Tom Brady or Derek Carr: Who will be the starting QB for the Las Vegas Raiders?
As the Raiders prepare to leave the Bay Area and head for Las Vegas, questions remain on who will be their starting quarterback come September. It remains to be seen if Derek Carr is a franchise quarterback in the NFL. The three-time Pro Bowler has broken some passing records, but he has also struggled under Jon Gruden’s system. In the past, Raiders head coach, Jon Gruden, has been an outspoken advocate for the 28-year-old quarterback; however, this is the NFL, and everyone knows that the NFL is a business.
Jon Gruden has shown that he is not afraid of change. After all, he traded Amari cooper and Khalil Mack during the height of their careers. While Derek Carr’s 4,054 passing yards were the most of his NFL career, he only threw 21 touchdowns. Although there were far worse stat lines than what Carr put up in 2019, he is not playing at an elite level. When factoring the data, Carr’s career numbers can be misleading. During Carr’s career, he passed for 22,793 yards along with 143 touchdowns, numbers that are quite respectable. But once you factor in the 62 interceptions, those numbers are far less impressive.
Derek Carr’s best target on the field is tight end Darren Waller. And while Waller delivered more than 651 receiving yards, the narrative remains: Who is to blame for Oakland’s passing game? Tyrell Williams did a respectable job with six touchdowns on the year, but it still wasn’t enough to sneak into the Playoffs. When you factor in how Derek Carr struggled when the temperature at kickoff was below 50 degrees, including earlier this season when the Raiders were clobbered in back-to-back games at the Jets and Kansas City, the decision on Carr becomes clearer.
If the Raiders decide yes, that Carr is worth the franchise quarterback tag, then the Raiders are off the table not only as a free agent destination, but a potential landing spot for a quarterback prospect in the first round of the NFL draft.
With six-time Super Bowl Champion quarterback Tom Brady considering an NFL future that could reportedly include interest from the Raiders, Carr’s job security remains in limbo. Jon Gruden has long been a fan of Tom Brady and adding arguably the best quarterback in NFL history to the roster would certainly fill seats in the new stadium. While Brady remains a New England Patriot, he has also never taken a snap for another NFL team. While the rumors swirl about the Raiders organization’s interest in Brady, there’s also a chance he’ll get an offer he can’t refuse. If there’s any organization prepared to offer Brady a blank check, it’s Raiders owner Mark Davis.
The question remains, would an aging Brady improve the Raiders over a younger Derek Carr? It looks great in hindsight, but Brady himself struggled in 2019. There is no doubt that Tom Brady is a football genius, turning mediocre rosters into Super Bowl champions. Tom Brady’s football IQ is invaluable and would add a level of knowledge and depth to the Raiders struggling offense. It would make sense to have a quarterback of Tom Brady’s caliber to mentor some of the younger players on the Raiders roster. But even if Brady returns to the Patriots, there are plenty of other players the Raiders could target at quarterback.
The Raiders could save money by releasing Carr and trade for Ryan Tannehill, or Cam Newton. Cam Newton has a league MVP on his resume, and Tannehill has shown resilience, almost reaching the Super Bowl as a backup quarterback for the Titans. In an NFL offseason filled with potential options at quarterback, Carr’s seat has never been hotter. But even if the Raiders don’t bring in a new starting quarterback, Carr’s job certainly isn’t guaranteed. An April scenario would be the Raiders keeping Carr and drafting his replacement. Of course, the expectation would be to sit the rookie for at least one season before unveiling him as the future of the franchise.
Would Carr be agreeable to drafting another quarterback, knowing that his days are numbered? Essentially, Carr knows the NFL is a business and your job is only as safe as your win to loss ratio. Derek Carr is getting paid like a franchise quarterback, but his numbers haven’t always reflected those of similar quarterbacks in the league. It’s not like Carr would have much of a choice, because while he could demand a trade, the Raiders don’t have to allow him one. It also wouldn’t be easy to persuade another team to take on an $18.9 million salary for a quarterback that hasn’t produced a winning record since 2016.
If the Raiders allow Carr to play out his current contract that hits their salary cap for more than $63 million over the next three seasons, it could mean the difference between winning now rather than later. The team can save $13.6 million in 2020 if they let him walk. Carr’s resume simply doesn’t justify that things are going to change, which puts the Raiders in the difficult position of having to decide if Carr is their guy for the next three years.
Las Vegas has always been known as a city of gambling, the only question remains, are the Raiders willing to take a gamble at quarterback? For now, Derek Carr’s job is safe, but for how long is anyone’s guess.
