Who Pitches for the Cubs in 2018?
In the midsummer of the year that the Chicago Cubs won their first World Series championship in 108 years, Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office had a phrase written on the wall of their conference room: Find Pitching. Poring over that phrase unceasingly led them to make trades for swingman Mike Montgomery (you know him as the man who threw the most important pitch in Cubs history) and Aroldis Chapman. The strategy that Epstein used to rebuild the Cubs is pretty clear. High draft picks are used on patient hitters with big bats, smart trades and smart free agency signings supplement the farm system, while the big bucks are for the big name pitchers. Think of the Cubs players that have been a part of the farm system at some point before breaking into the majors (it’s nearly identical to reading down the starting lineup). Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Contreras, Almora, and the lone pitcher from the group: Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs won’t spend $20 mil/year on a 30 year old slugger. They don’t need to. But coming winter of 2017–18 the Cubs will need to follow their old adage — Find Pitching. With John Lackey, Brett Anderson, and Jake Arrieta all on expiring contracts this year, the Cubs have some heavy lifting to do to find replacements in the rotation. There are a few routes they can take to do just that…
Play The Trade Market
The Cubs still have a loaded farm system even after their call ups over the last couple of seasons. Names like Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez and even big leaguers like Javy Baez and Albert Almora Jr. have been the subject of trade talks of late. The Cubs have been linked to talks involving Chris Archer or Jose Quintana. If they go small, they could rely on Lester and Hendricks to anchor the rotation post-2017 and look to make smaller trades like they did for Montgomery last season. Assuming the Cubs realize the gravity of losing big-time hurlers like Arrieta and Lackey, they will make one of the biggest deals of the 2017–18 offseason and trade away Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, and the beloved Javy Baez to get Chris Archer. Happ sticks around to learn under the mentorship of Ben Zobrist. Montgomery leaves the bullpen to join the rotation as well and the Cubs have a formiddable pitching staff once again. The fifth slot features five different pitchers throughout the year, as the Cubs understand they won’t be needed come playoff time anyways.
Rotation: Lester, Chris Archer (pictured), Hendricks, Montgomery, _______
Comb the Farm System
This route is the least likely, as the Cubs do not have MLB-ready starting pitching in the minors. The two names that stick out are Pierce Johnson and Eddie Butler. Both are currently at Triple-A Iowa. Other options from the Iowa Cubs are guys like Rob Zastryzny or Zac Rosscup. This route provides the Cubs with the least amount of security for rotation success in 2018, but has a lot of upside from there on.
Rotation: Lester, Hendricks, Montgomery, Pierce Johnson (pictured), Rob Zastryzny
Big Bucks, No Whammies
Sticking with the strategy used all throughout the rebuild, the Cubs could search the free agent pool for rotation pieces. With the availability of high-end starters being especially shallow, the name the Cubs will have at the top of their clipboards is Jake the Snake. Jake Arrieta will likely demand a top-dollar salary, but the Cubs will buy in anyways because that’s the name of the game. Once again, Montgomery slides into the 4th spot and the Cubs sign a low-end pitcher to round out the five. If Arrieta skips town and signs elsewhere, the Cubs turn to their second-tier market options in Marco Estrada (TOR), Francisco Liriano (TOR), and Jeremy Hellickson (PHI). They could also pick a starter from Triple-A for number five.
Rotation: Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Montgomery, Jered Weaver
OR Lester, Hendricks, Estrada, Montgomery, Eddie Butler
Bring Back the Oldies!
Theo takes one look at the upcoming free agent list, gets sentimental about old times, and trades Kyle Hendricks for Starlin Castro, sends Jon Lester to the Royals in a package with Kyle Schwarber for Jason Hammel and Travis Wood, and then is turned loose on free agents. Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, and Edwin Jackson all sign with the team on deals north of $25 mil/year and the reunion is on! Oh, and Kris Bryant is dealt to San Francisco to usher in the return of Jeff Sarmardzija. It’s the Cubs of 2011 again!
Rotation: Jeff Samardzija, Matt Garza, Scott Feldman, Edwin Jackson, and sadness. Lots of sadness (pictured).
The Cubs are still set up for success in 2018 and beyond. There are question marks right now as only two members of the curent rotation are set to return, but in Theo we trust. The Cubs could decide to re-sign a guy like Arrieta, make a big trade involving a lot of high upside prospects, or wait out the weather and see if they have the arm support in the minors. These Cubs don’t jump at every opportunity to spend big like the Cubs of old, so it would be surprising to see any of the big momentum moves happen. But there could be something big brewing throughout the summer.
