PGA Tour Picks: Genesis Invitational
This week, the PGA Tour turns to Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. Many of golf’s top talents will collide in what should be a fantastic event.
The oddsmakers, according to CBSSports, list Rory McIlroy as the favorite going into the week, with Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm just behind.
Genesis Invitational Odds
Rory McIlroy 7–1
Justin Thomas 15–2
Jon Rahm 8–1
Dustin Johnson 14–1
Tiger Woods 16–1
Patrick Cantlay 16–1
Xander Schauffele 18–1
Tony Finau 20–1
Bubba Watson 22–1
Brooks Koepka 25–1
Hideki Matsuyama 25–1
Jason Day 33–1
Adam Scott 33–1
Paul Casey 40–1
Justin Rose 40–1
Matt Kuchar 45–1
Marc Leishman 50–1
Phil Mickelson 50–1
Patrick Reed 50–1
Jordan Spieth 50–1
Bryson DeChambeau 55–1
Abraham Ancer 66–1
Sergio Garcia 66–1
J.B. Holmes 66–1
Kevin Na 75–1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 80–1
Nick Taylor 80–1
Ryan Moore 90–1
Keegan Bradley 100–1
Below are my picks for who’s a top ten lock, who you should fade, and who will win at Riviera:
Top Ten Lock: Tony Finau
My top ten lock this week is an easy one, Tony Finau. After 151 career events on the PGA Tour, Finau has minted 35 top tens. With a T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open and second place finish at the Waste Management Open, Finau is in great form coming into this week. Not only that, but Finau has a solid recent history at Riviera (coming in at 15th and 2nd in 2019 and 2018).
Finau will almost certainly be in contention all week, but whether he can convert his solid play into a second PGA Tour win remains to be seen.
It’s important to note, however, Rory, JT, and Rahm are all playing fantastic golf, and it wouldn’t shock anyone to see these guys at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Fade: Phil Mickelson
Who to avoid this week was a tough pick, since so many of the top guys are all playing great, but Phil is the fade this week. The oddsmakers seem to agree, since he’s currently sitting at 50–1 to win. At this point in his career, Sunday contention Phil is more anomaly than norm. Last week we saw him shoot a rough 74 on Sunday after looking like vintage Phil all week. I don’t think anyone should count on Phil playing great two weeks in a row.
Winner: Bubba Watson
All of the players at the top of the odds list are great picks to win this week, but odds-on value pick is Bubba Watson. Bubba has great value at 22–1, especially considering he’s a three time Riviera winner (2014, ’16, ‘18).
Bubba’s also in great form with a T3, T6, and T8 in his past three events. Again, all the guys at the top are playing fantastic, and you can make an argument for any of the top guys, but if you are looking for value, Bubba is your guy.
What About Tiger?
With him looking great in 2019–20, my heart really wanted to take Tiger to win this week. But Tiger doesn’t have a great history at Riviera, and has only played one event so far in 2020. I think it’s too early to know how Tiger will perform, and with 16–1 odds, the value just isn’t there this week.
What About Spieth?
Basically everyone, including myself, is hoping to see 2020 Spieth get into 2015 Spieth form. Unfortunately, Jordan seems unable to put four complete rounds together. Typically, his recent top tens have seemingly come from struggling early, and then playing out of his mind on Sunday (see last week).
After a great Sunday last week resulting in a backdoor top ten, there might be some optimism going into this week, but at this point I don’t think Spieth’s game is reliably ready for week in, week out success on the PGA Tour. Although, most of us are really hoping he can turn it around.
Twitter: @matthew_buzard, @readZEAL
