Why You should be excited about Jon Jay
He could be just the right addition to the Cubs lineup
After celebrating a tremendous World Series victory, my friends and I began to talk about what the off season would bring. We expected the departure of Dexter Fowler, understood Jorge Soler probably was on his way out, and knew Aroldis Chapman was likely headed back to the Yankees. One of the first things we discussed was how to fill the massive void left by All-Star Dexter Fowler. The very first name that came out of my mouth was Jon Jay.
Now, before I get started with why I’m thrilled to have Jon Jay roaming the outfield in the Friendly Confines, let me say this: Albert Almora is capable of playing at least replacement level baseball in center field this year. I’ve just had my eye on Jay for a while.
Before his most recent stint in San Diego, Jon Jay spent his career with the St. Louis Cardinals. Yuck, I know, but Jay has proved himself a very worthwhile player. According to FanGraphs, Jay has only rated negatively as an offensive player once in his career, 2015 in St. Louis, but this was an injury riddled campaign. Jay had wrist surgery prior to the 2015 season and the injury never fully healed, limiting him to only 79 games. Despite this, Jay would bounce back in 2016, posting a slash line of .291/.339/.389 in 90 games (missed a portion of the season due to a broken forearm). These numbers are much more in line with his career averages of .287/.352/.384.
The first thing that most will point out about Jay’s slash line is the lack of slugging and furthermore, the low OPS. My response to that is that Jay is not going to be expected to slug in this Cubs lineup, his job is going to be to keep the line moving near the bottom of the order, a role he should thrive in. From 2011–2014, Jay had an average OBP of .360 before two injury plagued seasons. Adding this potential into the seventh or potentially ninth spot in the lineup is a huge gain for the Cubs. If what Joe Maddon has said so far this off season remains true, Kyle Schwarber will be leading off and Jon Jay could be the perfect guy to set the table for him. Not to mention the two that will follow Schwarber in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Jay will function as an extension of the lineup; not many teams have a guy with a career OBP of .352 in the nine hole. He could be exactly what the Cubs need to take another step forward (crazy to even think about) offensively.
Jay is also not going to be asked to be an everyday player in 2017, which should help him maintain his health a bit better. Albert Almora will certainly get some playing time in what appears to be a platoon forming in center field. This well let Almora grow and settle in to his big league role for another season and if he falters, Jay is a fail safe. Jon Jay has nearly identical numbers against right-handed and left-handed pitching, something that isn’t very common for a left-handed hitter. For his career, Jay holds a .284 average against LHP and a .288 average against RHP, with an even .352 OBP against both LHP and RHP; a reassuring number in case of an Almora injury or slump. Again, I believe Almora can absolutely be the center fielder of the future, but Jon Jay allows him more time to grow and get acclimated to big league pitching.
All things considered, Jon Jay is not a flashy signing. He’s not going to hit 20 HRs or drive in 100 runs, but he’s going to run the bases well, he’s going to have good at bats, and he’s going to get on base. Having a veteran at the back end of the lineup who is not an easy out is very valuable. Speaking of value, according to FanGraphs, Jay was worth $9.1 million last year in only 90 games. The Cubs signed him for $8 million, another possible bargain buy for Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer.
-Rudy Soto is a passionate Cubs fan that is no relation to Geovany Soto nor does he enjoy the Indonesian dish with the same name.-
