The Road to $100,000 per coin: Relief or Disbelief?

Published in

The Capital

4 min readAug 4, 2021

Spain is attempting to grab the bull by the horns by introducing a bill, which, if passed, would allow home-owners to pay off their mortgage using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, as BTC/USD traverses familiar territory within the eternal trading range, key on-chain metrics suggest that demand for bitcoin is ticking higher as the available supply shrinks.

Let’s dig in.

Spain introduces Bill to Allow Mortgage Payments using Crypto

A bill presented by the leading opposition party in Spain, Partido Popular, would allow for the homeowners to pay off their mortgages using bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

According to the text of the “Digital Transformation Law,” homeowners would be able to pay their mortgages using crypto, while the real estate sector would be able to use crypto to invest in mortgage pools.

Check out the full article here!

Technically speaking

BTC/USD: Relief or disbelief?

Bitcoin is neutrally traversing in a range after an extended period of extremely negative sentiment and sustained downwards momentum.

A key question is whether this is a disbelief rally (where the market doubts the new bull trend) or simply a bearish relief rally within a larger downtrend.

On Monday, we charted levels of interest for sidelined bulls to accumulate bitcoin in anticipation of a potential exit from the range towards $50,000-$52,0000. This analysis has not changed.

As such, we’ll turn our attention to key on-chain data.

Exchange Outflows spike

The exchange net position change data point maps out the rate of coins flowing in (green) or out (red) of all exchanges. In the last 7 days, we saw extremely large volumes of coins flow out of exchanges, comparable to the peak outflows seen in November 2020.

In fact, the rate hit over 100,000 Bitcoin per month in outflows this week. One likely reason for the increase in exchange outflows is due to increasing regulatory concerns over Binance. However, overall (net), these coins are not making their way to other exchanges.

Balance on Exchanges Reaches 2021 lows

This is evidenced by the steep drop of the aggregate balance still held on exchanges, for which holding have returned to the 2021 lows of circa 13% of the circulating supply.

This represents a near full rewind of the massive inflows in volumes observed during the May capitulation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin entities’ net growth spiked to never seen before levels (7-day moving average), as noted by on-chain analyst Lex Moskovski on Twitter. The rate of growth for network participants has never been this high, surpassing both the 2017 peak and figures from the most recent all-time high. The distinction between ‘entities’ and ‘wallet addresses’ is noteworthy here since ‘entities’ are a far more accurate metric for organic network growth than individual wallets (which can be easily created and therefore easily manipulated.

Could the much-anticipated supply shock come sooner than we think? These data sets appear to suggest as much.

Either way, Bitcoin will very likely surpass all-time highs again sometime this year.

Catch you later.

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