to become free agents and their struggles to find consistency throughout the year, the bullpen was expected to be overhauled. The starting rotation, however, has become a different story.
Going into this season, the Cubs felt good with a rotation of Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Quintana, and Darvish that they felt gave them a chance to win everyday. It didn’t necessarily pan out that way. Each pitcher had their fair of struggles throughout the season and you get the sense that only Lester and Hendricks are guaranteed to be back next season. Quintana has a club option that the Cubs will surely exercise but he could potentially be a piece they could use in a trade if they wish to mix things up. Cole Hamels is set to become a free agent and the Cubs have a tough decision to make on whether they extend a qualifying offer that will be in the range of 19 million to a 35 year old starter.
Then, there’s Yu Darvish. After the injury plagued first season as a Cub, his 6-year 126 million dollar contract was quickly heading towards being seen as an albatross. Darvish and the Cubs were very cautious bringing him back and making sure that he stayed healthy for an entire season. Darvish showed flashes of his old self in the first half but the dreaded “big inning” killed most of his starts. Going into the All-Star break, Darvish was just 2–4 with an ERA of 5.01 to go along with 49 walks in just 97 innings. Despite punching out 111 hitters over those 97 innings, fastball command was an issue for Darvish and he uses his fastball to set up his nasty assortment of breaking pitches.
The first game out of the All-Star break is always a tough game because it can be difficult for players to regain their focus after a few days off, particularly for pitchers. Yu Darvish stepped up and told Joe Maddon that he wanted the ball in that game to get the team rolling in the second half and he didn’t disappoint. He threw 6 innings of 2 hit ball to go along with 8 punchouts. But the most important number was 1: the walks allowed by Darvish in that start. That start propelled Darvish to have a dominant second half in which he has only walked 7 batters in his 13 starts and 81.2 innings since the All-Star break.
The command of his 4-seam fastball was back and he was able to get ahead of the hitters to set up his slider, cutter, curveball, and splitter. He continued to continued to be the dominant strikeout pitcher that he has been throughout his career, striking out 118 batters to just those 7 walks in the second half. He was consistently giving the Cubs 6+innings and pitched to a 4–4 record and an ERA of 2.76 in that span. He was finally healthy and pitching with confidence and producing like the ace that the Cubs gave that big contract to.
That contract also includes the whole basis of this entire article. An opt-out clause after this season. If you would have told me at the start of this season that we would be talking about the possibility of Yu Darvish opting out, I would have told you that you’re crazy. Still, it seems like a long-shot that he will opt-out based on his comfort level in Chicago and the risk of finding a contract that is less than the one that he opts out of but it is not impossible.
This is an off-season where there a few other free agents and potential free agents that are comparable to Yu Darvish. Gerrit Cole is the name that highlights all free agents this offseason as he’s a right-handed power pitcher having a career year with over 300 strikeouts and is battling his teammate, Justin Verlander for the AL Cy Young Award. Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals is pitching like a Cy Young candidate the last 2 seasons and can opt out of his deal. Unlikely due to his injury but former Cub Jake Arrieta could opt out of his deal. Then you have a glut of good free agent starting pitchers such as Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, and Wade Miley.
This is surely something to keep an eye on as it means there could be a lot of turnover in starting pitching throughout the league with big market teams needing to fill those holes. Teams like the Red Sox and Yankees are always teams to be looking out for in free agency but both teams have had their issues with their starting pitching and could look to address that in the offseason. The Dodgers and Angels could potentially dip into that market as well.
All of that combined with Darvish’s second half resurgence doesn’t make it a no-brainer for Yu Darvish to opt-in to his contract to remain with the Cubs. Darvish and his agent could feel that the turnover in starting pitching throughout the league could potentially lead to a team overpaying for his services after losing out on some of the top free agent starters. Darvish’s camp would have to feel confident that they could land a similar if not better situation than Chicago as well as be able to beat the 4-years and 81 million left on Darvish’s contract with the Cubs. Could Darvish be pitching his last few games with the Cubs? It seems like a long-shot but is a possibility to keep in mind that could change the entire off-season for the Cubs.
Stephen Sciaraffa is currently a graduate student at Dominican University in River Forest, Illinois. Born in Chicago, Stephen spends his free time following the Cubs and taking in games at beautiful Wrigley Field with his dad. You can add him on twitter here
