As Maine Goes so Goes the Nation: What Comes After Trump?
Eight years ago the Pine Tree state swung sharply to the right when it elected its firebrand conservative Governor, Paul LePage. By choosing LePage Maine voters created what many deemed “the Trump before Trump.” Now, LePage is term-limited and unable to seek re-election. LePage became famous for his angry shots at reporters, inappropriate, often racist comments, and a particularly insulting phone call to Democratic state house representative Drew Gattine who he called a “cock-sucking socialist.” By his sixth year in office, few were surprised by this outburst.
The upcoming gubernatorial election offers Maine a chance to move beyond its Governor’s inflammatory shadow. The race is a toss-up between Democrat Janet Mills and Republican Shawn Moody. After years of service in Maine government, both as a legislator and now as Attorney General, Janet Mills is running to become Maine’s first female governor. Mills is a proven leader aiming to take the next step up the political ladder. Her opponent is Republican Shawn Moody, an auto body businessman with no experience in politics except for a run for Governor in 2010 against LePage as an independent. Eight years ago, Moody criticized LePage heavily yet this tone has now changed, as he often praises LePage’s legacy.
Although Maine leans blue in Presidential elections, it is more unpredictable in gubernatorial races. Maine has also been fiercely independent for decades, with more voters registered unenrolled than Democrat or Republican. It is also one of few states to have elected an independent to the Governor’s office, choosing James Longley in 1974 and Angus King in 1994 and 1998. Liberal-leaning King is now the Junior United States Senator from Maine as an independent. Before LePage, the governor was a fairly unpopular and moderate Democrat, John Baldacci. For many, LePage’s antics were an exciting change of pace from the unexciting Baldacci, analogous to the country’s choice of Trump over Clinton who many saw as dull.
In June, Janet Mills survived a long and impressive list of Democrats in the primary to advance to November. Mills faced six other candidates, including a former popular Speaker of the House, a longtime lobbyist for the Women’s caucus and well-know progressive Mainer, an impressive veteran and lawyer, among others. Additionally, this primary was the first in the nation to feature ranked-choice voting in which voters rank their choices of candidates rather than choosing only one. If no one reaches 50% of first-place votes, it becomes an instant runoff system in which second, third — and in this case — up to sixth place votes are assigned until a candidate reaches a majority. In the final weeks of the primary campaign, Eves and Sweet, the most progressive Democrats among the four in serious contention, teamed up to create a series of videos supporting each other's campaigns and asking for the second place votes of each other supporters. Combined with a mean-spirited argument between her campaign and Cote’s over negative and false advertising was enough to add uncertainty to Mills’ advantage in the polls. Although Mills came in first place on election night, she received under 50% of the vote and it took five rounds of runoff before she reached a majority. Moody, on the other hand, won in the first round with over 50% of the vote in a four-way Republican primary.
Interestingly enough, Mills will have to work with ranked choice voting again in November. It won’t be quite the same this time for Mills, as the two independent candidates, Alan Caron and Terry Hayes, are both polling around 4%. These candidates might prove consequential as, just last month, Mills and Moody were tied at 39% in a Suffolk University poll.
Despite the close polling, many analysts believe Moody has a clear advantage. He is well-liked and thought to have the solid policies and political smarts of LePage without all the raucous outbursts. Moody, in other words, is a man that many Mainers would love to share a beer with. Mills has a clear disadvantage of being a woman, especially in Maine’s more conservative and extremely rural second congressional district. It’s not by chance that the state has yet to elect a woman as its chief government official; sexism rages large throughout the state. Even as the more qualified candidate with a proven record of government service in a moderately left-leaning state, the fact that Mills could lose on the heels of eight years of an inflammatory conservative, male governor illustrates the role gender still plays in elections. This is true even amidst of the MeToo movement as an unprecedented number of women campaign in — and win — elections across the country.
Nevertheless, Mills is a proven fighter and winner, and to-date the race looks like a toss-up. Despite Moody’s popularity and the misogyny Mills faces, don’t be surprised if the year of democratic women is just enough to tip the scales in Mills favor.
