Justin Amash: Improbable Long Shot, or Political Disruption?
Congressman Justin Amash of Michigan’s Third District recently announced on Twitter that he intends to run for president in 2020. Amash left the Republican Party in 2019, and after a short stint as an Independent, became the first ever Libertarian member of Congress.
Historically speaking, Amash’s 2020 odds don’t look good. Every modern day third-party presidential candidate — other than Ross Perot — has not yet surpassed 5% of the votes nationally.
Now, however, may be the best time to run as the both parties suck candidate. In September 2018, a Gallup poll found that 57% of those polled believed that both major political parties “do such a poor job that a third major party is needed.”
Additionally, the two major party candidates — President Trump and Former VP Joe Biden — are vulnerable. President Trump remains unpopular in swing states, and Biden maintains a durable unpopularity among young Democrat voters. Not only that, but it remains unclear how the Tara Reade sexual assault allegation will affect the 2020 race.
At the end of the day, Amash suffers the fatal flaw all Libertarians inevitably endure.
Libertarians are the staunchly principled few who stand among the unprincipled majority.
Both parties cheer Libertarians when it suits them, and ignore them when it doesn’t. For example, blue voters will probably love that Amash is anti-Trump, favors Marijuana legalization, and has expressed strong support for the LGTBQ+ community. But those same voters will likely hate that Amash is pro-life, favors strong Second Amendment protections, and despises big government spending.
Several of Amash’s stances make him mostly untouchable for liberals. And with President Trump’s 93% approval rating with Republicans, Amash is left with a niche support base within the center-righters who don’t like President Trump.
There is polling to back this up. Sarah Isgur pointed this out on the Advisory Opinions podcast,
Voters who have a negative opinion of both Trump and Biden are voting for Biden six to one. So that means if you offer them a third option, that Biden will get hurt — probably — six to one compared to me [arguing from the prospective of] the Trump Team … [Looking at] the head-to-head matchup but with third-party options, Biden is ahead by six points. If you take away the third-party options, Biden jumps to a ten point lead. So that would tell me … that a third-party option with high name ID, that can actually make voters think their protest vote matters, wins [Trump] four points, potentially.
Amash’s base might get him to hover around 3%-5% nationally, which would be stellar. Keep in mind, Gary Johnson set the Libertarian record high with 4.5 million votes (3.28%) in 2016.
So, can Amash win? Barring some insane unpredictable circumstance, no he can’t. But he can have a considerable impact on a likely tight presidential race.
Modern politics consists of either party attempting to use government power to serve their ultimate policy goals. Nobody — or at least very few — voters welcome the Libertarian hey I don’t like the outcome, but it’s not the government’s job viewpoint.
It seems that, at least for now, the American political consensus is fine with Libertarian philosophy in small doses, but doesn’t ever want a full blown Libertarian President.
